The Fed has allowed long-submerged inflation risks to resurface, but appears unlikely to allow the risk to become reality.
Is This What They Had In Mind?
Monday, August 18, 2003
Monday, August 11, 2003
Tomorrow's meeting should bring early hints of a forthcoming policy change.
Short Rates Take the Long View
Friday, August 1, 2003
Today's data was a mixed bag, but short rates continue to forecast resurgent growth.
The Great Unwinding
Thursday, July 31, 2003
Don't fret. This bond market blow-back is overwhelmingly good news.
Flies in the Ointment
Friday, July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets are pausing to consider the risks.
Betting on Growth
Friday, July 11, 2003
The financial markets appear poised for a significant growth rebound, but interest rate futures are lagging behind.
JGB Sell-Off: The Real Deal?
Thursday, July 3, 2003
Japanese government bonds take a tumble, but without monetary reflation, they may not have much further to go.
Bond Market Blow-Off
Friday, June 20, 2003
Treasuries are finally starting to get real about growth prospects and inflation risk.
How Much Room?
Wednesday, June 11, 2003
How much longer will the Fed be able to court inflation risk as it fights a non-existent deflation?
Deflation, Reflation, Exasperation
Tuesday, May 27, 2003
Widespread misunderstanding of today's deflation threat may be as dangerous as deflation itself.