Nice week-on-week drops in new and continuing claims, both beating the consensus. Forward earnings keep rising. Bank credit sill above pre-SVB levels. Amazing resiliency. Now with inflation collapsing we have total victory in our grasp, if the Fed will just accept the good news.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 11, 2023
A miss in new claims -- in fact, it was the worst absolute number in 18 months. But the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked up by a mere 1 bp. Separately, PPI beat expectations -- all good news for rate cuts.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 4, 2023
A small miss new claims, but a nice beat in existing claims -- so the claims-implied unemployment rate falls, and supports our model's prediction of a beat in tomorrow's payrolls.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 27, 2023
The labor market remains a house of brick -- big beats in new and continuing claims, and the claims-implied unemployment rate downticks 1 bp.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 20, 2023
Banking conditions continue to ease. Claims rose a bit, and missed. But the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked lower. Hanging in there...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 13, 2023
No recession yet in the high-frequency data. The Chicago Fed's financial stress index loosens up a bit. And there was a small miss in new claims, but a small beat in continuing claims. Meanwhile, a very dovish beat in the Producer Price Index, across all categories (we've updated yesterday's CPI report to show it).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 6, 2023
Jobless claims fell this week (which is good). But upward revisions make claims look worse than previously known. Not a loud-and-clear recession signal, but definitely a directionally negative development, with the implied unemployment rate now gently rising from its long base.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 30, 2023
An important new feature on page 5: we track the Fed's weekly reports on bank assets and liabilities, to follow the flight of deposits from small banks to large, and the banks' rush to liquidity and replacement liabilities. The evidence as it stands: lots of stress visible, but the system is working.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 23, 2023
We need more bank failures, apparently. New claims for unemployment benefits beat the consensus, and dropped to a three-week low. But I suppose we should mention that the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index did tighten a bit (but it's still loose).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 16, 2023
It's too soon to see any SVB effect in new or continuing claims. That said, they both beat. There remains simply no data showing that the economy is heading into recession.