New claims came in worse than expected. The implied unemployment rate is unchanged, but mobility data shows the economy on the move more and more.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 11, 2020
The implied unemployment rate falls to a new open-back-up low. And Rhode Island-- yes, Rhode Island -- becomes the first state with restaurant activity above last year's.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 4, 2020
High-frequency data from claims says the unemployment rate has fallen from 19% to 16%. Tomorrow's lagging jobs report will still say19%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 28, 2020
For the first time since the Covid-2019 crisis began, we have a drop in the implied unemployment rate from continuing claims!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Three and a half weeks, 37 states begin to open up from lockdown -- and there's no statistical evidence that it's making the virus worse.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Here it is, state by state. Judge for yourself whether lockdowns had anything to do with halting the virus. Going forward, see if open-ups trigger the dreaded "second wave."