A Conversation with Michael Auslin on potential post-Pelosi post-Ukraine Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has unleashed a new normal of aggressive military demonstrations by the Chinese, but at the same time has vented pent-up demand in the mainland to be seen as "doing something" and obtain real-world experience with untested weapons systems. Invasion remains a very risky enterprise for Chinese leadership, which is already demonstrating it is at the height of its powers with draconian lockdowns. Taiwan's aging and declining population gives it the worst demographics in the world, so China has but to wait a decade and the island will fall into its hands automatically, at which time Xi will likely still be in power to take the win. America and the West completely lack a strategic framework to respond to an invasion, and seem to be willfully ignoring potential nuclear escalation. Ukraine has degenerated into trench warfare, sending China the message that even asymmetric military adventures are costly and uncertain. However spillover into Europe in a broader energy-war could lead to intense hardships and social collapse that would disorder the West just when it might need to respond to Chinese aggression.