On the February Jobs Report

A big payroll beat, but it was facilitated by sharp downward revisions, especially to January's too-good-to-be-true blockbuster. The unemployment rate rose as employment in the household survey fell. Our model based on eight contemporaneous labor market indicators confirms the payroll number, not the household number. Average hourly earnings growth was sharply lower, the lowest in two years, and last month's scorcher was revised slightly lower. This is a very Fed-friendly report.