“Advance” estimates ahead of presidential elections tend to be revised sharply lower.
Donald L. Luskin
Let’s Talk About Something Other than the Election
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Sure. How about: if the election doesn’t cause a recession, will there still be one in 2017?
Elections Have Consequences
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Maybe not “rigged,” but brutal and corrupt. It will erode confidence and create instability.
If – When? – Hillary Wins
Monday, October 10, 2016
Have markets stopped worrying about Trump, only to start worrying about Clinton?
On the September Jobs Report
Friday, October 7, 2016
More proof of slack in the labor market – but Yellen isn’t likely to be confused by such facts.
On OPEC’s Production Target
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Freezing production that was frozen anyway makes the US fracker the swing producer.
On the First Presidential Debate
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Front-runner Clinton wins this tie. It’s not over: remember Romney’s first debate win in 2012.
On the September FOMC and BOJ
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
The FOMC didn’t “blow itself up,” but threatens to in December. The BOJ seeks overshoot.
Gundlach and Load
Monday, September 12, 2016
Friday was a warning shot for the Fed: you’re near an invisible tripwire connected to recession.
On the August Jobs Report
Friday, September 2, 2016
This wasn’t Yellen’s “solid performance” – yet fears of a September hike just won’t die.