A 65,000 beat in January payrolls is more important than a 1 million benchmark contraction.
Donald L. Luskin
The Warsh-Bessent Fed-Treasury Accord
Monday, February 9, 2026
How to radically shrink the Fed’s balance sheet without quantitative tightening. It’s easy.
Our Hot Take: It’s Warsh
Friday, January 30, 2026
He’s the best. So why would Trump pick him? And why would he agree to do it?
On the January FOMC, and Trump in Check
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
A boring FOMC meeting, as expected. All the drama is in the Trump/Powell chess match.
If These Risks Were Real, We’d Be Worried. Happily, They Are Not.
Monday, January 26, 2026
The best strategy for investing in 2026 may be to avert your eyes. Let us do the watching.
The SCOTUS Tariff Decision that Didn’t Bark in the Night
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
The Court didn’t strike down tariffs Friday, or today. But it will.
On the December Jobs Report
Friday, January 9, 2026
The immigration disruption to labor seems to be over. The AI disruption is slowly beginning.
Predictions for 2026 (And a Very Hot Take on Venezuela)
Monday, January 5, 2026
How to play the sixth year of the post-pandemic productivity supercycle.
On the October/November Jobs Report
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
October’s payroll contraction is a big one – but it doesn’t mean we’re in recession.
2026 Oil Outlook
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Sentiment is about as washed out as it gets. Wall Street sees a crash, we see a bottom.