On the April Jobs Report
The seeming paradox of a strong labor market standing alone amidst generally declining macro data has been partially resolved with this morning’s big payroll miss and downward revisions. In fact job growth has been weak for the prior two quarters, and this new more visible weakness just confirms that sticky labor markets tend to lag. This is not, then, new negative information. With oil having double-bottomed, the mini-recession caused by too-low oil processes is over. And today’s numbers only help get the Fed unstuck from stupid – essentially ruling out another rate hike this year, as we’ve been saying all along.