Media Appearances

Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients:

Stunning. The lowest new claims number since 1969, when the labor force was only half as big as it is now… And one more thing — in our earnings season surprise-factor update, we are thrilled to tell you that with 106 of 500 companies reported, this is by multiples the best earnings season in history, despite the rampant upgrade surge we’ve experienced over the prior quarter.

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin talks with Paul Gigot about the debut FOMC meeting for Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

Don Luskin at Trend Macrolytics points out that the combination of fewer federal workers and President Donald Trump’s enforcement of immigration law means that the total number of hours worked in the U.S. has actually been declining lately. Mr. Luskin writes in a note to clients today:

"Immigration explained something like two thirds of the job gains from mid-2022 through early 2025, and now it has stopped, indeed it has been running to some extent in reverse. Over the last twelve months, it’s probably been responsible for something like 100,000 outright job losses through deportation that went unreplaced by new immigrants, and had to be made up by absorbing new native-born entrants into employment – only about 65,000 per month, given the age demographics."

Yet as Mr. Luskin explains, people who are still working in the U.S. are getting a lot done lately:

"Over the last four quarters, real private sector output is up 3.39%… How is that possible without more people in more jobs working more hours making the economy bigger? How can we be producing so much more honey without more bees? You know the answer – productivity. Productivity = growth in output per hours worked. Fewer hours. More output… Productivity growth over the last four quarters has been 3.44%. The average over the history of the data is 2.25%. With more honey being produced without more bees, individual bees get wealthier."

Mr. Warsh has written about a new version of the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord that left fiscal policy to the Treasury while letting the central bank focus on monetary matters.

Don Luskin nearby offers one way the two institutions could collaborate in a new Accord to shrink the balance sheet, but there are others. Mr. Warsh isn’t likely to get too specific in Tuesday’s hearing, but the direction he sets will be important. His relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be crucial to pulling this transition off, and by all accounts they get along well.

Don Luskin talks with Paul Gigot about oil prices, closing the Straits of Hormuz, inflation and recession.

The larger reality is that Mr. Trump is so bull-headed about tariffs that he’s going to re-impose them any way he can. Along with Section 122, he’ll fire up more Section 201, 301 and 232 (national security) studies and tariffs. But as our friend Don Luskin points out, these are pea shooters compared to the IEEPA tariffs the Court struck down. They are limited in scope and duration.

Don’t miss this critical conversation. Join our expert panel as we unpack the latest US Supreme Court decision on tariffs. We’ll go beyond the headlines to examine what it means for economic growth, inflation, geopolitics and, most importantly, possible investment impact.

Trend Macrolytics responds to the news in a note to clients that emphasizes the value of businesses investing in capital expenditures, known as capex:

New orders for non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft) makes a new all-time high. Orders are the precursor of capex. Capex is the precursor of growth. We’re in a new productivity supercycle. It’s official.

Don Luskin and Michael Warren at Trend Macrolytics write in a note to clients: "It will take a lot to rehabilitate Venezuela’s depreciated oil infrastructure, but in the meantime, diverting its heavy crude exports to the US would severely disrupt Canada’s and Russia’s exports and China’s imports — giving Trump important leverage in trade and other negotiations."

A new productivity supercycle began in the pandemic during Q2-2020, and will continue in 2026 and likely for another twenty years. AI is already being adopted by businesses large and small, because its human interface is simple enough for anyone to use. It will be adopted both from the top-down and the bottom-up, starting in narrow specialty fields like computer programming (where, already, fewer workers are producing far more output) and broad fields like education and health care. Workers will initially be displaced, but AI will create whole new industries to re-employ them.

Donald L. Luskin explains how the Supreme Court reversing tariffs could be a huge gift to the S&P 500 as refunds hit corporate balance sheets. However, he says the market mostly does not expect this to happen. He believes that America needs to grow its way out of its deficit, and we can’t do that with higher taxes. Therefore, he argues that tariffs, a form of tax, are hurting American growth.

Donald Luskin says a potential Stephen Miran-led Federal Reserve would be "very, very dangerous" for markets, citing Miran's reportedly radical views on devaluing the U.S. dollar. Luskin also weighs in on the jobs picture, attributing recent weak job numbers to a decline in immigration rather than a recessionary economy. Despite concerns about inflation, Luskin thinks it's a "solved problem" and sees the $262 billion in new tax cuts from the "one big beautiful bill" as a major positive for the market.

Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell is just another trick to get your attention, with the Supreme Court having virtually said he can’t do it. Powell is only one vote anyway. Warsh has thrown his hat in the ring to replace Powell, with a mixed message of dovish rate cuts and hawkish quantitative tightening. The economy doesn’t need rate cuts – with unemployment and inflation at target, the current funds rate must be about neutral. Stocks have shrugged off tariff scares, but they would likely be higher without those scares. Trump has been negotiating against himself, and has gotten no trade deals. Now, within weeks, the case against Trump’s IEEPA tariffs will go to the Supreme Court, where the tariffs will likely be struck down unanimously. Trump will come back with smaller, narrower tariffs that will seem like nothing.

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin argues that the oil market has been generously pre-supplied by OPEC, as though they anticipated the conflict between Israel and Iran. He dimisses the US/China trade "deal" as no deal at all, only a climb-down from mutual assured destruction. He expects the Supreme Court will strike down what's left of Trump's tariffs. Will tariffs be inflationary? They've already started to bite, at $70 billion year-to-date. But no inflation, just as there was no inflation in 2018 and 2019 when tariffs were last imposed.

…Our friend Don Luskin of Trend Macro notes another concern, which is two months in a row of shrinking foreign-born employment. Leaving aside the legal and other problems with Joe Biden’s border failures, there’s no doubt that immigrant labor buoyed the job market over his Presidency. That seems to be going into reverse, as you’d expect with the Trump Administration’s crackdown.

In the four months of Trump II, Mr. Luskin calculates that the immigrant population has shrunk by 773,000, or 193,000 a month. Fewer immigrants mean fewer workers to fill job openings, so there will be a cost in future growth from the Trump Administration’s border closure and deportation roundups…

Don Luskin notes that if you strip out the Mag 7 from the S&P 500, “the S&P 493 remains unchanged!” He stresses, “Things aren’t as bad as they feel.” He thinks the Supreme Court could overturn Trump’s tariffs and says he’s not a fan of tariffs in general, as they’re just another form of tax. However, putting them in context, he argues that Trump’s proposed tax cuts outweigh the costs of the tariffs. He also covers the Fed and what he thinks Powell will do next.

Donald Luskin argues that tariffs are “inherently small tax hikes because tariffs only apply to, at most, a base of $3.257 trillion—the total value of goods and services the U.S. imports annually” (“How Much Do Tariffs Matter?,” op-ed, Jan. 29).

Yet they apply more widely than that. Tariffs make cars and housing more expensive, for example, even when they are made with American steel. When President Trump raised steel tariffs in 2018, Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel raised their prices, too, largely because they could get away with it. Reducing competition is the point of many tariffs.

This does, however, reinforce Mr. Luskin’s argument that tariffs are poor revenue raisers. Governments collect only a fraction of the higher prices that consumers pay thanks to tariffs. Much of the rest is corporate welfare.

In “How Much Do Tariffs Matter?” (op-ed, Jan. 29), Donald Luskin claims that tariffs have little effect because he observes little change in inflation rates, gross-domestic-product growth and federal deficits after the introduction of President Trump’s tariffs in 2018.

Yet these economic metrics are influenced by a variety of factors, and we don’t live in a static world in which tariffs are the only variable. Studies have consistently proved that tariffs are inflationary, and if inflation in Mr. Luskin’s observations was unchanged following the introduction of tariffs, then perhaps the only logical conclusion is that inflation would otherwise have gone down in the absence of tariffs.

TrendMacro chief investment officer reacts positively to President Donald Trump's impact on monetary policy and the financial sector.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses how world leaders are pushing back on Elon Musk after he referred to some as ‘tyrannical’ on ‘The Evening Edit.’

Trendmacro CIO Don Luskin weighs in on DOGE's calls to cut back on bank regulators, the economic impact of mass deportations and housing affordability.

TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin discusses higher prices that American families are facing with President-elect Trump set to enter office on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin offers his analysis after Jamie Dimon's criticism of the economy under Biden-Harris on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses the economic struggles hitting various industries under the Biden-Harris administration on 'The Evening Edit.'

Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients today:

"There have been highly volatile days as the presidential election landscape has chaotically emerged. But stocks have been in a less than 14% trading range despite what remains a maximally uncertain outcome poised at 50/50 in the polls, the prediction markets and the models – with both candidates continually improvising ill-considered economic policy proposals. With stocks at all-time highs as Trump’s polling has recently improved, it may be that markets are signaling a slight preference for Trumponomics. House control is 50/50, also. If Senate control were 50/50, the joint probability of one-party control of government by either party would be 25%."

But Mr. Luskin argues that Senate control isn’t 50/50. In his view Republican Senate control is now assured “with West Virginia and Montana in the bag.” He writes:

"The joint probability of one-party control remains 25%, but it can only be by Republicans. That opens the possibility for the extension of expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. But there remains a 75% probability of gridlock, pointing to general stability of economic policy no matter who wins the presidency."

Will the Fed continue to cut? Is there still a possibility of a recession? What’s the trajectory for gold? To tackle these timely questions David Rosenberg and Don Luskin join Ed Coyne and John Hathaway for round two of our Sprott Debate series.

Don Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacro, reacts to the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate on 'The Evening Edit.' 

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says Fed Chair Powell is the most wrong Fed chairman in 'history' on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to former President Trump debuting another new tax break proposal and other taxes that are hurting Americans on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro CEO Don Luskin reacts to Elizabeth Warren's push for bigger Fed rate cuts before the election on 'The Big Money Show.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to provide analysis of revised labor market data.

TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin believes the Fed may not cut as much as other experts expect. As Don discusses with Oliver Renick, he points to job and inflation trends, and talks about why the markets may be "obsessed with rate cuts."

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses inflation from Biden-Harris economic policies on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the economic ideas that Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning on and the myriad of revisions on job report numbers on ‘The Evening Edit.’

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the sell-off as recession fears spark turmoil throughout the global markets.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides his market outlook heading into the 2024 election on 'Morning with Maria.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin argues concerns over America's debt and inflation are being blown out of proportion on 'Making Money.'

A low fertility rate means fewer young adults entering the workforce to replace retirees, leading to labor shortages—unless immigration makes up the difference. In a recent analysis published in these pages, TrendMacro CEO Donald Luskin estimated that foreign-born people represent 80% of the adult-population increase in the U.S. since July 2022 and account for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs. Without these workers, he estimated, the economy would have grown “less than a third as much as it actually has.”

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin reacts to Biden saying he will quadruple the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses the impact of immigration on the labor market on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the market response to turmoil in the Middle East and comments on the overall state of the U.S. economy.

In a departure from our regular interviews, Sprott’s John Hathaway is joined be Luke Gromen and Don Luskin for a lively debate on the economy.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses whether inflation or affordability is the bigger issue for consumers on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin explains why markets should not fear deflation on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin breaks down the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight on ‘Mornings with Maria.’

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin reacts to Biden blaming higher food prices on corporate greed on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses whether the Fed has credibility issues on 'Making Money.'

Trend Macrolytics founder and CIO Donald Luskin argues interest rates are not restrictive on a 'booming' economy and that short-term traders currently have 'viable' market options.

The Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot interviews TrendMacro CEO Donald Luskin on January's bad inflation numbers, the risk of recession and the prospect of deflation.

A "fireside chat" with Donald Luskin, founder of TrendMacro, at the recent CFA Society of Minnesota annual dinner reminded me of the importance of paying attention to productivity. (There was no fireplace but a colorful bouquet of flowers instead.) The CFA Society of Minnesota is one of the oldest chapters of the CFA Institute, issuer of the chartered financial analyst designation.

During his remarks, Luskin made a compelling case for inflation turning into mild deflation — a decline in the overall price level — later this year. He also stressed in his analysis why improvements in productivity weren't ephemeral after emerging from the dramatic economic trauma of the pandemic. In addition to the workforce and business investment gains achieved during the pandemic disruption, he sees the rise of artificial intelligence boosting productivity in the long haul.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin analyzes the Fed's inflation strategy ahead of the January CPI report on 'Making Money.'

The best analysis of this possibility to date is by my old friend Donald Luskin at TrendMacro whose nouse on these matters has always been excellent. On February 8th, his team released a report called How Biden and Trump Can Both Lose. Easily. For months, he has said that there is a 50:50 chance of a contingent election, but now he goes much further and says it’s becoming a central scenario.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin analyzes the Fed's relationship with the Treasury Department on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin analyzes the Federal Reserve's moves to regulate the economy on 'Making Money.'

"No hard landing, no soft landing, no landing at all. We're in a boom. There's no other word for it."

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says it is almost ‘certain’ that the Republicans will take the Senate in 2024 on ‘Making Money.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reflects on his greatest financial hits and misses of the year on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin predicts the Fed will cut rates faster than they normally would in 2024 because they fear deflation on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin pushes back against the Fed's claim that growth causes inflation on 'Making Money.'

Ahead of the December meeting, one economist argued the Federal Reserve's "dangerously high" interest rate hikes are transitory, and that the Fed will make cuts in the first quarter of next year.

On "Mornings with Maria," Monday, TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin explained his frustration with the Fed's rate hike campaign and his economic outlook. 

"Please, please, please, can we all stop listening to Jay Powell? Please. Mr. Inflation is transitory. He is still so embarrassed about that one. He's now insisting that his dangerously high-interest rates are not transitory. Oh, they will be," Luskin said. "Inflation is collapsing and he knows it. It's turning into deflation like I warned last time we talked. There will be rate cuts in Q1."

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin shares his economic outlook on ‘Mornings with Maria.’

TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin and Newedge Wealth CIO Cameron Dawson discuss whether the Fed could lower interest rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024 on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin explains how deflation can help fix the government's inflation problem on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin looks ahead to the October consumer price index and its impact on markets.

TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin argues the Fed is still 'pretending' the US has an inflation problem even though it's largely been conquered on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin reacts to oil prices rallying as attacks on Israel could fuel tensions in the Middle East.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reveals why he is bullish on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the Federal Reserve's moves on 'Making Money.'

"We’re going to have outright deflation." Luskin sees now as an opportunity to lay out some shorts in anticipation of weakness to come.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says a growing economy is 'like a growing boy' on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss the Fed’s potential to continue to raise rates and its impact on bank stocks.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin details how investors can tread an unpredictable market on 'Making Money.'

FOX Business host Charles Payne and TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin weigh in on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga and term limits for officials on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin unpacks disinflation and investing in stocks on 'Making Money.'

Fox News contributor Liz Peek and Trend Macrolytics CIO Donald Luskin discuss former President Donald Trump and President Biden’s South Carolina visits on ‘The Evening Edit.’

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to rising consumer prices on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald L. Luskin weighs in on House Speaker McCarthy's debt deal with President Biden on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on the Fed's response to inflation on 'Mornings with Maria.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on the debt bill on 'Making Money.'

The money supply doesn’t tell the whole story.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides insight on inflation on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the debt ceiling debate and the Fed's policies on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on businesses throwing in the towel on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to the arraignment of President Trump and provides investing advice on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin calls out Fed Chair Powell's leadership on 'Making Money.'

Inflation has everyone’s attention. In this podcast, economist and financial analyst Don Luskin explains to IPI’s Merrill Matthews why the rapid increase in the money supply caused the inflation. And the declining money supply means inflation is on its way down.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to inaccurate data surveys that erode public trust in the market on 'Making Money.'

…the sharp decline in the money supply that began last year will lead to rapid disinflation in the coming months and perhaps a recession. Wall Street forecaster Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI and Don Luskin of Trend Macro are anticipating similar inflation declines and are warning about the risk of recession. They note that Milton Friedman said monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” of a year or two.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to President Biden's response to the Chinese spy balloon on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer reacts to the FTX scandal and reveals the recipe for a good life on 'Making Money.'

Regarding Donald Luskin’s op-ed “The Feds Don’t Want You Betting on Elections” (Nov. 2): Listed futures contracts must serve some commercial purpose, such as hedging grain or currencies. A futures contract for $2 on Backfire in the third race at Pimlico, however, would be gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is saying that electoral futures are gambling, not commercial.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin argues the impact of shutting down election betting silences 'free speech about politics.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides insight on the United States' GDP on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin reacts to PayPal fining users $2,500 for sharing misinformation on 'Making Money.'

Mr. Luskin founded a company, Trend Macrolytics, after a long and distinguished career in the investment sector of the economy… Three years ago, Mr. Luskin relocated his business to Dallas from Chicago… As Luskin says you can see it in their eyes. He told me "When there is opportunity, upward mobility, the way people act accelerates that opportunity into a virtuous cycle. When there is upward mobility, everyone you meet might be someone who can help you move up, so you are always nice, always positive, always helpful, always respectful, always putting your best foot forward. That attitude creates bonds of commitment and trust that are essential to the environment of opportunity. It is therefore a self-fulfilling prophecy. The opposite is true too. When people think there is no opportunity, they act rude, bitter, resentful, untrusting. Even if there were opportunity, that would destroy it."  

TrendMacro chief investment officer shreds President Joe Biden's comments on record-high inflation and weighs in on government programs on 'Making Money with Charles Payne.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on energy production on 'Making Money.'

Is inflation rolling over? What caused it? How long will it take to get back to normal?