How Biden and Trump Can Both Lose. Easily.

There is at least a 50/50 chance that the presidential election this year will be a “contingent election,” in which no candidate gets the requisite 270 Electoral College votes. The president would be chosen by the House and the vice president by the Senate. Using 2020 results as a baseline, all it would take would be for Trump to make it a tie by getting 37 Electoral College votes flipping Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, the three narrowest margins for Biden in 2020 with at most 10,341 votes. Then both candidates would have only 269 Electoral College votes. Or a No Labels Unity Ticket could take those states, again throwing the election to the House. Wallace took 46 Electoral College votes in 1968, so it can be done. A combination of Trump flips and Unity Ticket wins could do it, provided Biden is deprived of 37 votes and Trump doesn’t get more than 37. The House will be narrowly divided in 2025, with likely 26 GOP state delegations, making Biden unelectable. Trump likely is also unelectable, but a Unity candidate could draw votes from both parties. A president could be elected who had carried just one state. The Senate will have a Republican majority, making Harris unelectable. This easily rules out one-party rule by Democrats, which we believe is the worst-case economic policy outcome. It will feel like chaos, but with the worst-case ruled out, it will be a buying opportunity.