For What It’s Worth... TrendMacro’s 2024 Presidential Election Model

If the election were held under today’s economic background, Biden would win by 288 electoral college votes (another Democrat, if Biden doesn’t run, would win by 263). As predicted, we are in a boom with no recession in sight – and by historical norms the incumbent should be easily re-elected. But a model based on historically normed economic data is unreliable in the post-pandemic environment in which fluctuations have been so large and rapid, destabilizing voter perceptions of economic conditions. The rate of inflation has moderated, but prices are still sharply higher than they were three years ago – so is inflation “back to normal” or “sticky” in the minds of voters? A third party candidate such as Manchin might win, appealing to moderate voters revulsed by Trump and Biden. Even a moderate electoral vote win by a third party could throw the election to the congress. On a party-line vote, the House would likely be “hung,” but a bipartisan vote could select a moderate third party candidate. The Senate will have a GOP majority that might pick Trump’s vice presidential candidate, but if he is not moderate enough it could pick a third party candidate such as Romney. If the House is hung, Romney would be president until and unless the House “bumps” him by eventually selecting a president. This would put America effectively on a parliamentary system in which the chief executive serves at the pleasure of the House, to be replaced at any time through inauguration day in 2029 by Biden, the third party candidate, or yes, Donald Trump.