Core PCE inflation makes a new cycle low at 2.8% year-on-year. Literally every key metric decelerated -- that is, March's month-change at an annual rate was below that of the trailing three months.
US PCE Inflation
US PCE Inflation
Friday, March 29, 2024
A beat in headline PCE inflation, and Powell's preferred "super-core" falls back to the December lows.
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, February 29, 2024
PCE inflation in-line with expectations for January -- but December's readings were revised sharply lower.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, January 26, 2024
Nice! PCE and Core PCE inflation right at expectations -- but November and October were revised lower! And Powell's preferred (and very secret) inflation measure drops to a mere 3.3% year-on-year.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, December 22, 2023
Powell's secret personal inflation index, core services ex-shelter, grew at a below-target annual rate of 1.48% last month. Year-on-year it's down to a mere 3.48%. Headline PCE deflated sharply on the month at a -0.86% annual rate, and is now at only 2.64% year-on-year. No wonder Powell was so optimistic last week -- presumably he saw this data in advance (or maybe he's started following our monetarist model that predicted all this).
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Nice beats, nice numbers. Headline at 0.6% at an annual rate, core at 1.98%. Powell's super-secret "supercore" at -- wait for it -- 1.73%.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, October 27, 2023
Core PCE inflation is at just 2.54% for the quarter, tantalizingly close to the Fed's 2% target. Amazing for a quarter with 4.9% real GDP growth led by personal consumption expenditures.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, September 29, 2023
Powell's preferred inflation metric ("supercore") below target for the month, and on a year-on-year basis at its lowest level in 23 months. Core below target for the month, too, and only 16 bp above target for the quarter. Can't we please declare victory?
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, August 31, 2023
PCE inflation at expectations. The bad news is that Powell's super-secret personal index of "sticky" inflation (which he doesn't understand is actually lagging inflation) ticked up sharply.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, July 28, 2023
June PCE inflation comes in at 2.97% year-on-year, exactly matching June CPI. Funny, for pretty much the first time in history, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation isn't registering lower than CPI. That said, PCE goods prices are now in outright deflation. And Powell's super-secret "super core" is at its lowest reading in 11 months.