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ARCHIVES: TREND MACROLYTICS REPORTS
Donald Luskin

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December FOMC
December 17, 2014
From "considerable time" to "patient." It doesn't matter -- lift-off is still on for mid-year.

MACROCOSM
Oilmageddon
December 16, 2014
After the falling knife, a new equilibrium -- below the crippling oil prices of the last decade.

MACROCOSM
Yes, It's Another Greece Crisis
December 10, 2014
But the world has moved on, and even in the worst case the euro currency is secure.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 5, 2014
In the sixth year of the cycle, and despite freezing weather, the best November yet.

MACROCOSM
Failure to Launch at the ECB
December 3, 2014
Six months in the making, Draghi's pet ABS purchase program is an embarrassing flop.

MACROCOSM
Buy More Stuff
November 21, 2014
Dear Mario: All is forgiven. Love, Bundesbank. PS: Big ABS purchases start today.

POLITICAL PULSE
Modeling the 2016 Presidential Election
November 12, 2014
Donald Luskin

You heard it here first -- GOP by 145 Electoral College votes, and congressional control too.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 7, 2014
Unemployment down, labor force up -- that's "solid." And it makes the Fed effectively easier.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB November Policy Decision
November 6, 2014
Preparations for new easing measures -- while Draghi eases concern about his authority.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the 2014 Midterms
November 5, 2014
It's a "wave." Now we wait to see how the GOP will govern: for growth, or brinksmanship?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October BOJ Policy Meeting
October 31, 2014
If you can't fire the third arrow, at least first the first arrow a couple trillion more times.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October FOMC
October 29, 2014
Almost six years after it was born with a bang, QE dies with a whimper. We won't miss it.

MACROCOSM
Stop Stressing, Start Lending
October 24, 2014
Europe's banks have completed six years of massive deleveraging. Enough is enough.

MACROCOSM
The ECB's Real Agenda
October 22, 2014
Draghi's policies are aimed at supporting reform, not fighting phony emergencies.

MACROCOSM
Don't Let a Good Oil Crisis Go to Waste
October 21, 2014
Donald Luskin

Low oil prices are a gift for the global economy, but there will be winners and losers.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Something You Probably Didn't Know about Ebola
October 14, 2014
If Ebola is going to infect the whole world, why are new cases in Africa declining?

MACROCOSM
Back in the Hot Zone
October 10, 2014
The equity risk premium has reverted to levels appropriate for a financial pandemic.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September Jobs Report
October 3, 2014
Bad news revised away -- and more fake fuel for the narrative that the Fed will tighten.

MACROCOSM
No Way ECB QE
October 1, 2014
All that's preventing sovereign buys are feasibility, timing, politics and Draghi's wishes.

POLITICAL PULSE
Mid-term Cliffhanger
September 24, 2014
Donald Luskin

41 days till we may have to wait 32 more days to know who controls the Senate.

FED SHADOW
The Fed's Growth-Friendly "Dot" Gap
September 19, 2014
Treasuries are waking up to what stocks have known all year: "the Yellen Rule" could work.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September FOMC
September 17, 2014
Dots and dissents be damned. The ultra-dovish "Yellen Rule" is completely intact.

MACROCOSM
The Untied Kingdom
September 10, 2014
Worst case without Scotland: gilts get slightly junked. But no currency crisis, no contagion.  

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August Jobs Report
September 5, 2014
A bad jobs report -- but the key metric in this labor market continued to improve.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB August Policy Decision
September 4, 2014
As we expected, an ABS purchase scheme -- along with a surprise rate cut (the last one).

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Attack of the 15 Basis Point Deflation Monster
September 2, 2014
A dubious deflation emergency in Europe isn't justification for such low US Treasury yields.

MACROCOSM
"Whatever It Takes" Comes to Jackson Hole
August 25, 2014
Off-script again -- Draghi drops a QE bombshell at the Fed's conference.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen at Jackson Hole
August 22, 2014
Unemployment is cyclical. No, it's structural. Wait -- it's both! 

MACROCOSM
So Close to Recovery, So Close to Doom
August 7, 2014
QE is coming to the euro area as bank lending recovers, and trade war with Russia loom.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
August 1, 2014
Markets are in a tantrum about the end of QE and ZIRP -- this jobs report won't slow the Fed.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July FOMC
July 30, 2014
Yellen's first hawkish dissent. But under her "optimal control," it couldn't matter less.

MACROCOSM
Whatever It Takes Turns Two
July 25, 2014
The greatest central bank intervention that was never made -- it ended the end of the world.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On MH17
July 18, 2014
Putin likes looking evil, but not stupid. The tragedy will likely cool things down in Ukraine.

MACROCOSM
The Low Hanging Fruits of Our Labor
July 15, 2014
Short-term unemployment has all but vanished -- long-term is on the way down now, too.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 3, 2014
Mid-cycle? Five years into a sluggish expansion, the labor market is at its strongest so far.

MACROCOSM
How's That Working For You, ECB?
July 2, 2014
So many new policies, so few results -- and asset purchases are pushed far into the future.

MACROCOSM
The Stench of CrISIS
June 25, 2014
High oil prices are the hidden hand behind slow growth -- and the risk is going up.

FED SHADOW
It's Yellen's World, and We're Just Living In It
June 18, 2014
Where yields have to go down to go up, and inflation is above 2% so prices can be stable.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 6, 2014
Meet the new cyclicality. 76 months to create 98 thousand jobs for 15 million new workers.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB June Policy Decision
June 5, 2014
Draghi begs the question: how many pea-shooters does it take to make one bazooka?

MACROCOSM
Going Negative?
June 4, 2014
In the ECB's quixotic quest for inflation, ABS purchases are more likely than negative rates.

MACROCOSM
Europe's Fake Quake
May 27, 2014
It's all over but the shouting -- because that's all that happens in the EU Parliament.

MACROCOSM
Russia Recovers, Emerging Markets Re-Emerge
May 21, 2014
The dramatic rebound across emerging markets sends a strong global growth signal.

MACROCOSM
The Yellen Rule is Taylor Minus Two
May 19, 2014
Treasuries have adapted to a dovish new Fed regime without QE or ZIRP.

MACROCOSM
Earnings to the Rescue
May 12, 2014
Amidst disappointing 2014 equity returns, we're seeing the best upgrade rate in years.

MACROCOSM
Draghi Commits to QE
May 9, 2014
A broad-based asset purchase program is all but inevitable for June. But will it matter?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 2, 2014
Great cyclical news, lousy structural news. And the Fed ditched the Evans Rule just in time.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April FOMC
April 30, 2014
A bland statement after Yellen's carnival of errors -- seems she is learning on the job.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q1 GDP
April 30, 2014
Perfectly in line with our climate model -- but should have beat like the rest of the data.

MACROCOSM
No Pain, No Ukraine
April 15, 2014
Almost a war now, but no escalating sanctions.  Why would Europe suffer for a failed state?

MACROCOSM
Growth: Over Valued and Under Attack
April 9, 2014
As winter ends, cyclical and political triggers for the worst growth stocks chill in five years. 

LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
April 4, 2014
Relief, but the third coldest March in 20 years. By history, should have been just 36,000 jobs.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen's First Public Speech as Fed Chair
March 31, 2014
The words of a politico, not an independent policymaker. Unless she grows, trouble ahead.

MACROCOSM
Why Putin is Smarter than Stalin…
March 26, 2014
…and Merkel is smarter than Hitler. Both have learned from historical necessity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March FOMC
March 19, 2014
Yellen unchained -- no rules. Nevertheless, the era of infinite policy accommodation is over.

MACROCOSM
Crimea Doesn't Pay
March 11, 2014
Europe might appease Russia -- is it just too expensive to fight a sanctions-war?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 7, 2014
Sign of strength: by the data, this near-historic February chill should have produced zero jobs.

MACROCOSM
Crimea River
March 4, 2014
Donald Luskin

Putin stand downs, blames the Fed. And the world survives another test of contagion.

MACROCOSM
Renzinomics Renaissance
February 20, 2014
Once more with feeling: an unelected prime minister brings supply-side reforms to Italy. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen's First Congressional Testimony
February 11, 2014
In her own words: more focus on labor and financial regulation; less on inflation.

MACROCOSM
When PIIGS Fly
February 10, 2014
They're the best performers in 2014, despite assaults from emerging markets and Germany.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January Jobs Report
February 7, 2014
Can't blame the weather this time. But now we're just 8 basis points from the Evans Rule.

MACROCOSM
Weather? Or Not?
February 6, 2014
Economic effects of the cold are exaggerated -- and so is the threat from emerging markets.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q4 GDP
January 30, 2014
Beating the "new normal" now for three quarters running. Beating the "old normal," too.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January FOMC
January 29, 2014
The emerging markets currency crisis doesn't even get a mention. Tapering is now the trend.

MACROCOSM
I Shall Fear No Taper
January 27, 2014
If tapering QE made last week's turbulence, then failing to taper only adds to global risk.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Last Big Call
January 21, 2014
It takes two tapers to make a trend, and a locked-in fait accomplis for Yellen.

POLITICAL PULSE
Bully For Him
January 17, 2014
The pro-growth policy outlook has only improved with Christie's artful crisis management.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 10, 2014
Too surprising and too out-of-pattern. It will be revised away, and won't deflect tapering.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB January Policy Decision
January 9, 2014
Euro area inflation is far below the ECB's target -- but why take any risk to fix it?

MACROCOSM
2013: The Year of Living Not Dangerously
December 31, 2013
Lower equity risk premia -- check! Faster global growth -- not yet, but coming in 2014.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December FOMC
December 18, 2013
Bernanke hands Yellen a fait accomplis, and a spoonful of sugar to help the medicine go down.

FED SHADOW
Stanley Fischer: Game of Chairs
December 12, 2013
Is this brilliant man supposed to play Dick Cheney to Janet Yellen's George W. Bush?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 6, 2013
We just hit 7% unemployment -- where Bernanke had promised tapering would be all done.

FED SHADOW
Yellen and Screamin' at the Fed
December 5, 2013
Bernanke may taper in January, to defer the day when the FOMC rejects Yellen's leadership.

MACROCOSM
Regime Change for Equities
November 26, 2013
The mean equity risk premium will shift lower -- which means that stocks are still cheap.

MACROCOSM
Japan Breaks Out -- Does It Matter?
November 19, 2013
Abe had the guts to back off from carbon targets -- but so far it's his only profile in courage.

FED SHADOW
So Welcome to the Yellen Years
November 15, 2013
Rigid, dogmatic, nervous, poorly prepped -- and willing to deny the facts to defend policy.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 8, 2013
Another upside surprise, in a world that is suddenly less risky and more growth-friendly.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November ECB Policy Decision
November 7, 2013
With QE ruled out, the ECB has pretty much fired all its bullets. The euro area is on its own.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 GDP
November 6, 2013
Big upside surprise, small downpayment on the output gap. Therein lies the opportunity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Elections in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama
November 6, 2013
We told you -- post-shutdown, the GOP can hold the House and make gains in the Senate.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October FOMC
October 30, 2013
An increasingly Yellen-dominated FOMC takes a victory lap. Why aren't markets happier?

MACROCOSM
Inflation in Fashion
October 29, 2013
A less risky economy, Yellen, and the politics of her confirmation put inflation back in play.

MACROCOSM
Europe's Ghosts of Stress Tests Past
October 22, 2013
A risk-off spasm over ECB bank tests ignores the euro area's quantum turnaround.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September Jobs Report
October 22, 2013
Jobs Tuesday is eerily like every Jobs Friday in the Not So Great Expansion.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Shutdown and Debt Limit Deal
October 17, 2013
A contrarian case: the GOP won! Either way, stalwart markets prove the era of risk-off is over.

POLITICAL PULSE
Down to the Wire, and Beyond
October 15, 2013
Almost there: another 2013 risk-event with no contagion -- plus the GOP gets a do-over.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen for Fed Chair
October 9, 2013
It means Obama is scared. The GOP offer to put sequesters into play will start negotiations.

POLITICAL PULSE
Let's Hope the Politicians are Lying
October 7, 2013
Boehner and Obama both say we're heading for default. Game theory likely says otherwise.

MACROCOSM
Time for Abe to Show Us the Money
September 30, 2013
Japan faces two tax cliffs -- and so far no pro-growth labor or product market reforms.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Pending Government Shutdown
September 30, 2013
It'll be America's 18th shutdown. They've all been resolved. This one will be, too.

POLITICAL PULSE
Once More unto the Debt Crisis, Dear Friends
September 25, 2013
The next systemic threat? Likely less market risk and political risk here than meets the eye.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September FOMC
September 18, 2013
Donald Luskin

No taper -- but QE3 never lowered yields, so why risk prolonging it now that they've risen?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Larry Summers' Withdrawal
September 15, 2013
The Fed is spared assault on its credibility and independence: another systemic risk avoided.

MACROCOSM
A Major Upgrade to our Strategic Outlook
September 12, 2013
After four years of the Not So Great Expansion, growth acceleration is finally possible.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August Jobs Report
September 6, 2013
Same old labor market. But Syria and nominating Bernanke's successor could defer tapering.

MACROCOSM
A Little Distant Gunfire
August 29, 2013
The summer without systemic risk is over.  But we don't think the bad old days are back.

MACROCOSM
No Guns this August
August 19, 2013
Free from systemic risk, markets are about at normal. So when will normal growth return?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
August 2, 2013
Despite a big jobs miss, today's data makes the Fed more likely to start tapering.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July FOMC
July 31, 2013
The FOMC admits the risk of too-low inflation. Tapering may not come as soon as expected.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q2 GDP, and the Intellectual Property Revolution
July 31, 2013
The new information economy is bigger than we knew -- but it's not growing any faster.

POLITICAL PULSE
End of the Beginning for Abenomics
July 22, 2013
Abe has a strong mandate now. Free trade talks will be the first test of how he'll use it.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Deathbed Confession
July 11, 2013
As he ponders his legacy, he says don't worry about tapering: QE never mattered anyway.

MACROCOSM
Escape from Taperphobia
July 8, 2013
Stocks no longer in lockstep with bonds -- but it's about lower risk, not higher growth.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 5, 2013
It feeds the tapering beast. But the labor market hasn't improved, and deflation threatens.

MARKET CALLS
US Fixed Income Strategy: The Fed Irrelevancy Hypothesis
July 2, 2013
QE has no effect on yields. They've been rising for a year because systemic risk is lower.

FED SHADOW
Taper Your Tapering Expectations
June 27, 2013
Threats in credit markets, and weak data, make it unlikely the Fed will taper as planned.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June FOMC
June 19, 2013
One dissent over inflation risk. Another over deflation risk. And by the way, no tapering.

FED SHADOW
To Taper or Not to Taper?
June 17, 2013
Rising Treasury yields may be saying the Fed doesn't need so much foam on the runway.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June BOJ Policy Meeting
June 11, 2013
The BOJ wisely sticks to its strategy -- higher JGB yields mean that it's working.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 7, 2013
By Bernanke's own metric, the labor market just got worse. How can the Fed taper now?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On April Income and Consumption
May 31, 2013
This can't go on. Consumption tracks 2012's sluggish trend, while disposable income falls.

MACROCOSM
Japan: At Long Last a Correction
May 31, 2013
The BOJ can't have both higher inflation and lower yields -- but that's making a buyable dip.

FED SHADOW
QE Steps Down Before Bernanke Does?
May 23, 2013
His signal was unmistakable. But with deflation risk increasing, he can't follow through.

MACROCOSM
Equity Risk Premiumania!
May 20, 2013
The bull cases and bear cases based on the ERP are equally wrong.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
The Abe Restoration
May 10, 2013
Abenomics isn't just policy -- it's part of a Japan's cultural and geopolitical awakening.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 3, 2013
Revisions to March's disaster are welcome, but the labor market remains stagnant at best.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May FOMC
May 1, 2013
The Fed acts oblivious to a here-and-now deflation threat, and deteriorating data.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q1 GDP
April 26, 2013
Another blah growth quarter, another miss. And the monthly internals look even worse.

MACROCOSM
Gold and Commodities: Breaking Bad
April 15, 2013
QE3 has failed. Gold points to deflation, commodities point to continued anemic growth.

MACROCOSM
Yes, But…
April 11, 2013
US stocks still can't compete with Japan or the euro area on value or growth.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
April 5, 2013
Risk-relief, a housing recovery and an energy boom aren't overcoming higher taxes.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April BOJ Policy Meeting
April 4, 2013
A proud central bank sacrifices its independence for the sake of reflation and growth.

MACROCOSM
New Highs, Same Old Cloudy Skies
April 1, 2013
Slow earnings growth, energy and housing tailwinds, and a head-fake consumption spurt.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March FOMC
March 20, 2013
Steady as she goes in a weak expansion -- but maybe the first hint that LSAPs could end.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Is the Fed Moving the Stock Market?
March 11, 2013
The Fed isn't printing money, it's printing risk -- to the tune of $1 billion a day in US stocks.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 8, 2013
A headline surprise hides slowing improvement in unemployment, and stays the Fed's hand.

MACROCOSM
The Crisis Score is Four for Four
March 4, 2013
Fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, sequesters and the continuing resolution -- done! But now what?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Kuroda and Iwata at the BOJ
February 25, 2013
Abe picks doves and interventionists -- despite G-20 pressure, he has followed through.

MACROCOSM
The Incredible Shrinking Equity Risk Premium
February 21, 2013
Stocks are vulnerable to correction because they're neither a value nor a growth proposition.

MACROCOSM
Do the Sequesters Matter?
February 8, 2013
Not so much. A "trillion in deficit reduction" is really only a $109 billion one-off spending cut.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January Jobs Report
February 1, 2013
Dramatic (but predictable) upward payroll revisions, and no effect on the Fed's Evans Rule.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January FOMC
January 30, 2013
Donald Luskin

No policy changes, no more details on the Evans Rule. But a slight shift to the hawkish.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q4 GDP
January 30, 2013
A tax-driven surge in personal income could drive mutual fund flows and mask 2013 weakness.

FED SHADOW
2013 Outlook: Doves Ruled Out at the Fed
January 25, 2013
By its own formulas, asset purchases ought to stop this year, and rates hikes start in the next.

POLITICAL PULSE
Oh What a Relief It Is
January 23, 2013
The GOP lays down its nuclear option of debt default. What can Washington do for an encore.

MARKET CALLS
2013 Outlook: Think Globally, Shrink Locally
January 14, 2013
US stocks will pay as we move off the supply side, and the rest of the world moves toward it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 4, 2013
Coming to the jobs market in '13: new disincentives to work, and more incentives to not work.

MACROCOSM
Tax Hikes Have Consequences
January 2, 2013
Taxes are going up on everyone -- big. It's a blow to growth, and there's no growth to spare.

POLITICAL PULSE
Last Day
December 31, 2012
Avoid the cliff, damage growth. Go off the cliff, kill growth. Only least-bad outcomes now.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Plan B for Busted
December 21, 2012
The volatility event may have arrived, and the doomsday scenario rears its very ugly head.

POLITICAL PULSE
Plan B for Better
December 20, 2012
Higher taxes, yes. But with "Plan B" the tax code will no longer be permanently temporary.

POLITICAL PULSE
Plan B for Blame Game
December 19, 2012
A tactical retreat that could be a better last-minute safety valve as the cliff approaches.

POLITICAL PULSE
Toxic Fudge
December 17, 2012
Boehner offers hikes to tax rates and the debt ceiling. Where's the upside in that?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December FOMC
December 12, 2012
So much for the Fed "targeting jobs." Turns out inflation is still a binding constraint.

POLITICAL PULSE
How the GOP Could Survive the Cliff
December 10, 2012
Passing a pre-emptive tax hike bill in the House would restore the balance of terror.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 7, 2012
A seemingly stronger economy allows cliff brinksmanship, and makes a GOP cave likelier.

MACROCOSM
What If the GOP Caves?
December 3, 2012
At least we wouldn't fall off the cliff. But don't kid yourself -- we'd still end up in the ditch.

POLITICAL PULSE
Back to the Cliff
November 28, 2012
Markets gave Washington a pass for Thanksgiving. Now, the battle of the cliff begins.

POLITICAL PULSE
Photo-Op at the Cliff's Edge
November 19, 2012
Friday's White House Kumbaya makes a prettier media narrative, but the reality is still ugly.

POLITICAL PULSE
My Way, or the Cliff
November 16, 2012
Obama sounds like he wants to go over the cliff. But the Petraeus matter is a new wildcard.

POLITICAL PULSE
Mandate for Volatility
November 13, 2012
The fiscal cliff negotiations begin -- worlds collide. The market is finally waking up to the risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the 2012 Election
November 7, 2012
Onward toward the fiscal cliff. The fat tail risk has just gone way, way up.

POLITICAL PULSE
What If Obama Wins?
November 6, 2012
Close call worst of all -- if Obama thinks he has a mandate and the GOP thinks he doesn't.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 2, 2012
Donald Luskin

Last data before the election. Our model's final call: Obama by 122 Electoral College votes.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 GDP
October 26, 2012
More of the same: not good enough for Obama, not bad enough for Romney.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October FOMC
October 24, 2012
With Bernanke reported to be on the way out, the Fed maintains a defensive crouch.

POLITICAL PULSE
What if Romney Wins?
October 23, 2012
Worst-case cliff scenarios come off the table, but considerable uncertainties would remain.

POLITICAL PULSE
October is Half Over -- Where's the Surprise?
October 17, 2012
The race is narrowing, but Obama will probably win. The march toward the cliff starts soon.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September Jobs Report
October 5, 2012
Obama loses the debate, but unemployment breaks his way. And the doomsday clock ticks.

MARKET CALLS
Positioning for the Fiscal Cliff
October 3, 2012
Markets aren't pricing the coming volatility, but protection from it is eminently feasible.

POLITICAL PULSE
TrendMacro's Election Model
September 28, 2012
Obama by 154 Electoral College votes. The economy isn't weak enough for Romney to win.

POLITICAL PULSE
Step by Step, Toward the Cliff
September 25, 2012
As Romney flails, trial balloons from Washington point to volatility and bad compromises.

FED SHADOW
Rethinking QE3
September 18, 2012
Less than meets the eye for the economy, but more than meets the eye for gold.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September FOMC
September 13, 2012
Has Bernanke joined John Roberts as a Bush appointee working to re-elect Obama?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August Jobs Report
September 7, 2012
This won't call the election -- ambiguous conditions on the ground will.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke at Jackson Hole
August 31, 2012
An open door to QE. But with the election near and the economy stable, no promises.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Ryan at the RNC
August 30, 2012
The battle is joined. Volatility is too cheap coming into what is now a referendum election.

MACROCOSM
New High, Fat Tail
August 22, 2012
Fully recovered, stocks look better than ever -- but political risk is greater than ever, too.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Ryan as VP Nominee
August 13, 2012
If this gambit works, the fiscal cliff goes away. If it fails, the risk is even greater.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August FOMC
August 1, 2012
The Fed may have just decided the election -- which may be the most it can do for growth.

MACROCOSM
Cupertino, We Have a Problem
July 25, 2012
Not just Apple: sales are missing and forwards are falling amidst global political uncertainty.

MACROCOSM
It's Okay You Didn't Build That
July 20, 2012
A housing recovery even without new construction is our second best hope for better growth.

MACROCOSM
The Fiscal Cliff Bites
July 12, 2012
Wall Street, Main Street, the C-suite, and the Theory of Reflexivity turned inside-out.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 6, 2012
In a hostile monetary/fiscal/regulatory policy environment, this is the jobs growth we deserve.

MACROCOSM
No Senior Discount for Spain
July 2, 2012
Europe learns the hard way that markets in the post-Lehman world are still too fragile.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the SCOTUS Obamacare Decision
June 28, 2012
A blow to growth, reaffirming taxes in the "fiscal cliff" and the regime of "forced exchanges."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June FOMC
June 20, 2012
The Fed did all it could without growing its balance sheet -- that's for the August meeting.

POLITICAL PULSE
Light at the End of the Cliff?
June 11, 2012
If the economy is "absolutely not fine," then Congress must absolutely not let taxes rise.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On FedSpeak
June 7, 2012
The Fed got its engraved invitation to ease, and the RSVPs are coming in "yes."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 1, 2012
That's one, two, three strikes for the jobs market, and the Fed steps up to the plate.

MACROCOSM
Time Is Our Frenemy
May 24, 2012
We need the gift of time to secure the euro. But every day brings the fiscal cliff closer.

MACROCOSM
Is Gold Changing Its Mind?
May 18, 2012
Does gold need an engraved invitation? QE3 is coming soon to an economy near you.

MACROCOSM
Sell in May and Go Away -- Volume 3?
May 10, 2012
Still just a correction, but now it has a dangerous theme -- existential risk to the euro.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 4, 2012
Donald Luskin

A bogus drop in unemployment. Fed doves now have two excuses in a row for easing.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q1 2012 GDP
April 27, 2012
The consumer is alive and well -- everyone has been focusing on the wrong "new normal."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April FOMC
April 25, 2012
The FOMC darkens its language, lightens its forecast, and does nothing -- yet.

MACROCOSM
A Glass of Snapple, Half Full
April 20, 2012
Forward EPS at new highs, with no Apple. Stocks are getting to be a value play again.

MACROCOSM
Bad Friday for Jobs
April 9, 2012
At last a correction in stocks, and in the belief that the labor market has turned the corner.

MACROCOSM
Snapple, not Kool-Aid
April 2, 2012
Apple mattered to Q1 performance -- but it says nothing about valuation, or faster growth.

MACROCOSM
We Love Our New iPhone, But...
March 22, 2012
...without Apple, S&P 500 forward earnings wouldn't be at new highs -- they'd be off 2.4%.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March FOMC
March 13, 2012
Bernanke emerges as a hawkish bulwark on the FOMC: if not for him, we'd have QE3 now.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 9, 2012
What's improving in the jobs data is what didn't need to improve. The hard tasks remain.

POLITICAL PULSE
What Could Possibly Go Worng?
March 8, 2012
Crisis in Europe avoided. Now we look to the coming year-end tax/debt crisis in the US.

FED SHADOW
When Bernanke Talks, People Sell
March 1, 2012
It would take an economic miracle to cause the Fed to tighten. Don't bet on it.

MACROCOSM
Oil Melts Up, Too
February 24, 2012
Just like last year, stocks march higher despite a potential geopolitical oil shock.

MARKET CALLS
Can Stocks Keep Melting Up?
February 10, 2012
If risk aversion retreats as much as it did a year ago, stocks would be 34% higher.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January Jobs Report
February 3, 2012
A big surprise -- merely average jobs growth! But where are the FOMC's "significant risks"?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q4 2011 GDP
January 27, 2012
Four years after the last business cycle peak, real output has grown less than 1%.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January FOMC
January 25, 2012
Today's real news: the Fed implicitly confesses it will not pay attention to inflation anymore.

MACROCOSM
Risk Reappraisal
January 20, 2012
Stocks rise as earnings disappoint, while investors rethink how risky the world really isn't.

MACROCOSM
Cash for Gold!
January 11, 2012
Gold should rally as the market realizes the ECB has embarked on major QE.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 6, 2012
This supposedly big upside surprise in jobs was neither big nor surprising.

MACROCOSM
2011: A Lost Year
December 29, 2011
So much risk -- yet nothing happened. Sadly, the key risks of 2011 are still in place for 2012.

MACROCOSM
Europe's Wall of Liquidity
December 21, 2011
The risk of a Lehman-like banking crisis for Europe is essentially off the table now.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December FOMC
December 13, 2011
A more optimistic Fed isn't likely to ease, but there are new sources of global liquidity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB Monetary Policy Decisions
December 8, 2011
The ECB met expectations, but dashed hopes. But spillovers may mean de facto Fed QE3.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 2, 2011
It's an illusion. If the economy were sharply improving, unemployment would go up.

MACROCOSM
It Only Feels Like Blood in the Streets
December 1, 2011
Stocks are still very cheap, with little risk of recession, and a bet that Europe will survive.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Super-Committee Failure

November 22, 2011
We're shocked... shocked! ...to find failure going on in this congress.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Europe Gets MAD
November 15, 2011
G-Pap opened Pandora's Box -- stocks are amazingly strong facing new risk of euro dissolution. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 4, 2011
The numbers were good. No recession here. But the numbers were small. No growth, either.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November FOMC
November 2, 2011
A darker forecast now explains "operation twist" -- and the Fed stands ready to do more.

MACROCOSM
Not Crazy, Still Cheap
October 31, 2011
Stocks have soared as the equity risk premium has mean-reverted. Where to from here?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 2011 GDP
October 27, 2011
How can 2.5% growth be at consensus, when the consensus expects a recession?

MACROCOSM
It's This Simple
October 20, 2011
Either Europe blows up, or not. When it doesn't, we'll learn how much damage we've taken.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September Jobs Report
October 7, 2011
An upside headline surprise -- still weak, but encouraging when you look deeper inside.

MACROCOSM
Europe Fails, US Stocks Flail
October 4, 2011
The stench of systemic risk from Europe drives stocks to generational value levels.

MACROCOSM
Infectious Fear
September 22, 2011
Recession creeps closer -- but absent a systemic hard-stop, stocks are amazingly cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September FOMC
September 21, 2011
Another minimalist "do something" move, with three dissents -- against "significant" risks.

MACROCOSM
Too Few Good Men
September 9, 2011
Trichet almost admits his mistake, Obama repeats his, and Bernanke maintains course.

MACROCOSM
Testing 1, 2, 3
September 7, 2011
Stocks are bottoming -- it's a bet on Europe holding together, and no US double dip.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August Jobs Report
September 2, 2011
It's another lost quarter -- but far from the feared 2008-style cliff-dive.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke at Jackson Hole
August 26, 2011
Bernanke resists the "do something!" urge. But if inflation falls, he'll act.

MACROCOSM
Gold's Rollercoaster
August 25, 2011
Gold at $1900 was an overshoot -- this correction says no QE3 for now, but ample liquidity.

MACROCOSM
Being Ben Bernanke
August 22, 2011
The mythology of Jackson Hole says "do something!" -- but he probably won't, and needn't.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August FOMC
August 9, 2011
The timing couldn't be worse, but it could be the capper on two weeks of panic.

MACROCOSM
Downgrade: At Least the News is Out
August 8, 2011
The timing couldn't be worse, but it could be the capper on two weeks of panic.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
August 5, 2011
It's a sad thing when a jobs report as weak as this is a big upside surprise.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB Rate and Bond Buy Decisions
August 4, 2011
Trichet fiddles while Rome burns, and world markets take the heat.

MACROCOSM
Debt Ceiling Crisis Over -- Now What?
August 2, 2011
It's the third blow to the economy this year. Can confidence ever be restored?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q2 2011 GDP -- and On the Debt Ceiling Deadlock, Volume 3
July 29, 2011
Debt ceiling action moves to the Senate as we learn this recovery is weaker than we knew.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Debt Ceiling Deadlock, Volume 2
July 28, 2011
Two nearly identical plans on table -- now everyone just needs to agree to say "done."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Debt Ceiling Deadlock
July 25, 2011
The bargaining asymmetries are clear now -- a favorable resolution is within reach.

POLITICAL PULSE
Stand Down
July 21, 2011
The Gang of Six and the McConnell compromise: paths to peace with honor in the debt war.

MACROCOSM
Plan B-Plus for Gold
July 14, 2011
Gold at new all-time highs is about the euro, not the Fed or the debt ceiling.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 8, 2011
Truly bad, but politically useful. Probably a wash-out marking the end of the soft-spot.

FED SHADOW
Footprints of the Black Swans
June 30, 2011
Keep it simple. Two factors caused this slowdown. And we're moving past both of them.

FED SHADOW
FOMC Preview: In Praise of Ben Bernanke
June 22, 2011
QE2 complete -- the Fed's just right. No QE3 unless unemployment rises or inflation falls.

POLTICAL PULSE
Chaos in Athens, Progress in Washington
June 20, 2011
A more pro-growth tone in the spending debate, and the oil peace dividend comes closer.

MACROCOSM
The Post-Osama Slow-Motion Drip-Down
June 10, 2011
The existential implications of bin Laden's death, and what gold is telling us now.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 3, 2011
Shouldn't be a surprise -- and believe it or not, there were a couple of bright spots.

MACROCOSM
Will the Fed do QE3? Should It?
June 2, 2011
No, and no -- even though the economy looks weaker today than a year ago.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Political Brick in the Wall of Worry
May 27, 2011
An upset NY election, and no credible GOP presidential bid: political risk is on the table.

MACROCOSM
Tear Down This Wall of Worry
May 20, 2011
Pervasive pessimism is out of proportion to what's happening in markets and the economy.

MACROCOSM
A New EPS High-water Mark
May 11, 2011
Now stocks just have to grow into their earnings. The slow-motion melt-up will continue.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 6, 2011
Beat the consensus, crush the whisper. Despite event shocks, the recovery has legs.

MARKET CALLS
The bin Laden Commodities Crash
May 6, 2011
A speculative reaction -- and a downpayment on the peace dividend in the War on Terror.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April FOMC
April 27, 2011
No one should be surprised. QE2 continues, as does the slow-motion melt-up in stocks.

MARKET CALLS
Gold Hits Our $1500 Price Target
April 20, 2011
We're still bullish on gold, but it's not the "conviction trade" it was at $771.

POLITICAL PULSE
Growth Wins Another Skirmish
April 11, 2011
Last week's battle over spending strengthens one of the pillars of this bull market.

MACROCOSM
EUicide
April 7, 2011
The ECB has pointlessly made Europe's debt burdens heavier, especially for the PIIGS.

MACROCOSM
Will the World End when QE2 Does?
April 4, 2011
No -- because it won't be the "end" of QE, only its completion.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
Friday, April 1, 2011
A solid, if not spectacular, jobs report. The economy is firmly in second gear.

MACROCOSM
If Portugal Fell...
March 24, 2011
...in the forest and no one was there to hear it, would it still make a noise?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March FOMC
March 15, 2011
The Fed continues to successfully remove itself as a source of uncertainty.

MACROCOSM
Meltdown in Japan
March 15, 2011
Once the bad news is out, Japanese stocks will stabilize -- and the US correction will be short and shallow.

MACROCOSM
The Fed is from Venus, The ECB is from Mars
March 9, 2011
Europe is a basket case, and the US is growing. The ECB is raising rates, the Fed isn't.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 4, 2011
Paradox -- the unemployment rate falls, yet Fed tightening expectations recede.

MACROCOSM
An Oil Shock Tipping Point?
March 3, 2011
You'd think we'd already be there, but stocks and gold are clearly saying we're not.

MACROCOSM
The Libyan Connection
February 22, 2011
The systemic risk from Libya points to Europe and to gold.

FED SHADOW
This Hawk has Flown
February 11, 2011
With Kevin Warsh's departure, the Fed loses is best-respected voice for tightening. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January Jobs Report
February 4, 2011
Look through the bad headline and the statistical distortions -- this was a strong report.

MACROCOSM
Are We Running Out of Armageddons?
February 3, 2011
Stocks are not vulnerable on value or sentiment, and Egypt is likely not a systemic risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January FOMC
January 26, 2011
A slight growth upgrade, a hat-tip to inflation, and no dissents -- overall dovish.

MACROCOSM
Gold Acts Leaden
January 25, 2011
Why has gold dropped $100 when everyone's suddenly worried about inflation?

MACROCOSM
Banks Slow the Slow-Motion Melt-Up
January 21, 2011
Misses at three big banks haven't changed the overall earnings outlook.

FED SHADOW
Good Problems to Have
January 14, 2011
The Fed won't go broke (at least not on paper), and rising rates won't squelch growth.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 7, 2011
ADP's crystal ball turned out to be cloudy. Jobs growth will have to wait for 2011.

MACROCOSM
A Question of Sentiment
January 6, 2011
Donald Luskin

After the 4th-best December in 110 years, stocks haven't gotten ahead of themselves.

MACROCOSM
How We Didn't Blow It in 2010
December 28, 2010
We didn't abort the recovery from the Great Recession -- now, some modest expansion.

MARKET CALLS
Gold is a Hold
December 20, 2010
Not a buy, not a sell. The best bull case has weakened, but other upside factors are in play.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December FOMC
December 14, 2010
The FOMC keeps a low profile, and QE2 becomes business as usual.

MACROCOSM
Tax Cut Endgame
December 13, 2010
The compromise tax bill will pass. Little warts and all, this is a pro-growth landmark.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
To Get Rich is Glorious Again
December 7, 2010
The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts symbolizes that capital is still welcome in America. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 3, 2010
Labor market to the critics: do you still think QE2 wasn't necessary?

MACROCOSM
The Enemy of the Good
December 2, 2010
It doesn't require a perfect economy to justify substantial stock market gains in 2011.

MACROCOSM
Eyeing an Exit from "No Exit"
November 18, 2010
Political stabilization destabilizes the safety net, while higher yields signal QE2 is working.

MARKET CALLS
Stock Outlook: Differences Make a Difference
November 10, 2010
Upgrading our view on stocks and the economy, with no crazily optimistic assumptions.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November FOMC
November 3, 2010
If it's sell on the news for QE2, buy the dip: the Fed won't quit till it works.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Pendulum Swings Back
November, 2010
The battle to extend Bush-era tax rates will be the first test for a new political alignment.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 GDP
October 29, 2010
The "Zarnowitz Law" has been repealed. After a record drop, the economy refuses to grow.

FED SHADOW
Sell on the Leak?
October 27, 2010
The new conventional wisdom is QE will be small -- but committees do unexpected things.

MACROCOSM
Sell On Good News
October 20, 2010
Correction is inevitable, but our instinct is that there will be a better moment to sell.

MACROCOSM
Risk-On Hearts QE2
October 14, 2010
Gold, sure. But do rising stocks really mean more Fed asset purchases will boost growth?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September Jobs Report
October 8, 2010
Today's go-nowhere numbers put pressure on congressional incumbents and the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Pushing On a Golden String
October 1, 2010
Buy the dip in gold. Global reflation remains the dominant strategic factor.

MACROCOSM
Date with Destiny
October 1, 2010
Risking the errors of 1937 and 1930, this is where we either learn from history or repeat it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September FOMC
September 21, 2010
It couldn't be clearer. For the Fed, reflation is not just a mission but a mandate.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Double-Dip Doomsday Machine
September 21, 2010
It's simple arithmetic -- failure to extend today's tax rates will cause a new recession.

FED SHADOW
Dialing Down the Drama at the Fed
September 16, 2010
Gold's new highs means the Fed's reflation campaign is already starting to work.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Chicken
September 9, 2010
Forget stimulus. Focus on the high stakes poker over extending the Bush era tax rates.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August Jobs Report
September 3, 2010
This morning's jobs report should be the cure for double-dipsomania.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke at Jackson Hole
August 27, 2010
A Hoenig snub and a dovish speech, restoring discipline and paving the way to more ease.

FED SHADOW
When PhD's Attack
August 25, 2010
Markets will flail until the academics who run the Fed stop theorizing and get real.

MACROCOSM
"No Exit" Cuts Both Ways
August 12, 2010
Wednesday's shock in global markets reminds us: always a crisis, always more reflation.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August FOMC
August 10, 2010
It was not quite the least the Fed could do, but they did it. There's more to come.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
August 6, 2010
Another expansionless month for jobs in an ongoing "expansionless recovery."

FED SHADOW
What Should the Fed Do?
August 5, 2010
Donald Luskin

There's one policy option for next week's FOMC that would be both powerful and gradualist.

TRENDMACRO LIVE
On Q2 GDP
July 30, 2010
The recession was worse than we knew, making this recovery even more "expansionless."

POLITICAL PULSE
Good Week for Growth
July 26, 2010
Donald Luskin

New hopes for extending the Bush tax cuts, no carbon tax, and an easy Fed.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the EU Bank Stress Tests
July 23, 2010
By ruling out the effect of sovereign default on banks, the EU is ruling it out as a cause.

FED SHADOW
No QE2 Yet -- Just QE 1.1
July 22, 2010
Bernanke disappointed the "double dip" crowd, but it was still a step toward more easing.

MACROCOSM
An Earnings Season in the "Expansionless Recovery"
July 14, 2010
Intel's sales are back above trend -- but that leaves the economy still far below.

MACROCOSM
Europe Gropes toward Stress-Tests
July 12, 2010
It's a test to see if disunited Europe can establish new rules and play by them. 

MACROCOSM
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Depression
July 6, 2010
No depression, and no "double dip." Still it's hard to recover from a great bear market.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 2, 2010
Some small upside surprises -- it's still an "expansionless recovery," not a "double dip."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Today's Drop in Gold
July 1, 2010
Good news for the euro is bad news for gold, at least in the near-term.

MACROCOSM
Betting Against a "Double Dip"
June 30, 2010
It feels like the end of the world. But liquidity is plentiful and stocks are very cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June FOMC
June 23, 2010
Already dovish, now going on deflation-alert. A tiny first step toward more easing this year.

FED SHADOW
How to Ease, Not When to Tighten
June 23, 2010
Today the FOMC will take the first tiny steps down the path to further easing.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On RMB Revaluation
June 20, 2010
Buy the dip if there's a "strong yuan" panic. This is good for China and the world.

MARKET CALLS
Fixed Income Strategy: Take The Low Road
June 16, 2010
The Fed is stuck where it is this year and next: so bet on low yields and low quality.

MARKET CALLS
More Upside for Gold
June 10, 2010
The future for gold, and what an all-time high gold price is saying about the future.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 4, 2010
It's plain to see in the data. The recovery isn't jobless, it's expansion-less.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Focus Report: The Train Wreck in Hours Worked
June 2, 2010
There can be no classic "V-shaped recovery" when this time is so horribly different for labor.

MACROCOSM
The Panic Abates -- But Now What?
May 27, 2010
Euro-panic isn't the end of the world. But the world we face isn't the one we expected.

MACROCOSM
So Much For The "V"
May 21, 2010
An "expansionless recovery" in a world of "no exit" from government stimulus.

MACROCOSM
Gold at New Global Highs
May 13, 2010
Europe is patient-zero, but the breakout in gold is a flight from currencies worldwide.

MACROCOSM
Europe Gets le TARP
May 10, 2010
A painful lurch toward European federalism, but it's not clear it will restore confidence.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 7, 2010
The duality continues: growing employment and growing unemployment at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Gold is the Strongest Currency
May 6, 2010
Thanks to Greece it's at all-time highs in euros -- but why is it surging in dollar terms, too?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q1 2010 GDP
April 30, 2010
A weak quarter: no "new normal," but no "V-shaped recovery" either.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April FOMC
April 28, 2010
The Fed had nothing to say, so it said nothing. So it's no exit as far as the eye can see.

FED SHADOW
The Scariest Chart in Economics
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The FOMC meets, facing a secular breakdown in the labor market.

MACROCOSM
If This Earnings Season Has Been So Great…
April 26, 2010
…then why haven't consensus earnings -- or stocks -- tracked on the upside?

MACROCOSM
Goldman Sucks
April 19, 2010
The new systemic risk: liability for past sins and heightened clamor for regulation.

MACROCOSM
The Consumer: QED
April 16, 2010
The recession is so over, the consumer is still king, and the "new normal" is off the table.

MACROCOSM
Greece Gets TARPed
April 12, 2010
The euro is saved, for now. But a lawless rescue is a permanent blow to credibility.

MACROCOSM
Updates on China, Oil, Jobs, the Consumer, and the Fed
April 9, 2010
The yuan moves oil, jobs move consumption, and unemployment keeps the Fed on hold.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
April 2, 2010
A weak report: employment and unemployment are growing at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Obamacare: Do Markets Care?
March 18, 2010
So many anti-growth long-fuse tax bombs, and so little reaction.

POLITICAL PULSE
No Protectionism Threat: Yuan To Bet?
March 18, 2010
The Schumer-Graham tariff bill is back, and China will probably blink again.

FED SHADOW
March FOMC Preview
March 15, 2010
The "extended period" language will stay -- there's just no reason to drop it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen for Fed Vice Chair
March 12, 2010
Another smart Obama appointment emphasizing policy continuity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 5, 2010
It makes recession-end "official," but leaves a slow road back to full employment ahead.

MACROCOSM
The Case for Ambivalence, Volume Three
March 4, 2010
Data continues to confirm that we're only in a recovery, not a real expansion.

FED SHADOW
Some Tightening!
February 24, 2010
When the SFP is complete at $200 billion, excess reserves will top today's $1.137 trillion.

MACROCOSM
Real Deflation
February 23, 2010
January's core deflation report is accurate -- and it sets up for more inflation down the road.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Fed's Discount Rate Hike
February 18, 2010
Why couldn't renormalizing the discount rate wait until the next FOMC meeting.

MACROCOSM
Greek Farce
February 16, 2010
The EU's credit crisis has abated, at a deep cost to currency credibility worldwide.

FED SHADOW
Ben Can, But Ben Probably Won't
February 10, 2010
The Fed has the tools to "exit," but using them correctly remains a challenge.

MACROCOSM
PIIGS, Panic and Jobs
February 5, 2010
The stench of deflation rises from Europe, and the US jobs market shoots a little green.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q4 2009 GDP
January 29, 2010
Waiting for that "new normal" -- a "new era" of frugality -- is getting mighty old.

FED SHADOW
Advice and Dissent
January 28, 2010
Hoenig's protest notwithstanding, jobs and politics have the Fed on hold all year.

MACROCOSM
Redoubling Down
February 25, 2010
Bernanke promises redoubled ease. The White House promises redoubled "change."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Obama's Bank Regulation Proposal
January 21, 2010
Banks become regulated public utilities, forcing the Fed to be looser than ever.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Scott Heard 'Round the World?
January 19, 2010
A GOP Massachusetts win today would be another step down the bullish road toward political equilibrium.

MARKET CALLS
Under-Seasoned
January 15, 2010
Expectations are so elevated, this earnings season almost has to be a disappointment.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 8, 2010
No V-shaped recovery, but some signs that dynamism is returning to the jobs market.

FED SHADOW
New Year, Same Old Fed
January 4, 2010
The new wave of economic optimism isn’t moving the Fed toward serious tightening.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
2009's Economic Chart of the Year
December 28, 2009
Obama loses his rock-star status, driving an historic comeback for stocks.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
2010's Great Debate: Inflation or Deflation?
December 22, 2009
Both! Deflationary forces continue to bear down, so the Fed will inflate all the more.

FED SHADOW
Sucker Trade: Inflation for Jobs
December 17, 2009
Citing the lessons of the 1970s, the Fed seems ready to repeat its mistakes of the 1970s.

MACROCOSM
The Case for Ambivalence, Volume Two
December 14, 2009
We stick with our call for a sluggish recovery -- there's no evidence for anything else.

MACROCOSM
No Game-Changer
December 8, 2009
Markets and the Fed have quite correctly shrugged off last week's upside jobs surprise.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 4, 2009
Under the upside surprise in headline jobs, some tiny improvement in key labor trends.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Dubai Debt Crisis
November 27, 2009
Donald Luskin

At last, an event catalyst for a long-overdue correction in stocks.

FED SHADOW
Easing -- As in Appeasing
November 23, 2009
Gold soars as the Fed resists politicization by giving politicians the easy money they want.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
TrendMacro's Best Long Term Charts
November 12, 2009
Deep historical context on today's unique market and economic conditions.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 6, 2009
The recovery is more jobless than ever, and the Fed is pushed further to indefinite ease.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On GOP Wins in New Jersey and Virginia
November 4, 2009
This move back toward political balance underscores the durability of the March bottom.

MACROCOSM
Triple Play? No Way!
November 3, 2009
Stocks see an impossible earnings triple -- but gold sees inevitable inflation.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 GDP
October 29, 2009
Still no "new era" of consumer retrenchment -- but no investment renaissance, either.

FED SHADOW
Promise Keepers
October 27, 2009
Next week the FOMC will repeat its assurance to keep rates low for "an extended period."

MACROCOSM
Geithner and the Dollar: That's Not My Job
October 15, 2009
For Treasury, it's not a problem at all -- and even if it is, it's the Fed's.

MACROCOSM
Gold at All-Time Highs
October 7, 2009
Believe it: the crisis of deflation has been turned into the problem of inflation.

FED SHADOW
Warsh's Warning
September 28, 2009
Okay, so the Fed won't be easy forever. Just almost forever.

MACROCOSM
Gold Above $1000: What Took So Long?
September 16, 2009
The Fed had to fix its bond boo-boo first, but now it's free to inflate -- and it will.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
September 4, 2009
Donald Luskin

Job losses continue to slow, but unemployment is more of a "roach motel" than ever.

MARKET CALLS
Monster Rally
August 31, 2009
Stocks will have to obey Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."

FED SHADOW
Fed Still On The T-Bond Sidelines
August 24, 2009
Kohn's Jackson Hole remarks don't mean more long-term bond buys are coming.

MARKET CALLS
Great… Now What?
August 21, 2009
A round-up of our strategic views now that the global economy has hit bottom.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August FOMC
August 12, 2009
Not buying more Treasury bonds is hardly news, and hardly an exit strategy.

MACROCOSM
A Greener Kind of Shoot
August 7, 2009
A sign that the economy isn't just falling more slowly, but actually starting to grow. 

MACROCOSM
Still Waiting for that "New Era"
July 31, 2009
Revised GDP data deepens doubt about seemingly inevitable consumer retrenchment.

POLITICAL PULSE
America's Next Top Fed Model
July 27, 2009
Markets rightly expect Bernanke to stay, and Summers would be a destabilizing surprise.

FED SHADOW
The Fed's Bond Boo-Boo
July 24, 2009
The FOMC knows its $300 billion bond buy was a mistake -- it won't be buying more.

MACROCOSM
Surprise, Surprise
July 23, 2009
Earnings surprises, and a surprise crack-up of Obamacare, carry stocks to new highs.

POLITICAL PULSE
Health Care Deform
July 16, 2009
A proposed surtax may be the kind of self-correcting policy over-reach we saw in March.

MACROCOSM
A Deflationary Correction
July 9, 2009
The Fed may be off deflation watch, but markets evidently are not.

MACROCOSM
The Square Root of Recovery
July 2, 2009
Today's jobs report raises issues about the shape of recovery and the risk of deflation.

MACROCOSM
Can Inflation Plays Do Without Deflation?
June 25, 2009
Yesterday's FOMC takes some of the edge off, but the inflation theme is alive and well.

FED SHADOW
Too Soon to Stray
June 23, 2009
Markets should be relieved tomorrow when the Fed stays the course.

MACROCOSM
Regulation Road
June 18, 2009
For now Obama's regulatory proposals are just proposals -- but they're another step away from economic dynamism.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Case for Ambivalence
June 12, 2009
Donald Luskin

Where do we go from here, now that we're not going to zero?

FED SHADOW
They Laughed When I Sat Down to Monetize
June 4, 2009
The Fed is less worried about deflation -- but it's not worried enough about inflation.

MACROCOSM
Green Overshoots
May 29, 2009
How much more recovery can the economy take?

MACROCOSM
No, Mr. Bond, I Expect You to Die
Friday, May 22, 2009
China's not dumping. It's Treasuries gearing up for "Black Wednesday" with the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Wolf in the Fold
May 18, 2009
Donald Luskin

Meet the "change" trading range -- a go-nowhere market just like the 1960s-1970s.

MACROCOSM
The Stress Tests' Hidden Mickey
May 4, 2009
Donald Luskin

An unappreciated feature rules out another "bag run" on banks.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
It's an Old New Era
May 1, 2009
There's no Q1 retrenchment of consumption -- there's a shock to investment.

MACROCOSM
Stress Test Stress
April 21, 2009
The risk of a near-term "bag run," and a long-term drag on the whole banking sector.

MACROCOSM
All's Not Wells
April 13, 2009
Wells Fargo's pre-announcement is encouraging, but don't generalize it to all banks.

FED SHADOW
Charm Offensive
April 6, 2009
Donald Luskin

The Fed sees the inflation risk in its huge balance sheet -- but there's nothing it can do.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On IMF Gold Sales
April 2, 2009
The IMF doesn't determine the gold price. The Fed's response function does.

MACROCOSM
Geithner Gets a Do-Over
March 24, 2009
Markets applaud PPPIP, but the Fed signals that enough is enough.

FED SHADOW
Ben Boldly Goes
March 19, 2009
It's official: the Fed is fighting deflation by monetizing debt.

MACROCOSM
Number of the Beast
March 18, 2009
Nice rally. But how high is the upside when economic policy is at the edge of chaos?

MACROCOSM
Quantum of No Solace
March 10, 2009
The equity risk premium has gone up because the amount of risk has gone up.

MACROCOSM
Citi's Common Misconception
March 2, 2009
The troubled bank's exchange offer is pointless, costly and destabilizing.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Test the Lows, Gold Tests the Highs
February 23, 2009
Donald Luskin

Economic policy is in utter disarray -- all that's left is inflating our way out of this crisis.

MACROCOSM
Obama: "…today does mark the beginning of the end."
February 20, 2009
The more the government rescues the economy, the lower stocks go.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the New Bank Bonus Restrictions
February 15, 2009
Unintended consequences buried in the "stimulus" bill are a game-changer to the downside.

MACROCOSM
Two Strikes for Tim
February 11, 2009
Markets expected Geithner to be the man with the plan. Instead, it was amateur hour.

MACROCOSM
What is Gold Trying to Tell Us?
February 3, 2009
Mixed messages about deflation, inflation and the limits of fiscal stimulus.

MACROCOSM
Unknown Unknowns
January 30, 2009
Stocks are trying to bottom, but it all depends on the new administration's bank policies.

MACROCOSM
Rescue Remix
January 20, 2009
We're testing the lows as, once again, government rethinks its approach to bank rescues.

MACROCOSM
Passengers Survive, But Plane Sinks
January 16, 2009
Donald Luskin

Saving the banking system won't make big banks into interesting businesses.

MACROCOSM
Testing the Safety Net
January 14, 2009
Another bank crisis is brewing, there's no Treasury secretary, and Congress and Obama spar over TARP.

MACROCOSM
New Year, Same Old Recession
January 9, 2009
Let's review the baseline: how we got here, where we are, where we are going.

MACROCOSM
Is This a "New Era" Recession?
December 29, 2008
We don't see the case for a secular collapse in consumption.

FED SHADOW
"Some Time" A Great Notion
December 17, 2008
A zero rate and a humongous Fed balance sheet -- good for now, but not forever.

MACROCOSM
Why Isn't Gold at $1500?
December 10, 2008
The Fed's managing an unstable balance of titanic inflationary forces against the risk of deflation.

MACROCOSM
Brace for Another TARP Debate
December 3, 2008
The rescues are working, and Obama moves to the center -- but the Big Three are going to re-open the wounds to market confidence.

MACROCOSM
Another Rescue, A New Rescue Ranger
November 24, 2008
Citi gets TARPed again, and Treasury gets policy continuity for the TARPs still to come.

MACROCOSM
At Least They're Cheap
November 20, 2008
Even financials are now deeply undervalued, for the first time in this bear market.

MACROCOSM
Deflation Takes Center Stage
November 19, 2008
Core CPI prints negative, and the Fed openly uses the "D" word.

POLITICAL PULSE
It Ain't My Job
November 10, 2008
Good news for markets -- Obama's meeting of economic icons produced exactly nothing.

POLITICAL PULSE
Now What?
November 6, 2008
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury is still being fought.

MACROCOSM
Bearack Obama
October 31, 2008
He could usher in a capital-unfriendly "Left decade," but in the near-term Obama's election could be a plus for stocks.

MACROCOSM
How Bad An Earnings Hit?
October 23, 2008
Forward earnings are falling -- but stocks have already fallen far more.

MACROCOSM
At Last: A Bail-out That's a Bail-out
October 14, 2008
After six months of destroying financial sector equity, Treasury gets it almost right.

MACROCOSM
The Right to Arm Bears
October 9, 2008
Donald Luskin

A recipe for speculative attack: even greater Treasury powers, and no short-selling ban.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Global Rate Cuts
October 8, 2008
Irrelevant and inflationary. Markets need real money now, not "soon."

MACROCOSM
Henry Paulson: The Donald Rumsfeld of Bail-Outs
October 6, 2008
After two weeks of congressional shock and awe, Treasury has no plan.

MACROCOSM
Quick Thoughts on the New Black Monday
September 30, 2008
The historic stock drop was more politically manufactured hysteria than reality.

MACROCOSM
Peeking Under the TARP
September 29, 2008
Now a bill, but still no details. First take: it could have been worse, and it might work.

MACROCOSM
Bail-Out Brinksmanship
September 26, 2008
Will credit markets get their bail-out? Will they even want the bail-out they might get?

MACROCOSM
It's Not the RTC -- It's a $700 Billion LBO
September 22, 2008
Donald Luskin

Treasury's bail-out is broader than the market now sees, and so will be the regulations.

MACROCOSM
If You're Short, Abort
September 19, 2008
With the SEC's ban on short-selling, two wrongs could make a right.

MACROCOSM
AIG: Rescue or Bag Run?
September 17, 2008
Government rescues are making the most important firms "too big to not fail."

MACROCOSM
Tough Love for Lehman
September 14, 2008
The Fed takes a big chance in order to break the cycle of "immoral hazard."

MACROCOSM
Your Speculative Attacks Dollars At Work
September 11, 2008
"Nationalization risk" replaces credit risk in the financial sector.

MACROCOSM
Fannie/Freddie Fallout
September 8, 2008
The takeover heals near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.

MACROCOSM
GSE Rescue: First Impressions
September 7, 2008
The Treasury's move will help stabilize housing and credit markets, and take pressure off the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Perception, Election, Reality and Risk
September 5, 2008

Bleak sentiment is way overblown -- but some real risks are getting closer and closer.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar: We're Not Buying It
August 26, 2008
The Fed's easy posture simply doesn't support a sustained dollar rally.

MACROCOSM
Gold: Is Enough Enough?
August 13, 2008
The drop in the "inflation plays" is overdone in light of worsening inflation risks.

MACROCOSM
No Get Out of Inflation Free Card
August 6, 2008
Inflation-sensitive markets have been distracted by oil -- soon they'll turn to the Fed.

MACROCOSM
All Cross, No Current
August 1, 2008
Stocks are cheap near-term amidst a jumble of conflicting data, news and politics.

MACROCOSM
Indecision and Inflation
July 22, 2008
As stocks have recovered, so has a glimmer of hope that the Fed might get it right.

MACROCOSM
Stocks are Cheap, But the Fed's Asleep
July 15, 2008
Hard to believe, but a rally is imminent. But long-term, the Fed has tragically missed the inflation-fighting window.

MACROCOSM
Will the GSE Rescue Work?
July 14, 2008
The rescue is feasible, and should go a long way toward restoring confidence.

MACROCOSM
From Correction to Test to Bear Market
July 10, 2008
We're not scared by bears on the cover of Barron's. We're scared that Bernanke will blow it.

MACROCOSM
Fail-Safe
July 2, 2008
Markets are all at critical test-points, waiting to see if the Fed will act to support the dollar and stabilize the oil price.

MACROCOSM
Markets Speak, Bernanke Needs to Act
June 27, 2008
We worry about the banks a little. The Fed should worry about an oil price spiral a lot.

MACROCOSM
From Pessimism to Populism
June 20, 2008
Today's fears are overwrought, but they're laying the groundwork for serious future risk.

MACROCOSM
Subprime Lending Was Their Best Idea
June 4, 2008
Where are financial sector earnings going to come from? And where's the safety net when the PDCF expires?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Commodity Prices: Blame the Indexers?
May 28, 2008
It's an intriguing idea -- but to the extent it's true, it's only a temporary effect.

MACROCOSM
The Upside of Obamanation
May 22, 2008
Amidst a nasty correction in stocks, a (sort of) bullish take on an Obama presidency.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's New New Facility
May 16, 2008
Just when the Fed got things figured out, it's poking the hornet's nest with a new policy tool.

MACROCOSM
The Next Thing to Worry About
May 8, 2008
As the credit crisis eases, it's time to turn to the growth risks of the November election.

FED SHADOW
No Pause Promise, But No Panic
May 1, 2008
The FOMC was disturbingly vague -- but the finger is off the rate-cut trigger.

MACROCOSM
There Will Not Be Blood
April 24, 2008
The surge in oil has been somewhat overdone, but at base it's a sign of improving growth prospects.

MACROCOSM
The Bear Stearns Bottom: One Month Later
April 17, 2008
The economy stabilizes short of recession, and "inflation plays" emerge as "growth plays."

MACROCOSM
2 + 2 = 3 and 3 - 2 = 2
April 7, 2008
The Fed's new virtuous cycle changes the relationship of growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Inflection
March 25, 2008
The Fed pulls back from the inflationary brink, and we call the top on "inflation plays."

MACROCOSM
Three Quarter Profile In Courage
March 19, 2008
The Fed signals an end to endless rate cuts, and markets signal the Fed may have finally mastered the credit crisis.

MACROCOSM
Bernankruptcy
March 17, 2008
It's a wonderful panic, with Ben Bernanke playing Donna Reed. How will the movie end?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Term Securities Lending Facility
March 11, 2008

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On TAF and Jobs
March 7, 2008

MACROCOSM
Gold $1000, Here We Come
February 28, 2008
It's just a matter of time, with the Fed utterly oblivious to inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Other Winners in the Credit Crisis
February 19, 2008
If you didn't short risky credits, being long inflation has been the place to be.

MACROCOSM
Waiting Game
February 15, 2008
Passive and gradualist, the Fed is prolonging the credit crisis and the soft-spot.

POLITICAL PULSE
Obamanation
February 5, 2008
The ascendance of Barack Obama brings anti-growth political risk into focus.

MACROCOSM
Jump! How High? Cut! How Low?
January 31, 2008
The Fed's appeasement of market panic has brought us to where further rate cuts may do more harm than good.

FED SHADOW
Fed Cred Dead?
January 22, 2008
Even as it saves the world, the Fed can't quite get it right.

MACROCOSM
Another Leg Lower
January 21, 2008
The monoline insurer crisis is uniquely dangerous, and the Fed is losing credibility at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Throwing the Baby Out with the Kitchen Sink
January 16, 2008
Even great news is taken as proof that we're heading into recession, or already there.

MACROCOSM
The End of the World, Part 3
January 7, 2008
Another market "tantrum" tests the August/November lows for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Hell of a Year?
December 27, 2007
Beyond the housing collapse and the credit implosion, things look remarkably good at year-end.

POLITICAL PULSE
Is the Inevitable Inevitable?
December 19, 2007
A GOP victory on taxes and spending, and the emergence of Ron Paul, lowers the chances of a growth catastrophe in the 2008 election.

MACROCOSM
Rescue Rangers
December 10, 2007
Daily rescue investments in the financial sector signal that the crisis is near an end, and that the Fed has done enough.

FED SHADOW
"Act As Expected"
November 28, 2007
The Fed repeats it will only "act as needed," but it's still not likely to disappoint expectations.

MACROCOSM
Gold's New Line in the Sand
November 20, 2007
Inflation-sensitive markets won't let themselves be talked down for long.

MACROCOSM
The Wages of Fear
November 19, 2007
Rising risk aversion is alarming -- but it's also a gift.

MARKET CALLS
Time to Earn the Panic Premium
November 13, 2007
Stocks are the king of carry trades once again.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar Will Have to Wait
November 8, 2007
The cost of too much ease is becoming clearer to Bernanke, but it won't turn off his liquidity fire-hose.

FED SHADOW
From Line in the Sand, to Sand in the Face
October 30, 2007
Bullied by gold, oil, the dollar and the futures markets, what can the Fed do to be strong?

MACROCOSM
Financials Stink Up the Joint
October 25, 2007
Earnings are coming in strong, except for financials -- and the Fed will take care of that.

MACROCOSM
Easier and Easier
October 12, 2007
How come inflation plays are soaring while Fed rate cut expectations are diminishing?

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Where's the There There? Part II
October 5, 2007
With stocks back to all-time highs, was the summer crisis really about nothing at all?

MACROCOSM
Honey, I Shrunk The Dollar
September 28, 2007
The Fed has kicked inflation pressures into high gear, pretty much for no good reason.

FED SHADOW
A Dearth of a Thousand Cuts
September 18, 2007
Bernanke will cave to market pressure and cut the funds rate once, but a neutral bias will disappoint the doves about future cuts.

MACROCOSM
Cut or No Cut
September 5, 2007
We still think it's an open question, but either way stocks and inflation plays will do well.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Don't Need a Rate Cut
August 31, 2007
There are other tools for the job. In fact, when easing expectations rise, stocks go down.

MACROCOSM
Where's the There There?
August 23, 2007
No recession. No deflation. Was this even a correction?

MACROCOSM
2007 and the Ghosts of 1998
August 16, 2007
The current crisis isn't a repeat of Long Term Capital Management, but it rhymes.

MARKET CALLS
Burned Out
August 7, 2007
Panic was ignited by Bill Gross and it burned out with Jim Cramer.

MACROCOSM
Thoughts After a Very Rough Week
July 30, 2007
Two weeks after all-time highs, panic-stricken stocks are almost as cheap as they were at the very bottom.

MACROCOSM
Bill Gross Shoots, But Can't Hit
July 25, 2007
If this is a real "liquidity crisis," then the Dow is at 5000.

MACROCOSM
The King Is Dead, Long Live the King
July 9, 2007
Stocks are no longer insanely cheap relative to bonds. They're just wildly cheap.

MACROCOSM
The Subprime and the Banal
June 25, 2007
The global liquidity surplus will absorb the latest speculative crisis. The problem is that everybody knows it.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Unfazed
June 14, 2007
Neither a new anti-China bill nor the latest leg in the four-year bear market in bonds will crack the stock market.

MARKET CALLS
Doves Eat Crow
June 6, 2007
They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Plays Revisited
May 31, 2007
The worst case inflation risk is off the table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.

POLITICAL PULSE
Best Behavior
May 22, 2007
It's not the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the growth boat.

POLITICAL PULSE
Upside Surprise on Trade
May 14, 2007
A Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.

POLITICAL PULSE
Washington on Hold
May 10, 2007
The two forces most likely to derail the economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put themselves on the sidelines.

MACROCOSM
Two Economies, One Funds Rate
May 1, 2007
The Fed is letting 5% of the economy make 100% of its policy decisions.

MACROCOSM
Earnings to Economy: "No Recession"
April 20, 2007
One company at a time, the forward consensus isn't worried about the latest crisis du jour.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Outlook
April 13, 2007
The correction was a correction -- it has about run its course, with inflation plays in the lead.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Trade in the Balance
April 5, 2007
Why trade is good, why protectionism is bad, and why countervailing duties on Chinese paper are only a small step in the wrong direction.

MACROCOSM
Flex Time
March 30, 2007
Today's data should begin to bend the "flexible" Fed toward the breaking point.

MACROCOSM
Huh?
March 22, 2007
The Fed may be on pause longer now, but nothing in yesterday's FOMC statement justifies the fantasy that rate cuts are coming.

MACROCOSM
All Tip, No Iceberg
March 16, 2007
Superabundant liquidity is buffering the economy from problems in subprime.

MACROCOSM
Something's Survived
March 8, 2007
Donald Luskin

The inflation plays are the winners in the market's recent turbulence.

MARKET CALLS
Are We Scared Yet?
February 28, 2007
Donald Luskin

We got the correction we expected -- but is that really all it is?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Subprime Time
February 26, 2007
Donald Luskin

Excess liquidity will absorb subprime's problems -- a Fed bailout would only add to inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Enough Good News for a Correction
February 16, 2007
With Bernanke on indefinite hold and tax risk reduced, what's left to rally stocks?

MACROCOSM
Chairman Bernanke's Year of Living Dangerously
February 8, 2007
In his second year, Bernanke will have to pay the price for the risks he took in his first.

MACROCOSM
Gold Versus Goldilocks
February 2, 2007
The problem with this stock market rally is that inflation plays are leading it.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Wars
January 22, 2007
The era of tax cuts is over, and a new era of tax risk has begun.

MARKET CALLS
Update to our Equity Sector Forecasts
January 11, 2007
Tech and Telecom driven by Democrats -- Energy and Materials driven by seemingly everything.

MACROCOSM
A Break in Trend
January 8, 2007
Stocks have drooped just as investors had become complacent, and growth visibly reaccelerates.

MARKET CALLS
It Was a Very Good Year
December 29, 2006
We were right that stocks would dominate in 2006 -- the trick in 2007 will be to call the top.

MACROCOSM
Paradox Friday
December 18, 2006
Mixed signals prolong "Indian summer," but they're no cause for complacency.

POLITICAL PULSE
Net Neutrality Not Neutered
December 14, 2006
Two big defeats for "net neutrality" regulation don't make a deregulatory trend.

MACROCOSM
Walk the Hawk
November 30, 2006
The "inflation plays" smell blood in Ben Bernanke's water.

MACROCOSM
Indian Summer
November 21, 2006
How long can stocks make hay until the Fed lowers the boom?

POLITICAL PULSE
Stock Market Exit Poll
November 15, 2006
Equity sectors are already responding to the Democratic congressional sweep.

POLITICAL PULSE
Don't Panic
November 8, 2006
The Democrats did better than expected, but it's not a lurch toward anti-growth policy.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Gut Check for Growth
November 2, 2006
Our growth forecast is getting increasingly out of consensus -- and that's just where we like it.

MACROCOSM
The Price of the Pause
October 20, 2006
With the Fed on pause, the equilibrium funds rate is now arguably above 6%.

POLITICAL PULSE
Speaker Pelosi
October 12, 2006
Long-term, the GOP losing congressional control may be best for growth.

MACROCOSM
Highs for Stocks, Lows for Sentiment
October 9, 2006
In our "first up, then down" strategy model, how long can "first up" last?

FED SHADOW
The Frustrated Fed
September 28, 2006
Where on Lenin's Tomb do Fed officials have to stand to signal their hawkish bias?

MACROCOSM
Immaculate Consumption
September 20, 2006
Consumers will stay strong -- bad news for the Fed, good news for the GOP.

MACROCOSM
Weak Gold, Strong Inflation
September 13, 2006
Gold would have to drop another $200 to truly relieve inflation pressures.

MACROCOSM
Foreshocks
September 7, 2006
Modest positives rule the near term, but inevitable negatives are just over the horizon.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Forecast
August 23, 2006
Why the bullish short term can only be so good, and why the bearish long term might only be so bad.

MACROCOSM
If Only It Were This Easy
August 18, 2006
We're delighted to see stocks up and gold down -- but don't break out the champagne just yet.

MARKET CALLS
Bernanke's Quagmire
August 7, 2006
The Fed will cause a real recession by trying to prevent an illusory one.

MACROCOSM
Judgment Day
August 3, 2006
Tuesday's FOMC meeting will be pivotal for markets and the economy.

MACROCOSM
Depending on Undependable Data
July 28, 2006
Today's GDP report may take away the Fed's "wrong reason" to do the "right thing."

MACROCOSM
Bernanke on the Hill
July 20, 2006

The Fed chief may hope the data will allow the rate hikes to stop, but there's one more coming.

MACROCOSM
Inflection Point Deflected
July 11, 2006
Equities need the Fed to find the courage and credibility to deal with inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Out-of-Consensus Consensus
June 26, 2006
Slowdown fears grip Wall Street -- yet analysts' forward earnings are accelerating.

MACROCOSM
The May 10 Inflection Point
June 12, 2006
It was the high water mark of inflation expectations and carry trades -- but it's a mistake to think it's going to roll the economy over.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tuesday's Elections
Wednesday, June 7, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 2
June 2, 2006
The worst thing the Fed could do now is to repeat Greenspan's 1987 mistake.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Treasury Secretary Paulson
May 30, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 1
May 25, 2006
Some macroeconomic variables are parallel to 1987, but markets are totally perpendicular.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bad News About Avian Flu
May 24, 2006

MACROCOSM
Rain on the Tax Cut Parade
May 15, 2006
Now stocks have to worry about a Democratic House, and a Fed that is "putting uphill.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Good News About Avian Flu
May 11, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Extending the Tax Cuts: The Home Stretch
May 9, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tax Bill Progress
May 3, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Another Tax Bill Breakdown
April 27, 2006

MACROCOSM
High Noon
April 25, 2006
Stocks face the risk that if the 2003 tax cuts aren't extended now, they never will be.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Rashomon
April 11, 2006
Even a call from the President couldn't get the 2003 tax cuts extended last week, but it's not over yet.

POLITICAL PULSE
Two to Tangle the Tax Cuts
April 10, 2006
How Chuck Grassley and Bill Thomas let a personal feud put growth at risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Tax and Budget Breakdowns
April 7, 2006

POLITICAL PULSE

Tax Cut Extension: The Deal Takes Shape
April 6, 2006
While partisans are distracted by immigration, tax reconciliation is quietly moving forward.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 29, 2006
Bird flu theme takes flight, stock-friendly Fed news, protectionism recedes.

MACROCOSM
Why Rates Can't Clock Stocks
March 23, 2006
How can stocks and interest rates make new highs at the same time?

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 16, 2006
Updates on extending the 2003 tax cuts, and the avian influenza theme.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Avian Flu: Risk and Opportunity
March 6, 2006
When infected birds show up on US soil this year, it will be a further windfall for biotech companies.

FED SHADOW
Is Ben Bernanke a Phillips Head?
March 1, 2006
Does the Fed chair mean it when he says that maximum employment and price stability are compatible?

POLITICAL PULSE
Extending Visibility
February 17, 2006
Chances for extension of the 2003 tax cuts have gotten better -- and markets are beginning to see it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Byrd Rule and Extension of the 2003 Tax Cuts
February 8, 2006

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
February 7, 2006
What's driving gold, corporate earnings slowdown, and tax cut extension progress.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quick Takes from Washington
February 2, 2006
Extending the tax cuts and the GOP majority, new Fed governors, new CEA chair.

MACROCOSM
Election Risk: It's Back
January 26, 2006
The 2006 congressional elections are coming into view as a driver of stock prices

MACROCOSM
Resilience or Folly?
January 20, 2006
Stocks have weathered well this week, but we're suspicious.

MACROCOSM
Accidentally on Purpose
January 11, 2006
How the stock market and the Fed are getting it right by getting it wrong.

MACROCOSM
Don't Put a Fork In It
January 6, 2006
The Fed's not done, and either is extending capital-friendly tax rates.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Conundrum
December 20, 2005
As the new Fed chairman takes office, his deepest beliefs will pull him in opposite policy directions.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Bill Game Theory, and Why It Matters
December 8, 2005
More thrills and spills on the way to extension of the 2003 tax cuts -- and a remembrance of what those cuts have done for the economy.

POLITICAL PULSE
Heading into the Tax Bill Endgame
December 2, 2005
Stocks are priced neither for the best nor the worst policy outcomes.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Whiff of Windfall Profits Taxes
November 17, 2005
Extending the 2003 tax cuts is now complicated by an accounting penalty on big oil.

POLITICAL PULSE
Beyond Disappointment
November 11, 2005
Why do stocks hang tough while the Republican pro-growth consensus continues to unravel?

POLITICAL PULSE
A Setback for Extending the 2003 Tax Cuts
November 9, 2005
Grassley's retreat to only one-year extension may be part of a broader retreat for pro-growth policy.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
November 3, 2005
Energy and consumer themes, Bush one year after, looking to 2006, and extending the 2003 tax cuts.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quag Miers for the Fed
October 24, 2005
Handicapping how a dysfunctional White House will select the next Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Attack of the Kohn-heads
October 12, 2005
The emergence of deficit-hawks on the FOMC presents a new prospect for monetary policy risk.

MACROCOSM
What's Spooked Stocks?
October 7, 2005
Already nervous stocks have been discounting deepening political risks.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Played Out
October 5, 2005
The pro-energy and anti-consumer consensus is ripe for reversal.

POLITICAL PULSE
Monetary Step Forward, Fiscal Step Backward
September 29, 2005
Grassley puts tax cuts at risk, while Greenspan gives himself one more vote.

POLITICAL PULSE
The McCain Mutiny
September 23, 2005
A deficit hawk has emerged as the unlikely man at the margin on tax cuts.

MACROCOSM
So Far So Good
September 15, 2005
Pro-growth policy is still on track, despite post-Katrina economic and spending shocks.

MACROCOSM
Blamestorm
September 6, 2005
The post-Katrina risks to markets are mostly political, not economic.

MACROCOSM
Water In The Streets
September 1, 2005
Katrina could trigger important revaluations in stocks, bonds, and oil.

MACROCOSM
Oil In Perspective
August 25, 2005
The risk from record oil prices is less than meets the eye -- or, at least, different.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's Oil Crisis
August 15, 2005
The oil spike has a strong inflationary component -- yet it may make the Fed less vigilant.

MACROCOSM
Are Stocks Protected from Protectionism?
August 4, 2005
The market has celebrated deliverance from the China tariff crisis -- but is it really over?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Yuan Revaluation
July 21, 2005

MACROCOSM
Earnings Surprise
July 15, 2005
In a pessimistic and politicized world, stocks are just barely beginning to reflect the macro positives.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the London Bombings
July 7, 2005

MACROCOSM
Policy Takes A Right Turn
July 5, 2005
Trade, monetary and tax policy risks all abated last week: good news for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
June 23, 2005
Oil, inflation plays, Social Security, global warming and China.

MACROCOSM
The King of Carry Trades
June 14, 2005
The carry trade with the best mark-to-value and the most valuable optionality is the one that no one is doing.

MACROCOSM
Efficient Equals Wrong
June 10, 2005
We aren't buying the stories the "efficient" bond market is telling, and either is Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Listen Up
June 2, 2005
Stocks are telling us that inflation risk is moderating, rates are rising, and that growth will be steady.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Judicial Nominations Pact
May 25, 2005

MACROCOSM
Ducked Bullets
May 20, 2005
Risks to equities are improving, and so are prices -- yet stocks are as cheap as ever.

MACROCOSM
Valuation Brinksmanship
May 12, 2005
Stocks have pulled back from a value abyss -- shades of March, 2003.

FED SHADOW
Department of Corrections
May 4, 2005
The FOMC corrected its statement yesterday -- but when will the Fed correct the bond market.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Inflation: Disagreement Among Friends
April 26, 2005
Even economists who respect market-based price signals are missing the evidence of more inflation yet to come.

MACROCOSM
Tsunamis! Killer Asteroids! Protectionism!
April 21, 2005
Add another one to the list of risks driving stocks to historic undervaluation.

MACROCOSM
Back to Square One
April 15, 2005
In growth-sensitive markets now, it’s as though the presidential election never happened.

POLITICAL PULSE
Waiting for a "Swift Boats Moment"
April 7, 2005
Undervalued stocks need a catalyst that clears the overhang of tax policy risk.

MACROCOSM
The End of a Theme
March 29, 2005
If the Fed follows through, it's good for stocks and bad for the reflation/inflation plays.

MACROCOSM
About Time
March 21, 2005
The Fed finally awakens to the inflation threat -- and in time to remain "measured."

MACROCOSM
Inflation Now
March 14, 2005
Undervalued stocks have absorbed the inflation scare that has devastated bonds.

MACROCOSM
Buried Alive?
March 3, 2005
Social Security reform is tied to the Bush growth agenda -- and both are still in play.

POLITICAL PULSE
Pyrrhic Victory?
February 23, 2005
Bush risks throwing away his tax cuts in a gambit to win Social Security reform.

MARKET CALLS
A Question of Value
February 14, 2005
Cheap stocks in a robust economic environment are an outstanding risk/return play.

POLITICAL PULSE
The 3% Finesse
February 8, 2005
Bush's misunderstood benefit offset could be the key to enacting personal accounts in Social Security.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Purple Finger of Fate
Thursday, February 3, 2005
The successful Iraq election opens a window for pro-growth policy success.

POLITICAL PULSE
Policy Paranoia
January 24, 2005
Stocks are exaggerating the risk that the Social Security debate is getting out of control.

MACROCOSM
Waiting for the River
January 18, 2005
It's another high-stakes hand of Texas Hold-'em, Bush style.

MACROCOSM
The Rate Stuff
January 5, 2005
The new year begins with a rate scare for stocks -- and a buying opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Social Security: Politics and Economics
December 21, 2004
The inner financial and political dynamics of Social Security reform, and what they mean for markets.

POLITICAL PULSE
Next Year's Miracle
December 14, 2004
Here's the likely shape of Bush's big bet for 2005: Social Security reform with private accounts.

MACROCOSM
We've Only Just Begun
December 3, 2004
There's still air in the "bubble of fear" -- and room on the upside for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Stop Worrying and Love the Bond?
November 18, 2004
No -- bonds are as wrong as the Fed is if they imagine there is no inflation threat.

MACROCOSM
Unlocking "The Bush Rally"
November 12, 2004
Election: click. Oil: click. Economy: click. The Fed: clunk!

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Big Score
November 5, 2004
Bush wins. Stocks win. And the political futures markets win.

MARKET CALLS
Don't Miss the Obvious
November 2, 2004
A bubble of fear has driven stocks to deep undervaluation, and that bubble is about to burst.

POLITICAL PULSE
Y2K Then, EY04 Now
October 25, 2004
Democrats say they will litigate the election -- and markets believe them.

MACROCOSM
Broken?
October 15, 2004
Some important things are broken. But stocks are priced as though they can never be fixed.

MACROCOSM
Getting Back Into Whack
October 5, 2004
Political markets, capital markets and labor markets are all recovering from extreme disequilibriums.

POLITICAL PULSE
Many A Slip
October 1, 2004
Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time to start whispering about October 8.

MACROCOSM
Bush Out of Whack
September 22, 2004
How come markets haven't rallied as much as George Bush has?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush Under Speculative Attack
September 14, 2004

POLITICAL PULSE

The Bush-Bashing Bubble Has Burst
September 7, 2004
The markets and the economy may finally be getting visibility on a Bush victory.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
An Olympic-Size Risk
August 26, 2004
The controversy over Olympic gymnastic gold may be a precursor of another contested presidential election.

MACROCOSM
Is It "All About Oil"?
August 20, 2004
Or is oil all about President George W. Bush?

POLITICAL PULSE
Not So Nifty Fifty-Fifty
August 13, 2004
We're at the point of maximum electoral uncertainty -- and it may continue until well after the election.

MACROCOSM
Oil, Jobs and Equities
August 6, 2004
Oil and jobs mean higher levels of political and monetary risk -- but the economy is still robust and stocks are very cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the No-Bounce Bounce
August 3, 2004

MACROCOSM
Just Chute Me
July 29, 2004
Over-excited fantasies have elevated risk premiums at the bottom of the trading range.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: A Trading Value Play
July 20, 2004
Back at the bottom of the trading range, the Technology Sector looks cheap in relative and absolute terms.

MACROCOSM
The Ghosts of 2000
July 15, 2004
Intel's earnings report evokes the precipice before the fall -- but that was then and this is now.

MACROCOSM
The Republic of Hanging Chad
July 7, 2004
Markets twist in the wind while tax and monetary policy are up for grabs.

FED SHADOW
Measure This!
June 25, 2004
You can't fight the numbers: trusting the Fed has been an expensive mistake.

MACROCOSM
Coming to Terms with Inflation Reality
June 21, 2004
Most investors don't "get it" that inflation is alive short-term, and that disinflation is dead long-term.

MACROCOSM
Summer of our Discontent
June 7, 2004
Equities are hostage to resolution on inflation and the election.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
More Thoughts on $40 Crude
May 26, 2004
This time it really is different: today's high oil prices don't have to mean a rerun of "That 70's Show."

MACROCOSM
Climbing the Wall of Self-Loathing
May 18, 2004
With the world supposedly falling apart, why isn't the market more scared?

MACROCOSM
The Right Tight
May 13, 2004
Tightening cycles can be good for stocks -- if the Fed gets it right for a change.

MACROCOSM
Measured
May 5, 2004
Bonds lose, stocks win. 

MACROCOSM
A Buyable Consolidation?
April 28, 2004
So where's the "buyable dip"? Maybe this is it.

MACROCOSM
Buyable Dip? Yes, But...
April 16, 2004
Higher interest rates are not to be feared -- provided the Fed really delivers them, and Bush dodges the political fallout.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: Back in Harm's Way?
April 8, 2004
With new political uncertainties and no valuation tailwinds, the tech sector is suddenly not so compelling.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush and Jobs
April 2, 2004

MACROCOSM
More At Stake Than Jobs
April 1, 2004
Bush (and the market) survived Richard Clarke. Now for tomorrow's payroll jobs number.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Bush Breakout
March 19, 2004
After two months of silence, Bush is back. It's time to unwind the Kerry trade.

MACROCOSM
The Kerry Trade
March 12, 2004
Political uncertainty is opening up an interesting value opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Tough Time for Tech
March 8, 2004
The most growth-sensitive sector is caught in the crossfire of political and monetary risks.

MACROCOSM
Inflationary Paradoxes
March 3, 2004
Markets struggle to come to terms with the reality of inflationary acceleration.

MACROCOSM
If There's No Inflation, Then How Come...
February 23, 2004
...basic materials sector earnings forecasts are exploding, and price hikes are starting to move through the pipeline?

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
China and Inflation
February 18, 2004
Our inflationary fears are not reduced by the several popular China theories.

MARKET CALLS
A Tricky Mixture
February 10, 2004
Equity sectors are being driven by both growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
A Buyable Dip
January 29, 2004
Rising rates here won't be bad for stocks, knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.

POLITICAL PULSE
Iowa -- Who's Upset?
January 22, 2004
Kerry's Iowa surprise changes the market's perceptions of electoral risks for the economy.

MACROCOSM
"It" Can Happen Here
January 15, 2004
The "it" is inflation, and "it" will happen. 1987 deja vu all over again?

MACROCOSM
The Tax Cut Gift that Keeps on Giving
January 5, 2004
Last year's rally barely moved valuations on an after-tax basis, and stocks are still cheap.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Considerable Seduction
December 17, 2003
The Fed's campaign to lower long-term yields and increase inflation is a dangerous bait-and-switch.

MARKET CALLS
The Best Materials
December 9, 2003
In stocks, a new fastest horse emerges as the reflationary expansion turns inflationary.

MACROCOSM
The Inflation Chartbook
December 2, 2003
Despite what the Fed says, forward-looking market-based metrics point to inflation.

MACROCOSM
Gold $400
November 19, 2003
400 is just a number. Gold is just a barbarous relic. And Helen of Troy was just a woman.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
The Politics of Expansion
November 10, 2003
The conventional wisdom is catching up to the market in seeing the economic expansion -- and that presents some new risks.

MACROCOSM
The Road to Hope
November 6,
Risks abound, but is it time to stop worrying and love the expansion?

MARKET CALLS
Investing at the Brink
October 30, 2003
Picking the winners and losers as the Fed sleepwalks at the edge of inflation.

POLITICAL PULSE
Frustrated and Concerned
October 21, 2003
John Snow said something sensible yesterday. That begs the question -- why?

POLITICAL PULSE
The Potential Price of Pandering
October 17, 2003
The administration's politicized dollar policy risks the market's confidence in economic recovery.

MACROCOSM
Tech's Top Line is Back
October 10, 2003
Tech has moved beyond the "sales-less recovery."

MACROCOSM
Greenspan, Gold and Growth
October 6, 2003
Why isn't the stock market reacting better to Friday's jobs growth news?

POLITICAL PULSE
Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
September 25, 2003
Political posturing and unsound economics threatens the expansion.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Deficit and Growth
September 22, 2003
The deficit is a reflection of our performance-based economy -- slow growth was its cause, and fast growth will be its cure.

MACROCOSM
Is There a Tech Valuation Headwind?
September 12, 2003
Tech is no bargain, but it's at the center of an investment-led recovery.

MACROCOSM
Hope, Greed, Fear, Worry and the Fed
September 5, 2003
Fed policy will help stocks climb the wall of worry, even if it is entirely absurd.

POLITICAL PULSE
Another Scandal
September 4, 2003
Spitzer's new front is probably a non-event -- but here are the risks you might not have considered.

MACROCOSM
Did the Tax Cuts Pay Dividends?
August 25, 2003
All the evidence is that the tax cuts on dividends and capital gains are performing exactly as predicted.

MACROCOSM
In Synch
August 19, 2003
Earnings revisions and bond yields are telling the same pro-growth story.

 

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
Fed Cred
August 13, 2003
Did the Fed break its promise to the bond market... or is it just that you can't cheat an honest man?

 

MACROCOSM
New Dynamics for Equities
August 4, 2003
Earnings recovery is solidly in place, but stocks will have to adapt to a new era of fair valuation.

 

MACROCOSM
A Phase-Shift in Valuation
July 28, 2003
Stocks and bonds have worked together to collapse the equity risk premium.


FED SHADOW
Bernanke to the Rescue?
July 23, 2003
Bernanke's homage to deflation-fighting will provide only short-term comfort to battered bond bulls.

 

MACROCOSM
Flies in the Ointment
July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets are pausing to consider the risks.

 

MACROCOSM
The Whiff of Animal Spirits
July 10, 2003
The resurgence of restructuring activity is the precursor of economic expansion.

 

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Microsoft's Options Reboot
July 9, 2003
Ending option grants could be the prelude to paying out Microsoft's $46 billion hoard.

 

FED SHADOW
How Much Will These Free Options Cost?
June 25, 2003
Unworried about inflation, the Fed's trying to gun the economy.

 

MARKET CALLS
Four Pillars of Wisdom
June 20, 2003
Valuation, monetary policy and tax policy are all in bull-mode. But there's a fourth factor.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Mankiw Very Much
June 13, 2003
Dr. Mankiw looks like he'll be a valuable pro-growth member of the Bush team.

 

MACROCOSM
Aftermath of a Tax Cut Miracle
May 27, 2003
After the dangerous journey to achieving an historic tax cut, can the market let itself enjoy the good news?

 

MACROCOSM
Another Quarter, Another Crisis?
May 20, 2003
Take a deep breath and have a calm look at the dollar and the coming tax cut.

 

FED SHADOW
Portrait of the Greenspan Era
May 6, 2003
When it comes to monetary policy, a picture may be worth 100,000 of Alan Greenspan's words.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Self-inflicted Damage in the Tax Wars
April 30, 2003
If the administration is going to sell its tax-cuts, it had better change its pitch.

 

MACROCOSM
Back from the War
April 16, 2003
It's back to business for the economy and for President Bush.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
The Hanging-Chad Tax-Cut
April 10, 2003
The market doesn't want to wait for Bush's tax-cuts -- but a rush to cut a lousy deal is even worse.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Notes from the West Wing
April 3, 2003
The war comes first. Nevertheless, the market underestimates the chances for pro-growth tax-cuts.

 

MACROCOSM
Tracking the Tax Wars
March 27, 2003
Bush's defeat in the Senate on tax-cuts is a victory -- the question is: what kind of victory?

 

MARKET CALLS
W's Bottom
March 24, 2003
The bears get their say this week as the war gets real -- but markets have seen the worst.

 

MACROCOSM
The No-Peace Rally
March 20, 2003
The war has moved from the UN to Iraq, and the fever of uncertainty has broken.

 

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
NASDAQ 5000, Dow 5000
March 10, 2003
The high-water mark of optimism versus today's ebb tide of pessimism.

 

MACROCOSM
Buffetted
March 6, 2003
Warren Buffett's perplexity reflects the market's paradoxical combination of growth and value plays.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Going for Broke?
February 28, 2003
The paradox of Bush's strategy is that he's ramping up political risk as his approval ratings decline.

 

MACROCOSM
Techstocks: Recovery Play and War Hedge
February 18, 2003
Techstocks have beaten the market this year -- thanks to both economic recovery and the risks of war.

 

MACROCOSM
Understanding War Risk
February 12, 2003
Yes, the markets fear the risk of war -- but it's a risk with both a downside and an upside.

 

MACROCOSM
Beyond Iraq
January 27, 2003
Shifts in valuations are hinting that there's growth out there beyond the risk of war.

 

MACROCOSM
Assessing the Tax-Cut: Part 1 -- The Dividend Windfall
January 22, 2003
Long-term effects aside, here's why a dividend tax-cut would be a bolt from the blue that would boost all stock prices.

 

MACROCOSM
Microsoft's "Starter Dividend"
January 17, 2003
Bush's tax-cut plan hasn't even been proposed to Congress yet, but it's already starting to work.
 

POLITICAL PULSE
Born-Again Growth Advocacy
January 8, 2003
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an important pro-growth initiative.

 

MACROCOSM
Gameplan for the New Year
January 6, 2003
A macro view of the major US asset classes, and a new Model Position in bonds.

 

MACROCOSM
Bush's Tax Cuts: Curb Your Enthusiasm
January 2, 2003
Hopes for pro-growth tax policy initiatives are worse than dead -- they've never even been born.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
A Lott for Markets to Think About
December 16, 2002
There are both big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis -- while we wait, there's big uncertainty.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Bush's Growth Deficit 
December 11, 2002
If Stephen Friedman is out of step with Bush's economic ideology, why did Bush pick him in the first place?

 

MARKET CALLS
The Tech Recovery -- But...
December 6, 2002
Is the NASDAQ saying that tech is back, or just that investors are now more risk tolerant?

 

MARKET CALLS
Tech Out of Whack, Once Again

November 25, 2002
In the last month's recovery, technology stocks have become extremely overvalued relative to the rest of the market.

 

MACROCOSM
A Deflation Dichotomy
November 18, 2002

The Fed's finally fighting deflation -- but if deflation is already subsiding, then they're making a whole new world of risk.

 

MARKET CALLS
Harvey, We Hardly Knew Ye  
November 13, 2002
Harvey Pitt and Robert Herdman were helping companies transition to higher levels of regulatory compliance -- it will be a riskier market without them.

 

POLITICAL PULSE
Don't Get Swept Away by the Sweep
November 6, 2002
The GOP sweep lessens the odds of two years of worsening policy stagnation. But it's not exactly a third term for Ronald Reagan.

 

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Resistance is Not Futile
November 5, 2002
In the war on capitalism, the Microsoft decision was an important victory for the capitalists -- because it shows that victory is possible.

 

MACROCOSM
Will Spring Return in the Growth?
October 30, 2002
Value can only take the stock market so far. Stocks are all about growth.

 

MARKET CALLS
Until Intel
October 16, 2002
Earnings season was full of pleasant surprises -- until Intel. But was Intel's miss really a surprise.

 

MARKET CALLS
Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
Capital markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.

 

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
1001 Bearabian Nights
October 10, 2002
By Monday we could be in the longest bear market in history -- and it was all caused by one man.

 

MACROCOSM
Earnings Tell the Tale
October 3, 2002
Our anemic "techless recovery" is perfectly reflected in corporate earnings.

 

MARKET CALLS
Q1 2000 Upside Down?
October 1, 2002
Learning about what hopefully is 2002's bottom by looking at 2000's top.

 

MARKET CALLS
Let's Play Survivor
September 24, 2002
It's now a game of life and death in techland. For most portfolio managers, what counts is picking the best survivors.

 

MACROCOSM
911: Why It Matters, Why It Doesn't
September 11, 2002
Understanding the macroeconomic impacts of 911 -- real and imagined, economic and political.

 

MACROCOSM
NY Minutes: Valuation and Deflation -- No Elation
September 4, 2002
We didn't meet one bull on Wall Street last week, yet equity values are attractive and deflationary pressures are under control.

MARKET CALLS
CEO Certifications: 16,000 Unexploded Landmines
August 14, 2002
Today's deadline is being portrayed as a non-event -- but the certification requirement is worse than you think.

MARKET CALLS
Lifeline Cisco
August 7, 2002
It may no longer be a "wealth creation machine," but Cisco is going to keep Silicon Valley alive for at least another quarter.

MARKET CALLS
The Earnings Party Where Nobody Came
August 2, 2002
The strange dynamics of the past earnings season -- upside surprises, downside revisions, and an uptick for tech.

MARKET CALLS
Eyeing the Hurricane
July 31, 2002
The market's "reflexive" spiral has burned itself out for the moment -- leaving the S&P 500 still significantly undervalued.

MARKET CALLS
Extremes
July 24, 2002
Stocks are extremely cheap and extremely destabilized. But taking a long-term view -- they may really be extremely normal.

MACROCOSM
Value and Chaos
July 22, 2002
The market's cheaper than it's been in 14-1/2 years. But what will it take to break out of this "reflexive" death-spiral?

MARKET CALLS
Dam Lies?
July 17, 2002
When the Treasury Undersecretary says the market is overvalued, you'd better listen -- because the Bush administration is making it so.

POLITICAL PULSE
Stock Options Expense: One Step Ahead of the Law
July 16, 2002
Coca Cola and Washington Post may be making a virtue of necessity by volunteering to expense options -- but they're an example of how free markets can enforce corporate accountability.

POLITICAL PULSE
Triple Witching Hour for the Stock Options Tax-Hike
July 15, 2002
In the super-charged anti-business atmosphere of Washington, the dreaded Levin-McCain stock options bill -- S.1940 -- is at-the-money.

MARKET CALLS
A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002
In tech, recovery is elusive and stocks are still rich. The Old Economy is now the engine of recovery -- and it's cheap.

MARKET CALLS
The End of the World[Com]
June 26, 2002
The latest accounting bombshell will have investors wondering "what is reality?" It could create a great buying opportunity.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Excuses, Excuses
June 25, 2002
The "don't fight the Fed" and "super-V superbull" crowds are capitulating -- and that's an opportunity for the rest of us.

MARKET CALLS
Earth to Techstocks: "Your 15 Minutes Are Up"
June 19, 2002
Oracle beats, but the tech sector will still get beat up. The focus of economic recovery is elsewhere.

MARKET CALLS
Normal Valuation: Where Do We Go from Here?
June 11, 2002
The overall market is normally valued for the first time in 5-1/2 years and earnings recovery is at hand -- what are the risks?

MARKET CALLS
Intel: No News is Big News
June 7, 2002
Intel's blockbuster guidance revision shouldn't have been a surprise -- but it may signal the beginning of the end for whacky techstock valuations.

MARKET CALLS
Return to Normalcy?
June 4, 2002
The equity market has finally returned to a normal level of earnings-based valuation... but what's normal? And will the earnings be there?

MACROCOSM
WorldCom: Is There Life after Death?
May 30, 2002
The regulators and the Fed nearly killed WorldCom -- now they may have to try to save it.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Semiconductors: Down By Law
May 22, 2002
Chips aren't just commodities, and it's going to take a lot more than deflation-relief to get the semiconductor industry over the problems created by Moore's Law.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Stock Options Expense: The Big Truth
May 15, 2002
Investors are insisting that options expense be included in income statements -- but they'll be shocked when they learn how big these expenses really are.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Debating the Valuation Conundrum
May 13, 2002
David Gitlitz doesn't agree that equity valuations got too high in the late 1990s -- but he and Luskin both think they're too high now.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The New High Plateau: The Valuation Conundrum
May 10, 2002
The best reasons for the current era of high equity valuations aren't very good.

MARKET CALLS
Into the Valley of Death Rides Cisco
May 8, 2002
Cannon to the right of them, cannon to the left of them -- Cisco's report won't be enough to save tech's earnings season.

MACROCOSM
The "E" in the S&P's "V"
May 7, 2002
Tech stocks may be overpriced relative to earnings forecasts. But for the S&P 500, the earnings forecasts themselves are overblown.

MACROCOSM
AO Hell
April 25, 2002
The growth dream is over at AOL. And the rest of the tech sector may be starting to wake up to reality, too.

MARKET CALLS
Mind the Gap
April 24, 2002
The economy still can't generate the earnings recovery that techstocks need. But it's time to take some more profits off the table.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
IBM's Defense Rests
April 18, 2002
Like OJ, IBM says it was framed. But that doesn't mean that it's not guilty.

MACROCOSM
Expectations and Realities for Earnings Season
April 11, 2002
Expectations still run rampant. But this earnings season, reality may get the upper hand.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Can Anybody Here Play This Game?
April 4, 2002
How we can rely on faulty analyst estimates to gauge value in the markets? Because sometimes stock prices are even worse.

MACROCOSM
The Pension Headwind: The Final Tally
April 4, 2002
Fiscal 2001 is now officially over, so we can survey the damage to pension assets last year, and predict the hit to earnings this year.

MARKET CALLS
Tech Hits the Wall
April 3, 2002
Pass the "V"-agra! The steady march of upward earnings revisions from the September lows has stalled out.

MACROCOSM
Up Against the Pension Headwind
March 27, 2002
As corporate earnings attempt to recover in 2002, they face a huge locked-in obstacle from lower pension returns -- no matter how well the market performs.

MARKET CALLS
The NASDAQ's Wyle E. Coyote Recovery
March 21, 2002
There's lots of happy-talk about recovery. But we still say the NASDAQ is fighting the tides of value, risk and history.

POLITICAL PULSE
Beware of Senators Bearing Tax Hikes
March 15, 2002
Don't kid yourself that S.1940 is about earnings transparency. It's all about hidden taxes.

MACROCOSM
Intel: Dead in the Water
March 8, 2002
The economy is supposed to be recovering. So why isn't Intel?

MARKET CALLS
A Gnash Equilibrium?
March 4, 2002
Stocks have been in a violent trading range -- valuation risks still cap the upside, and eternally springing hopes for a "V" recovery provide the floor.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Greenspan's Q&A: Hot Spots and High Points
February 28, 2002
If you didn't catch the Q&A following Greenspan's congressional testimony, here are the lecture notes, annotated and linked.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Penron II: More Pension Tension
February 27, 2002
Enron's new pension scam will throw light on ugly pension realities across the board.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Enronic Cleansing: Be Warned
February 22, 2002
The New York Post stories about Cisco are a template for attacking every technology company in America.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Penron? Truth and Hype about "The Pension Bomb"
February 19, 2002
The impact of pension problems on earnings and balance sheets is bad enough without imagining it's another Enron.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Shorting JGB's: Tricks of the Trade
February 11, 2002
Don't forget that there's a currency play here too -- but you have to go to a little extra trouble to make it.

MARKET CALLS
On the Road to Equilibrium
February 4, 2002
The markets are still out of whack, but the worst excesses of misvaluation have been repaired.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Enron, Krugman, and the Public Intellectuals
January 28, 2002
Paul Krugman and other pundits got splashed with Enron's mud last week. Should anyone care?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Biotech Comes Down With Enronitis
January 24, 2002
The ImClone imPlosion has made a risky sector look even riskier. But that's not all that ails biotech.

MACROCOSM
Sobering Up
January 22, 2002
That New Year's party was fun. But now the markets and the economy are facing a deflationary reality that doesn't have a super-V in it.

FED SHADOW
Greenspan's Message, and Why It Clocked Stocks
January 14, 2002
In both text and subtext, Greenspan's message was bad news for equities.

MARKET CALLS
Don't Blame the Long Bond!
January 7, 2002
The huge gap between bond yields and the "earnings yield" of stocks is all across the curve.

MARKET CALLS
A Little Problem of Reality
January 4, 2002
The stock market is off with a bang for the new year. Can the real world possibly keep up?

FED SHADOW
The 1990s Boom-and-Bust: Learning the Wrong Lessons
December 31, 2001
How can we hope to restore the prosperity of the 1990s when no one understands why it ended?

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Don't Believe Everything You Read Over and Over Again
December 24, 2001
There's a myth out there about the stock market signaling robust recovery. But believing it doesn't make it true.

MARKET CALLS
Rebalancing Act
December 20, 2001
Expect volatility: tomorrow all the major indexes rebalance -- so that means that all the major indexers will rebalance, too.

MARKET CALLS
The Yield Gap, Sector by Sector
December 19, 2001
"V"-mania has afflicted technology stocks -- that's an opportunity both for asset allocators and sector allocators. 

MARKET CALLS
Vay Out of Vack -- Even for a "V"
December 10, 2001
Unless a "V" recovery va-va-va-vooms into earnings and reflation hard and fast, we've got an unbalanced market that favors a shift out of tech stocks and into bonds.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
What Enron's Collapse Doesn't Mean
December 4, 2001
Some people saw Satan's face in the smoke from the World Trade Center. Others see Enron's troubles as a reason not to reform Social Security.

MARKET CALLS
It Could Be Worse... But That Doesn't Mean It'll Get Better
December 3, 2001
We've rallied back from death's door -- but we're still well within the context of recession.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION

Deflation: Early Hopes, and the Metrics of Headwinds
November 30, 2001
Some smart people are talking about an end to deflation -- but if it keeps going, here are some facts you need to know.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Name of the Beast
November 27, 2001
Call it a "recession" or call it "Marvin" -- either way we're just playing a useless name game.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Laffer's Curveball
November 21, 2001

Arthur Laffer must be rolling in his grave. Wait... he's still alive!

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Deflation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
November 20, 2001

Sometimes falling prices can be good -- but that's not deflation. When prices fall due to deflation, things get ugly.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Deflation: The Basics
November 19, 2001

Deflation is not falling prices. Deflation is not economic contraction. Deflation is when the Fed screws up.

MARKET CALLS
Cisco’s Twelve-Step Program for Recovering Techstocks
November 6, 2001

Last night we saw a new John Chambers and a new Cisco -- with a new confidence born of having confessed the worst. But the market may not like the truth.

MACROCOSM
After Broken Windows: Open Windows
November 5, 2001
The Microsoft settlement isn't perfect, but it's a victory for the forces of growth and recovery -- and a slap in the face to the enemies of free markets.

THOUGHT CONTAGION
"Get the Hell Out of My Way!"
November 2, 2001

Antitrust laws are a tax -- and there are some signs that there may be a tax cut coming.

MACROCOSM
Beyond Broken Windows: What if the Market is Right?
October 29, 2001

The market seems to think a world at war with terror is good for business. It's time to start understanding why.

MARKET CALLS
Portfolio Secrets of Neutron Jack
October 25, 2001

In hard times, the most powerful companies don't just survive. They get stronger. And those are the stocks you want.

MACROCOSM
It’s Not the End of the World -- Just "As We Knew It"
October 22, 2001

We've ridden out the crisis. But  we're still in a world of risk.

MARKET CALLS
Uncle Sam Wants You... To Make Your Quarter!
October 19, 2001

It's a CEO's patriotic duty in time of war. And in war, truth is always the first victim.

MARKET CALLS
Theme Song: It Jihad To Be You
October 18, 2001

How to play the defense theme -- and some thoughts about when to stop playing it.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Back Off Floyd, Valuations Aren't That High!
October 16, 2001

Usually financial hocus-pocus is designed to make stocks look cheap -- but here's some sleight of hand designed to make them look expensive.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Of Caterpillars and Capital Gains 
October 10, 2001

To really stimulate the economy, we have to coax investors to take risks again. And the way to do that is with a capital-gains tax cut.

MACROCOSM
Bombing, or Defusing a Bomb?
October 9, 2001
Yesterday's "attack" on Afghanistan had no impact on the market because this isn't a "war."

MACROCOSM
Report Card on The Rally
October 5, 2001
This rally's been brewing for two weeks, and Cisco's good news is just a small part of it. But should we trust it?

MARKET CALLS
Sky High Valuations -- From Denial to Bargaining
October 3, 2001

You can tell yourself that today's price earnings multiples are so high because of low interest rates. Or you can face the truth. Your call...

MARKET CALLS
The Jihad Portfolio Marches On
October 2, 2001

As America gears up for war, we keep on gearing up a portfolio designed to go to war, too.

MARKET CALLS
Introducing the Jihad Portfolio
October 1, 2001

It's always a war out there for investors -- the difference is, now it's a real one. Ignore that reality at your peril.

MARKET CALLS
Why Won't Valuations Come Down? They Will!
September 28, 2001

The S&P 500 is still priced for irrational exuberance. And denial is a ribber in Egypt.

MARKET CALLS
Sweet Nothing
September 26, 2001

Yesterday the world stopped and took a breath -- for the first time in two weeks. It was wonderful!

MACROCOSM
Small Steps Out of the Crisis
September 25, 2001

The markets now crave stability. We got just a little bit of it yesterday, and the result was a huge rally.

MACROCOSM
Fear Itself
September 24, 2001

The markets are in a self-feeding cycle of fear as the economy implodes -- and that's how the terrorists can win.

MACROCOSM
Not Quite Everything in Moderation
September 21, 2001

Bush's go-slow approach on the military/diplomatic front is exactly the right thing to do. But we've got to go pedal-to-the-metal on our economic response to terrorism.

FED SHADOW
Alan Greenspan's Perfect Storm
September 19, 2001

Yesterday Greenspan's rate-targeting mechanism totally ruptured -- and it took the bond market down with it.

FED SHADOW
The Cut of Five Thousand Deaths
September 18, 2001

Greenspan's still playing follow-the-market when the market desperately needs a leader.

MARKET CALLS
The Week Ahead
September 17, 2001

An analytical framework for understanding the markets in one of history's riskiest weeks.

MACROCOSM
Rebuild -- And Send Them a Message
September 14, 2001

Here's one way to tell the terrorists where America stands!

MACROCOSM
What Does It Mean If "This Means War" Means War?
September 13, 2001

Markets are galvanized by a crisis -- when it's over. But what if it takes years to be over?

MACROCOSM
Rebuild! Bigger and Better than Ever!
September 12, 2001

We put a man on the moon -- now let's rebuild the World Trade Center in a year... a mile high!

MACROCOSM
In Crisis, Opportunity
September 12, 2001

Tuesday's horrors could be the catalyst the markets and the economy have needed -- the reawakening of "animal spirits" from the ashes of the World Trade Center.

FED SHADOW
Financial Fallout: Here Comes the Rate Cut
September 11, 2001

This morning's terrorist attack will surely trigger new liquidity from the Fed.

MARKET CALLS
Get Over It!
September 11, 2001

The bear market won't be over till investors are honest with themselves about the post-boom-and-bust realities.

MARKET CALLS
When Booms Go Bust

September 10, 2001

This is no ordinary business cycle. It's more like a business cyclone -- and policy response had better realize that!

MARKET CALLS
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy

September 7, 2001

Oh boy. The US government doesn't want to break up Microsoft. Oh boy. Intel affirms in the midrange of its guidance. Oh boy.

MARKET CALLS
Work Hard for the Money

September 6, 2001

The market -- and investors -- are going to have to sweat for every penny of upside in the future.

MACROCOSM
Blockbusted Flush

September 5, 2001

A merger can be an exciting catalyst for the market. And then there's Hewlett Packard and Compaq.

MARKET CALLS
No Catalyst, No Bull Market

September 4, 2001

Without a catalyst, the best we can hope for is stabilization. And that ain't much.

Copyright 2001 through 2014 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
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