It's this simple. If you don't have a contraction in jobs, you don't have a recession. If you don't have a rise in claims, you won't have a contraction in jobs. Claims beat this morning, both new and continuing. They beat at amazingly low levels. No risk of recession. Move along.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 15, 2024
A beat in claims, below an already low consensus, takes the edge off a disappointing retail sales headline. All is well.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Last week's misses in new and continuing claims have become this week's beats, affirming the blockbuster January labor numbers. All is well.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Little misses from insanely low levels in new and continuing claims bump the implied unemployment rate to 1.45%. Not exactly a recession indicator.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 25, 2024
This morning's reported boom in Q4-23 GDP is beautiful but backward-looking. This morning's high-frequency data is just as beautiful, and beautifully contemporaneous. If you want a recession, you're going to have to wait. And wait...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 18, 2024
In client conversations every day, the recession narrative just won't die. Yet this morning's substantial beat in claims, with new claims the lowest since September, shows that our boom just continues to boom.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 11, 2024
The high-frequency data is still bullet-proof. Big beats in claims move the implied unemployment rate to its lowest level since October.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Is one week too long ago for everyone to remember how misses in claims got everyone all spun about recession again? Well, this week the beats were bigger than last week's misses. The high-frequency data gives us no reason to worry about imminent recession.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 28, 2023
We end a year of recession-proof high-frequency data with bank credit in loans and leases $178 billion higher than the week Silicon Valley Bank failed.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Friday, December 22, 2023
Claims beat again. It's a boom we're in, I tell you. It's a boom. And to all a good night.