Zoom conference call with China/Taiwan expert Michael Auslin

Incorporating Taiwan into China is a longstanding ambition of the Chinese Communist Party. Last year’s move to strip Hong Kong of political independence, and recent provocations in the air and on the sea elevate the risk of a hostile move. But the prestige of the CCP would be at stake; if it tries, it dares not fail. And while its modern and growing military is large and well-equipped, it has no battle experience. Physically taking Taiwan would require the largest amphibian operation in history, and the geography of the island favors defense. Other approaches such as quarantine or cyber-warfare could be effective but not immediately decisive. There is no formal Western commitment to defend Taiwan, and it’s not clear what the US and its allies could do anyway, or would be willing to do. But China would become a pariah in the world, and would likely not act unless there were some kind of opportunistic emergency that could be cited as justification. In the meantime, the CCP has other more existential problems to deal with, especially the aging and outright decline of its population, and its slowing economic growth.