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ARCHIVES: TREND MACROLYTICS REPORTS
Lorcan Roche Kelly

MACROCOSM
No Pain, No Ukraine
April 15, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

Almost a war now, but no escalating sanctions.  Why would Europe suffer for a failed state?

 MACROCOSM
Why Putin is Smarter than Stalin…
March 26, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

…and Merkel is smarter than Hitler. Both have learned from historical necessity.

MACROCOSM
Crimea Doesn't Pay
March 11, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

Europe might appease Russia -- is it just too expensive to fight a sanctions-war?

MACROCOSM
Renzinomics Renaissance
February 20, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

Once more with feeling: an unelected prime minister brings supply-side reforms to Italy. 

MACROCOSM
When PIIGS Fly
February 10, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

They're the best performers in 2014, despite assaults from emerging markets and Germany.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB January Policy Decision
January 9, 2014
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

Euro area inflation is far below the ECB's target -- but why take any risk to fix it?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November ECB Policy Decision
November 7, 2013
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

With QE ruled out, the ECB has pretty much fired all its bullets. The euro area is on its own.

MACROCOSM
Europe's Ghosts of Stress Tests Past
October 22, 2013
Donald Luskin with research input from Lorcan Roche Kelly

A risk-off spasm over ECB bank tests ignores the euro area's quantum turnaround.

MACROCOSM
Red Letta Day
September 30, 2013
Deja vu in Italy, time for something new at the ECB.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the German Election
September 23, 2013
So much for "bailout fatigue." The German electorate vindicates Merkel's euro strategy.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September ECB Policy Decision
September 5, 2013
No rate change, no new guidance, no ideas -- Draghi lives up to low expectations. 

MACROCOSM
Germany Votes
August 13, 2013
Euro-skeptics wrong again. In September's election, there's no alternative for Deutschland.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August ECB Policy Decision
August 1, 2013
What a difference a year makes. The ECB has earned the luxury of being boring.

MACROCOSM
ECB's Operation Twist-and-Nudge
July 19, 2013
New collateral rules push ABS onto the balance sheet instead of sovereigns.

MACROCOSM
SpanDax
July 12, 2013
Spanish bonds and German stocks are best for a summer of euro area muddle-through.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July ECB and BOE Policy Decisions
July 4, 2013
The BOE provides forward forward guidance, and the ECB provides no guidance guidance.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the EU Bank Resolution Agreement
June 27, 2013
EU ministers reach agreement on bank resolution. And yes, Cyprus was a template.

MACROCOSM
Bundesblock
June 19, 2013
Until the German elections, Bundesbank political leverage keeps euro area growth on hold.

MACROCOSM
On the June ECB Policy Decision
June 6, 2013
Draghi risks recovery, and his reputation, by not actually doing "whatever it takes."

MACROCOSM
Not a Big Bang, But It Could Work
May 29, 2013
Business credit languishes in the euro area, but there's a better solution than negative rates.

MACROCOSM
ECB: It Takes Whatever
May 22, 2013
The euro sovereign carry trade turns out to be a myth. SME credit is where the pressure is.

MACROCOSM
Restructuring Austerity
May 9, 2013
The "end to austerity" in Europe does not mean the end to structural reforms (or austerity).

MACROCOSM
On the May ECB Policy Decision
May 2, 2013
A mostly meaningless rate cut -- but a strong new liquidity program and break for ELA.

MACROCOSM
Draghi's Troika of Troubles, Volume 2
April 30, 2013
Draghi can either cut rates Thursday -- or do something that might actually help.

MACROCOSM
Gold Crash: The Cypriot Connection
April 17, 2013
Cyprus may sell its small gold hoard, but it's unique -- other euro area nations can't and won't.

MACROCOSM
The EIB, Not the ECB
April 12, 2013
Don't laugh: the ECB wants a credit program for Greece to become the euro area template.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On The April ECB Policy Meeting
April 4, 2013
Lorcan Roche Kelly

No optimism, no rate cut, and no new solutions beyond a commitment to act -- somehow.

MACROCOSM
Draghi's Troika of Troubles
April 3, 2013
"Structural Operations" could fix disinflation, too-slow money growth, and fragmentation.

MACROCOSM
Dubious Timing, Obvious Truth
March 28, 2013
No more euro area bank bail-outs allowed -- but most banks have been bailed out already.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB's Move Against Cyprus
March 21, 2013
Cypriot hardball is met with ECB hardball. It's the ECB's ball, but still a threat to the euro.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Cypriot Depositor Bail-in
March 17, 2013
Making depositors take a hair-cut is a risky precedent for the world's most fiat currency. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On The March ECB Policy Decisions
March 7, 2013
The ECB hints at a rate cut -- but admits it would be ineffective. It probably won't happen.

MACROCOSM
Italy Gets Hung
February 26, 2013
An uprising of populism is a blow to Italy's growth, but not an existential threat to the euro.

MACROCOSM
Elezione!
February 14, 2013
Italy's byzantine election laws sow uncertainty. Berlusconi is a tail risk, but not a fat one.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On The February ECB Policy Decision
February 7, 2013
Markets now see the ECB is still highly accommodative, and Ireland's ELA comes to an end.

MACROCOSM
Correction, Not Crisis
February 4, 2013
Politics and policy have paused Europe's rally -- but this is not a return to the bad old days.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On The First LTRO Payback
January 25, 2013
Banks are set to repay €137bn of LTRO. Don't worry -- this is not ECB tightening.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Cameron's EU Speech
January 23, 2013
Lorcan Roche Kelly

A referendum that won't happen on treaty changes that won't be made.

MACROCOSM
UK: In or Out?
January 17, 2013
It's the ideal moment to join the euro, but Cameron will choose isolation over integration.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January ECB Policy Decision
January 10, 2013
No change, as Draghi points to "positive contagion" in the euro area.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Basel III Rule Change
January 7, 2013
Four more years, and lower liquidity standards: risk to EA bank profits wanes.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Monti's Resignation
December 10, 2012
He's not conceding to Berlusconi -- he's depriving him of political momentum.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December ECB Policy Decision
December 6, 2012
Projections for negative growth and below-target inflation make a rate cut a certainty.

MACROCOSM
Greece, Done At Last?
November 27, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

Greece comes off the threat-board as the can gets a very hard kick down the road.

MACROCOSM
Calm Becomes Complacency
November 21, 2012
The heat is off, and reform slows to a crawl. Has Draghi done his job too well?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November ECB Policy Decision
November 8, 2012
Draghi shows he can do politics as brilliantly as he can do monetary policy.

MACROCOSM
Calm Breaks Out in Europe
October 31, 2012
Peripheral sovereign debt shifts from speculative opportunity to total return play.

MACROCOSM
The Phony Bailout
October 12, 2012
The ESM is up and running. The ECB is ready with OMT. So where's the bailout?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October ECB Policy Decision
October 4, 2012
No rate cut, no new policies. Beneath the headlines, the approach to bailouts is changing.

MACROCOSM
Bring in the Noise
September 26, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

After two months of calm, euro area politics are back with a bang.

MACROCOSM
Europe Beyond Draghi's Promised Land
September 13, 2012
The ECB delivered, and the German court didn't interfere. But the euro crisis isn't over.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the September ECB Policy Decision
September 6, 2012
Draghi delivers.

MACROCOSM
Exceptional Measures
August 29, 2012
The ECB won't disappoint next week -- and there's still room on the upside.

MACROCOSM
The August before the Fall?
August 20, 2012
It's Europe's best August since forever. But what happens when the politicians come back?

MACROCOSM
Draghi: Off the Reservation
August 3, 2012
All is not lost: what little the ECB did yesterday was enough to make the Bundesbank dissent.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Draghi in London
July 26, 2012
The ECB chief responds to our critique -- but this is crisis response, not true easing.

MACROCOSM
Mario Canute
July 25, 2012
Europe needs time for pro-growth reforms to work -- instead, it has a too-tight central bank.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Eurogroup and Draghi in Parliament
July 10, 2012
Slightly more clarity on Spain's bank bailout, and a possible dovish turn for the ECB's Draghi.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Central Bank Coordinated Action
July 5, 2012
The BOE, PBOC and ECB show how far marginal returns on central bank action have fallen.

POLITICAL PULSE
For Europe, It's the Politics, Stupid
June 27, 2012
Can a clear path to a United States of Europe be coming, with no clarity on Spain's bailout?

MACROCOSM
Εκλογη
June 15, 2012
Short-term risks from the Greek election are much smaller than markets seem to think.

MACROCOSM
I Love the Smell of Bailouts in the Morning
June 11, 2012
For Spain and Spain's banks, it smells like victory. But any rally will be fragile.

MACROCOSM
Nein! Well, Maybe
May 29, 2012
Germany is softening its stance to keep its place at the head of Europe's table.

MACROCOSM
What's Greek for "Groundhog Day"?
May 15, 2012
Failure to form a Greek government means another election, more volatility, more tail-risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the French and Greek Elections
May 7, 2012
The Greek dog is barking again -- but the euro area caravan will move on.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May ECB Rate Decision
May 3, 2012
Mario Draghi gives a supply-side economics lesson to euro area leaders.

MACROCOSM
S&P Sp BBB = ECB SMP?
April 27, 2012
Spain: ratings down, unemployment up. But this is no crisis, and the ECB won't act.

POLITICAL PULSE
A French Election Correction
April 23, 2012
Whether with Hollande or Sarkozy, France will support European integration and reform.

MACROCOSM
A Spaniard in the Works
April 11, 2012
Spanish fears take the forefront, but it's just part of Europe's painful equilibrium. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April ECB Rate Decision
April 4, 2012
The ECB stands pat -- apparently markets will just have to wait to see if LTRO worked.

MACROCOSM
Crunch Time for Reform in Europe
March 28, 2012
The honeymoon is ending for Monti and Rajoy, as labor reforms get politically difficult.

MACROCOSM
Spanish Flu?
March 16, 2012
Spain is Europe's post-crisis laggard. If reform is sustained, it can catch up.

MACROCOSM
Unquestionable Success?
March 9, 2012
The worst thing that can happen to Europe now is that everything goes perfectly.

MACROCOSM
How Big was the LTRO, Really?
March 5, 2012
Size matters -- but for central bank liquidity, quality means as much as quantity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Second 3-year LTRO
February 29, 2012
It's official: euro area banks won't be Lehman. Now can they be more than zombies?

MACROCOSM
LTROphoria
February 27, 2012
3-year LTRO's now a rock star. Wednesday's auction is the difficult second album.

MACROCOSM
Greece is Saved! (Again...)
February 21, 2012
Another version of another bail-out. Fortunately, we don't have to care anymore.

MACROCOSM
Greece Re-Re-Revisited
February 13, 2012
If Greece could export uncertainty, it would be the richest country in the world. 

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB and BOE February Rate Decisions
February 9, 2012
Now it's up to Europe's banks to bet on themselves with a huge LTRO uptake at month-end.

POLITICAL PULSE
The French Election Connection
February 7, 2012
France elects a new president on May 6. Here's everything markets need to know.

MACROCOSM
S&P Reprise Reprieve
January 17, 2012
Europe's downgrade was an already discounted non-event -- but all the old issues remain.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January ECB Rate Decision
January 12, 2012
The ECB has done enough for the moment -- and maybe enough for the banks. 

MACROCOSM
Le Collateral
January 6, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

Altruism or desperation? French banks just listed 8,067 new instruments with the ECB.

MACROCOSM
Europe's Wall of Liquidity
December 21, 2011
The risk of a Lehman-like banking crisis for Europe is essentially off the table now.

MACROCOSM
E Pluribus 26
December 12, 2011
It could only happen in Europe -- a summit that strengthens integration loses the UK.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB Monetary Policy Decisions
December 8, 2011
The ECB met expectations, but dashed hopes. But spillovers may mean de facto Fed QE3.

MACROCOSM
Saved by an Acronym
November 30, 2011
Europe's alphabet soup is getting cold. But there's a new recipe cooking.

MACROCOSM
Europe's New Lenders of Last Resort
November 29, 2011
Three more national central banks now engage in Emergency Liquidity Assistance.

MACROCOSM
QE Nein
November 23, 2011
Europe's long-term vision needs a short-term ECB lifeline -- but prejudice and politics block it.

MACROCOSM
Rome Makes Athens Look Good
November 10, 2011
Greece moves along the road to political stability, and Italy grudgingly steps onto it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November ECB Rate Decision
November 3, 2011
Draghi starts to unwind Trichet's errors, and keeps Europe's debt safety net in place.

MACROCOSM
Papandemonium!
November 3, 2011
The Euro area calls Papandreou's referendum bluff. There are limits to debtor's leverage.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Greek Referendum Surprise, Volume 2
November 2, 2011
Markets will flail until Europe passes the biggest test yet of its muddle through crisis strategy.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Greek Referendum Surprise
November 1, 2011
Deja vu for world markets -- Greece ups the ante of panic once again.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Europe Summit
October 27, 2011
A 50% Greek default -- and the only contagion is a celebration in global stock markets.

MACROCOSM
Agree to Agree... on Wednesday
October 24, 2011
Europe fired blanks at the weekend's summit. One more chance for a real shootout.

MACROCOSM
Six Days to What?
October 17, 2011
A resolution to the Greek crisis is a key coming catalyst, but Europe's woes will remain.

MACROCOSM
Stress Test for Europe's Banks, and Its Politics
October 11, 2011
Dexia's failure clarifies Europe's mind on banks -- now we wait for Slovakia's EFSF vote.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On ECB and BOE October Rate Decisions
October 6, 2011
Massive QE for the UK, and continued growth-killing rates for the Euro area.

MACROCOSM
Europe Fails, US Stocks Flail
October 4, 2011
The stench of systemic risk from Europe drives stocks to generational value levels

MACROCOSM
Greece: Down to the Wire
September 20, 2011
It's hard bargaining as usual, but default will be deferred until the new EFSF is ready to go.

MACROCOSM
Too Few Good Men
September 9, 2011
Trichet almost admits his mistake, Obama repeats his, and Bernanke maintains course.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the German Court EFSF Decision
September 7, 2011
The critical bailout tool survives constitutional challenge with only minor damage.

MACROCOSM
CHooF!
September 6, 2011
The Swiss must expect more euro weakness -- whether or not political solutions are found.

MACROCOSM
From the Vacation to the Frying Pan
August 30, 2011
The second Greek bailout flounders, and politics puts the new EFSF at risk.

MACROCOSM
Two-Tier Europe is Born
August 17, 2011
Merkel and Sarkozy have re-imagined the Euro area, and a stable solution to crisis.

MACROCOSM
New Battle, Old Weapons?
August 12, 2011
Europe bans short-selling again, but that does not mean a repeat of 2008.

MACROCOSM
Europe, Living on the Edge
August 1, 2011
The ECB is paralyzed, the EFSF is sidelined, and tiny Cyprus reveals the system's fragility.

MACROCOSM
Whatever It Takes
July 22, 2011
It's default for Greece, yet the Euro authorities have successfully arrested contagion.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Understanding ELA: Emergency Liquidity Assistance
July 15, 2011
How the ECB lets national central banks of the Eurosystem do the dirty work.

MACROCOSM
The Sack of Rome
July 13, 2011
Europe stumbles into a speculative attack on the biggest of the PIIGS -- and survives.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Europe's July Rate Decisions
July 7, 2011
The new contagion? Inflation monomania drives the core to impose risks on the periphery.

MACROCOSM
Dependence Day
July 5, 2011
Over the weekend, as the US celebrates independence, Greece falls under EU stewardship.

MACROCOSM
Confidence Game in Greece
June 23, 2011
Papandreou wins his confidence vote -- but there's no confidence Greece won't still default.

MACROCOSM
Black Wednesday in Greece
June 16, 2011
With government in chaos, the next step is a bank run -- then default.

MACROCOSM
Greece: Suicide, Not Murder
June 7, 2011
Ironically, a Greek default may strengthen the rest of the Eurozone.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June ECB Rate Decision
June 9, 2011
Trichet is poised to compound the ECB's suicidal policy error with a July rate hike.

Copyright 2001 through 2014 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
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