The labor market continues to confound Powell, with beats in new and continuing claims that drive the implied unemployment rate to the lowest level since February.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 20, 2023
We were worried the hot weather would drive a spike in new claims, but no -- a nice beat, and a drop in the claims-implied unemployment rate. Of course the Fed will think this represents an inflationary emergency, even as the real-time Truflation gauge turns outright negative for the last 31 days.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 13, 2023
Other than a weather-related drop in rail-freight loadings, the high-frequency data looks great. A beat in new claims lowers the implied unemployment rate, showing no signs of any kind of landing.
Meanwhile, huge dovish beats in the Producer Price Index more than confirm yesterday's disinflationary signal in CPI. We've updated yesterday's Data Insights: CPI/PPI, so click here.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Claims fall, minutes after ADP announces almost half a million new payrolls in June. The panoply of high-frequency data isn't pointing to torrid growth, to be sure -- but there's no recession in the offing.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Six quarters into a relentless "recession is coming" narrative, the claims-implied unemployment rate falls to 1.36% on solid beats in both new and continuing claims.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 22, 2023
The all-important high-frequency labor market data is steady. The bad news is the droop in bank credit over the last two weeks. We'd been hanging in there since the SVB failure, but suddenly that's in doubt.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 15, 2023
US air passenger traffic is now fully back to the pre-pandemic level. But the economy us more than 5% bigger in real terms. Lots of output gap to fill in this productivity-led boom.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 8, 2023
New -- a high-frequency view of CPI from Truflation (see page 8, every week). Their real-time call on trailing 30-day inflation from daily data: 1.96% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the worst new claims number in a year and a half. But the claims-implied unemployment rate is lower than it was six weeks ago.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Bank lending stays flat -- but new and existing claims both beat, and air passenger traffic breaks out to a new high. No landing to be seen.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 25, 2023
The labor market continues to surprise everyone (but us) with another beat in claims. Virtually by definition, you can't have a recession without a rollover in payrolls. And you can't have that without a rise in claims. So far, so good.