Bad news this morning in unemployment claims. Both new and continuing beat the consensus. Too many people earning a living. Time for the Fed to announce a recession (for our own good) at Jackson Hole.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Beats in new and continuing claims lower the implied unemployment rate -- good for people trying to make a living, but bad in terms of scaring the FOMC into pulling back from more big rate hikes.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 11, 2022
After two and a half years, the "CDC is streamlining its COVID-19 guidance... This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives." In other words, after all this time of disrupting our lives, it turns out they didn't have to?
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 4, 2022
Hmmmm. The labor market is so tight, the claims-implied unemployment rate went down! What are we missing? What is Jay Powell missing?
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 28, 2022
Not a lot of strong recession evidence in the high-frequency data. New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a lot. The implied unemployment rate is unchanged, lower than it was before the pandemic depression.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 21, 2022
New claims missed, and they've been stealthily creeping higher now for three weeks in a row. But the claims-implied unemployment rate remains an ultra-low 1.06%. In other high-frequency data, forward earnings growth is the only trouble-spot (unfortunately it's the most important).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 14, 2022
In the high-frequency data, trouble spots are forward earnings, rail freight, and mobility. But the labor market is amazingly strong (the claims-implied unemployment rate fell sharply on the week).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 7, 2022
The horrors, the horrors. New and continuing claims miss slightly, so the claims-implied unemployment rate ticks up 11 bp -- to 13 bp better than before the pandemic!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 30, 2022
All the high-frequency data is hanging in there -- but that's not the big news this morning. Headline and core PCE inflation for May both beat expectations, and core YOY is now lower for the third month in a row.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 23, 2022
New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat. Still no signs of recession in the high-frequency data.