Replay of Zoom conference call with Taiwan expert Michael Auslin

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a win-win for China, positioning it not as an arbiter of the dispute but as a neutral power that can pick up the pieces and profit no matter how it turns out -- including creating a non-dollar payments system that would work around SWIFT. Asia and China are neighbors with a long history of mistrust, but it is in China's interest to support Russia at least sufficiently to keep it stable. Xi's top priority is to remain in power, so Russia's conspicuous non-success in Ukraine is a cautionary example. China has learned that in order to win you have to "go big," or risk getting bogged down. Russia is a second-rate military power with a population of 145 million invading a large nation of 46 million, China is a first-rate power with a population of 1.3 billion opposing a tiny island of 23 million. Going big would not be difficult, but the bigger China goes, the more it risks the outrage of the West. But China does not face an organized Western front like NATO, and the cost to the West of sanctioning China, even if such a thing could be organized, would be prohibitive. Invasion of Taiwan is not in the offing, but China will probe in various ways to test the West's resolve.