ARCHIVES: TREND MACROLYTICS REPORTS
Gold's Most Immemorial Year
November 19, 2009
What 1979 can teach us about gold,
inflation and the Fed.
November 9, 2009
The economy can't grow without the
small business sector -- and it's hardly recovering.
Whose Dollar Is It,
October 23, 2009
The world fumes while Geithner says
it's Bernanke's problem and Bernanke says its Congress's problem
October 16, 2009
With VC funding and IPOs still
depressed, the growth engine is likely to sputter.
Can the Emerging Markets
Keep It Up?
September 30, 2009
To control inflation, they may have
to choose between high rates and rising currencies.
September 23, 2009
It's ironic -- the carry trade that
makes Treasuries look great now is what will make them big losers.
September 11, 2009
Greenspan belatedly returns to the
gold standard, but the Bernanke Fed isn't following.
September 3, 2009
The data is already showing a
sub-par recovery from recession.
August 26, 2009
For good or for ill, the Fed's
ultra-easy policy stance has a new lease on life.
Signs of Life in the CMBS
August 20, 2009
TALF arbitrage should end a vicious
cycle of frozen markets and falling property values.
Q2 Marked the
July 31, 2009
Seemingly unthinkable so recently,
the economy managed to pull back from the abyss.
Check the Exit
July 22, 2009
Bernanke's vision for ending the
Fed's hyper-accommodation is all tools and no timing.
A Run on the Fed?
July 10, 2009
The Fed is losing the short-term
financing for its long-term liabilities.
Steady -- And Easy -- As She Goes
June 25, 2009
The Fed's abandonment of its
deflation worries changes almost nothing.
Strong Enough, Thank You
June 15, 2009
Emerging markets currencies are
re-linking to the dollar -- and that way lies inflation.
On the May Jobs
June 5, 2009
Slowing job losses don't mean the
Fed will get on the job of inflation fighting.
Thrown A Curve
June 1, 2009
A record 2-10 Treasury spread
shouts "inflation," but the Fed can't hear it.
Constructive Currency Signals
May 18, 2009
As in 2003-2004, emerging market
forex indicates there are more than enough dollars.
Stress Test for
May 8, 2009
How high will the 10-year yield go before Bernanke slaps it down?
Fed Says, Give Us Some Slack
May 6, 2009
Bernanke thinks the economy has
turned the corner -- all the worse for inflation risk.
The Fed, Blinded by the Obvious
April 30, 2009
Of course the economy has improved
slightly -- but the Fed remains bent on inflation.
Sorting Out the Spreads
April 27, 2009
High yield spreads say the worst is over, but they're not yet fully
International Funny Money Fund
April 17, 2009
SDRs are inflationary helicopter money, and IMF aid does more harm than
Transmission Not Broken
March 31, 2009
Inflation can take hold even in a
sluggish and credit-impaired economy.
Taking It Up A Notch
March 27, 2009
TALF 2.0 makes the Fed's balance
sheet both bigger and stickier.
March 17, 2009
Changing Chinese demand for
Treasuries impacts both the bond market and inflation.
TALF -- The Fed
Gets One Right
March 6, 2009
The Fed is making the
securitization market an offer it can't refuse.
We Can Build on
This -- But How High?
February 27, 2009
They won't let the world end. But
today's anti-growth politics limit the upside.
Treasury Won't Bail Out
February 17, 2009
Their obscure partnership won't
keep the Fed from having to inflate our way out of crisis.
The Dollar: The Tallest Pygmy
February 5, 2009
If the dollar is so strong, why is
gold even stronger?
Got You Covered
January 23, 2009
The worst trouble-spot in the US
credit infrastructure is finally being addressed.
Treasuries: Too Late to Buy, But Too Early to Sell
January 16, 2009
The Fed's going to hold the whole curve down for quite a while... but
then, look out.
Peeking Out of the Bunker
January 12, 2009
Lagging macro news is horrible, and
may be for a while -- but risk-tolerance is coming back.
Signs of Life
December 30, 2008
With the Fed maximally easy now,
risk tolerance gradually returns to credit markets.
Deflation and Inflation: A Delicate Balance
December 19, 2008
Deflation-fighting is the Fed's Job
One now -- unfortunately its best weapon is inflation.
History-Making, But Irrelevant
December 15, 2008
Tomorrow's likely record low funds
rate has little to do with how the Fed now operates.
Feeding Frenzy in Treasuries
December 2, 2008
Safe haven or mo-mo trade, at this point it offers little potential
upside and much risk.
It's a Recession -- Not the End of the World
November 21, 2008
Non-investment grade bonds are
pricing for default rates that aren't going to happen.
Vicious Cycle Visions
November 10, 2008
This recession will end like they all do -- when risk premia coax capital
back to work.
November 6, 2008
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury
is still being fought.
November 4, 2008
The worst is over for the emerging
markets, but the road to recovery will be rocky.
1% and So What?
October 29, 2008
The funds rate has been trading
below 1% for weeks, and the Fed has moved beyond rate-targeting anyway.
The Fear Trade
October 24, 2008
Fear got us into recession, and
fear is going to keep us from getting out of it.
Regime Change at the Fed
October 14, 2008
Interest on reserves could either
accelerate or prevent inflation -- it depends on how the Fed handles
this powerful new tool.
I Knew Japan -- You Are No Japan
October 2, 2008
With the Fed ultra-easy, there's no
way the US is going down Japan's deflationary road.
Fear Itself, Volume 2
September 23, 2008
Even the most aggressive rescue
plan isn't likely to avert recession at this point.
How Tough is Ben's Tough Love?
September 16, 2008
The Fed has eschewed bailouts. Can
the FOMC resist a pointless rate-cut today?
September 8, 2008
The takeover heals
near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.
Perception, Election, Reality and Risk
September 5, 2008
Bleak sentiment is way overblown --
but some real risks are getting closer and closer.
Deflation? Surely You're Joking
August 21, 2008
Inflation pressures are still
intense, despite falling commodities and slower growth.
Dollar/Euro, Fed/ECB, Gold/Oil: Keeping It All Straight
August 11, 2008
Apparent dollar strength is likely
a trading aberration, not a sustainable trend.
What Did They Do To Deserve This?
August 5, 2008
First we exported our inflation to
the emerging markets. Now are we hoping to import their rate-hikes?
July 24, 2008
In a showdown between
the dovish Fed governors and the hawkish regional presidents, the
Fannie and Freddie Fan
July 11, 2008
The scariest consequence of the GSE
panic is renewed risk of a worst-case inflation scenario.
July 3, 2008
The ECB challenges the Fed to clean up its own inflationary mess.
Bonds Wish, Stocks Worry
June 26, 2008
Markets are wrong if they believe that yesterday's FOMC statement puts
the Fed on hold.
Hikes Are Coming, and Not
a Moment Too Soon
June 19, 2008
Despite the chatter, an improving
economy and rising inflation point to a higher funds rate.
This is the Turn
June 11, 2008
In a matter of days, Fed
expectations have shifted 180 degrees -- to the right direction.
The Bernanke Awakening
June 5, 2008
The Fed chief's dollar talk is not
just talk. It's a call to action.
Facing the Music
May 29, 2008
The Fed will soon have no choice but to deal with rising inflation, and
bonds aren't ready.
May 7, 2008
Things will have to get a lot worse for this
to be a recession. And they're likely to get better.
April 29, 2008
Tomorrow the Fed will pause -- but an end to the easing cycle would be
Fed vs ECB -- the ECB Wins
April 23, 2008
The euro's run may be ending as the
Fed starts acting more like the ECB.
It Doesn't Look As Bad Now
As it Did Then
April 10, 2008
Don't read too much into minutes of an FOMC meeting held the day after
the end of the world.
Weak Jobs Today, Better
April 4, 2008
It's still a slowdown, not a recession -- but whatever it is, it's almost
Inflation: Not the Worst
Case, But Still a Case
March 26, 2008
The Fed isn't going to be as easy as it once seemed, but it's still
Emerging Markets, Emerging
March 13, 2008
US inflation shows up first in the developing world, and then it comes
home to roost.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
The Fed's statements about
inflation expectations are not anchored to reality.
"No Quandary Here"?
February 21, 2008
The Fed has a bogus rationale for sacrificing price stability on the
altar of easy money.
A Stronger Dollar? Don't Be Fooled
February 12, 2008
The ECB is poised for excessive ease, weakening the euro but not
strengthening the dollar.
Something For Everyone
February 4, 2008
Recent data supports both optimism
and pessimism, but we're still on the upbeat side.
Don't Be Surprised If Data Surprises
January 28, 2008
The Fed won't dare disappoint rate cut expectations. But data could
change the long-term game.
Soft Spot, Not
January 17, 2008
Look carefully at the numbers: the
data just doesn't support the end-of-the-world thesis.
January 11, 2008
The more Bernanke gives, the more
the markets want -- and the more money gets dropped.
January 3, 2008
The Fed is worried -- but only
about credit markets, not inflation.
A Dollar Bottom?
December 20, 2007
Not until the Fed takes inflation
more seriously than it does the turmoil in credit markets.
December 12, 2007
The Fed is trying to help, but its
clumsiness is undermining confidence rather than enhancing it.
The Fed In a Box
November 29, 2007
What can the Fed do when markets
and the media expect Armageddon -- but there's no evidence for it?
November 16, 2007
The Fed is helping the economy talk
itself into a slow patch.
Fed Liquidity Runneth Over
November 7, 2007
A new conundrum: the Fed is
injecting record liquidity, yet the funds rate is trading below target.
Hawk on the Outside, Dove on the Inside
November 1, 2007
Yesterday's FOMC disappointed the
doves, but the Fed remains tilted toward ease.
The Unloved Buck
October 23, 2007
With the Fed bowing to recession
fears and market expectations, the dollar is collateral damage.
Enough Recovery for the
October 12, 2007
Credit markets have stabilized,
which may be enough to give the Fed pause before cutting rates again.
Fed in the Crosshairs
October 5, 2007
The first rule of central banking
is: never admit you made a mistake. That means another rate cut at the
October FOMC meeting.
It's Not Just a
River in Egypt
September 28, 2007
For the Fed, it's "jobs, jobs, jobs" -- and inflation is a matter of deep
The Fed Gets the
September 19, 2007
The Fed caves in to panic, and inflation risk kicks into high gear.
Did Somebody Say
September 13, 2007
No, nobody did. Nobody but the Treasury curve, that is.
September 7, 2007
Let us be the last to say so -- the
Fed will cut rates on September 18. But that doesn't mean recession, or
a prolonged easing cycle, is around the corner.
Don't Count Your
August 30, 2007
Despite a seemingly overwhelming consensus, it's still too early to take
rate cuts for granted.
Easy Does It
August 23, 2007
For the Fed, easing the market's pain means not easing policy.
August 17, 2007
The Fed cleverly addressed the
needs of beleaguered markets, without launching new helicopter drops of
money on the broad economy.
On Fed Open Market Operations
August 10, 2007
The Fed Gets it Right
August 8, 2007
Thankfully no pandering to
panic-mongers, but rates likely stuck on hold now until 2008.
Bernanke Won't Hit the
August 6, 2007
Monetary liquidity is already
plentiful, and the normalization of the price of credit risk doesn't
Fever of Fear
July 26, 2007
It's not the end of the world. But the price of risk-bearing has gone up
-- to normal levels.
July 13, 2007
The fall of the dollar to 15-year lows isn't because there are too many
subprime defaults -- it's because there are too many dollars.
June 29, 2007
The Fed needs more proof that
inflation has been tamed Ė and arbitrary core readings arenít it.
June 18, 2007
The bear move in bonds has been
about growth, not inflation. Bond bulls should brace for more bad news
on both fronts.
When Doves Cry
June 8, 2007
Bill Gross brings up
the rear of the capitulation parade. But it's just beginning -- bonds
will have to brace for Fed rate hikes.
On Jobs, ISM, GDP Data
June 1, 2007
May 29, 2007
For four years, this expansion got
no respect. What happens to stocks when it finally does?
Signals and Noises
May 17, 2007
Bond bulls are pummeled by evidence
of reaccelerating growth, and grasp at statistical straws of supposedly
Retail No Relief for Economic Bears
May 11, 2007
Bonds have realized that the Fed
isn't watching retails sales -- it's watching jobs.
Growth Returns in the Spring
May 3, 2007
After a dreary winter, the economic bears may have to stay in
April 27, 2007
There's still no evidence whatsoever
of housing contagion, and lots more evidence of inflation.
April 18, 2007
Bonds bulls will seize on anything -- even inflation statistics distorted
by NCAA basketball.
Of Two Minds
April 12, 2007
Bernanke used to think low
inflation was consistent with steady growth -- now it seems he can't
decide between them.
A Haven From What?
April 5, 2007
Don't worry about Ahmadinejad.
Worry about Bernanke.
Both Sides Now
March 28, 2007
Bernanke makes it crystal clear
there are risks to both growth and inflation -- leaving inflation
On Second ThoughtÖ
March 23, 2007
After Wednesday's knee-jerk
reaction to the FOMC statement, a clearer appraisal.
What Would Say Say?
March 15, 2007
We're certain the 19th century
economic prophet would be unperturbed by the current panic in subprime
March 7, 2007
The market price of risk isn't zero
anymore -- that's no threat to growth.
March 1, 2007
Solid growth statistics trump the
long-expected closing of Japan's free money spigot.
February 22, 2007
The Fed is being put on the spot to
show it's not all talk.
On Bernanke's Testimony
February 14, 2007
February 12, 2007
Bernanke's testimony this week
should end all doubt that the next Fed move is to higher rates.
On GDP and FOMC
January 31, 2007
Keeping the Cheering Down
January 29, 2007
The Fed's been wrong about the slowing economy -- but they're unlikely to
admit it at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
Hoping Against Hope
January 19, 2007
Bond bulls cling to the instinct to
buy on dips, but sentiment is beginning to change.
Commodities: Don't Be Fooled
January 12, 2007
The recent drop in commodities
prices isn't an all clear signal for inflation, or for bond yields.
New Year, New Day?
January 4, 2007
But the Fed keeps the same hawkish
bias, and bond markets still won't listen.
December 21, 2006
While the bond market denies US
inflation, for Thailand itís an all too familiar contagion.
On November CPI
December 15, 2006
Wishful Thinking Has Its Limits
December 13, 2006
Good economic news and a steady Fed
will inexorably grind down the bond bulls.
November 29, 2006
The bond market is ignoring Bernankeís
hawkish protestations, because for now itís nothing but talk.
Inflation Mission Accomplished? Not So Fast
November 20, 2006
Seeming downticks in reported
inflation are just counter-trend blips in a continuing uptrend.
We Won't Get Fooled Again?
November 6, 2006
The Fed admits its mistake about
deflation in 2003 -- now it's the same mistake, but about inflation.
Better Than It
October 30, 2006
Third quarter reported growth was dragged down by isolated factors likely
not to repeat -- the expansion is still very much intact.
Fed Marking Time
October 26, 2006
The FOMC fiddles while inflation burns -- and bonds applaud.
October 20, 2006
An unexpectedly strong economy is set to disappoint the bond market on
October 11, 2006
Bonds are rethinking the economy and the Fed. Next for rethinking:
Hoping Against Hope
October 5, 2006
The Fed is starting to aim tough talk at the bond market -- will the bond
Racing to the Cliff's Edge
September 21, 2006
Now more than ever, bonds are riding for a fall -- the economy isn't
weakening and the Fed's not going to ease.
September 15, 2006
Renewed conviction that inflation is dead hangs on a thread less than a
hundredth of a percent thick.
September 5, 2006
Bond bulls are in the money -- but it's based on dreams, and reality is
on the way.
Update to Our US Bond Forecast
August 25, 2006
Bonds are very vulnerable: they're
tracking Fed rhetoric, not reality.
August 16, 2006
The Fed will spin this week's numbers to stay sidelined, but a closer
look reveals continued growth and inflation.
Surprise on the
August 9, 2006
The Fed dug itself deeper in inflation denial yesterday, which raises the
price the economy will have to pay tomorrow.
March to Folly
August 4, 2006
Today's job number seals the deal: the Fed is headed for a major error.
July 27, 2006
Tomorrow's GDP report isn't likely to give Bernanke the excuse to stop
the rate hikes.
Bernanke on the Hill
July 20, 2006
The Fed chief
may hope the data will allow the rate hikes to stop, but there's one more
The Middle East, Oil, Gold and
July 14, 2006
Geopolitical tensions are only
adding insult to injury. The real risk is in monetary policy.
On the June Employment Report
July 7, 2006
June 30, 2006
The FOMC wants it both ways on growth and inflation -- but its
ambivalence puts both at risk.
The Housing Cool-off In Perspective
June 22, 2006
A strong economy will keep the housing sector and the consumer from
The Hawk Has Landed
June 16, 2006
We can finally see the end of this
rate-hiking cycle -- in time to address inflation risk without damage to
June 6, 2006
An inflation-aware Fed will do the right thing for the right reason -- but
still may get it wrong.
Right Thing, Wrong Reason?
June 1, 2006
The Fed gets it right again -- by accident. But the risk of major error is
Here We Go Again
May 23, 2006
Bonds are making yet another bad bet that the economy is slowing, and that
the Fed is done.
Coming Home to
May 18, 2006
New inflation awareness means that the Fed can
do more sooner, and avoid doing too much later.
On the FOMC Meeting
May 10, 2006
May 3, 2006
Will the blowback from Bernanke's pause talk
keep the Fed from damaging its credibility?
On April Jobs
May 5, 2006
April 27, 2006
Another Reality Check
April 26, 2006
The market has reversed last week's false hopes,
but it's still underestimating the extent of Fed action.
Sorry -- Still
Not Done Yet
April 20, 2006
The Fed is still data-dependent, and all the data points to more rate
How Much More?
April 13, 2006
The equilibrium interest rate has moved higher
-- so the Fed has much further to go than the market expects.
Gold, the Dollar, and the Fed
April 3, 2006
Gold may be caught up in a commodity boom, but
it's also saying the Fed is still accommodative.
On the FOMC Meeting
March 28, 2006
March 21, 2006
Bernanke plumbs the yield curve's mysteries, but
his economic outlook is clear -- and bad for bonds.
March 10, 2006
The big move down in bonds reflects both
shifting Fed expectations and growing inflation worries.
March 2, 2006
It's good that there's nothing restrictive about
a 5% funds rate -- because the Fed is going even higher.
"Savings" vs. Wealth
February 22, 2006
Savings, in decline for two decades, is a sign
of risk aversion. Wealth, at all time highs, is a sign of growth.
On Bernanke's Testimony
February 15, 2006
Return of the Long Bond
February 10, 2006
The 30-year gives bond investors a new way to mis-play
the inverted yield curve.
On the January Jobs Report
February 3, 2006
On the FOMC Meeting
January 31, 2006
January 24, 2006
Greenspan's successors will have to live with a
legacy of inflationary risk.
January 19, 2006
The pessimists have been wrong all along, and
they're still wrong.
Grasping At Straws
January 12, 2006
The rationales coming from the inflation doves
don't hold up.
January 3, 2006
Inverted yield curves don't cause recessions --
and this one isn't signaling one, either.
Different This Time?
December 22, 2005
Nope. Indeed, gold may be signaling the first
synchronized global inflation event in over two decades.
Time for Change?
December 9, 2005
The Fed might be approaching neutrality, but
that doesn't mean it's done.
December 1, 2005
This expansion remains robust -- and its
detractors are focusing on every risk except the relevant ones.
Gold at $490
November 22, 2005
Fears that a new Fed chair will let inflation
break out here are overdone.
Core Inflation Not as Low as
November 16, 2005
Statistical artifacts are holding
down reported inflation. Soon those same artifacts will boost it.
Job Market Myth vs. Reality
November 7, 2005
Jobs numbers can't prop up bonds --
but they may inspire the Fed to overshoot.
November 1, 2005
The risk in a new Bernanke Fed is
overshooting in the direction of tightness.
Bernanke Takes the Helm: Critical
October 25, 2005
Inside the mind of the new Fed
chair -- for better, and for worse.
October 17, 2005
The Fed fooled bonds by treating
high energy prices as inflationary, not contractionary.
October 10, 2005
High energy prices are unlikely to
derail an expansion based on wealth creation and capital formation.
Full Circle, and More
October 3, 2005
Fed rate hike expectations are
above pre-Katrina levels -- so why is gold so high?
Neither Rain Nor Gloom
September 23, 2005
Bond markets are only beginning to
see that the Fed's normalization course will not be deterred.
Cat Out of the Bag?
September 19, 2005
Gold's inflation warning is too
obvious for even the post-Katrina Fed to miss.
September 12, 2005
Bonds are captured by "money
illusion" -- but the Fed is unlikely to play along.
Katrina and the Fed
September 2, 2005
Expectations that the Gulf Coast
disaster will deter the Fed are all wet.
Housing Bubble Bunkum
August 16, 2005
If we've seen the best cast of the
bubbleists, there's little to fear.
How Much Longer?
August 10, 2005
Markets are finally anticipating no
Fed pauses this year -- but that may not be the end of the hiking cycle.
Straightening Out the Curve
August 1, 2005
As the economic gloom lifts, bonds
face the music.
The Yuan Yawn
July 27, 2005
Bonds and the dollar refute the
conventional take on the Chinese currency revaluation.
July 14, 2005
Don't be fooled -- signals from the
dollar and the CPI only seem benign.
On The June Jobs Report
July 8, 2005
July 1, 2005
bulls retreat today as manufacturing defies the case for stagnation.
June 27, 2005
Oil prices put the Fed on notice:
this is no time to be flirting with a less vigilant stance.
Fed, Still Behind the Curve
June 16, 2005
This month's seemingly strong
dollar masks dangerous underlying weakness in Fed policy.
June 8, 2005
When Greenspan talks, bonds don't
listen. Perhaps tomorrow he'll raise his voice.
On the Bond Reversal
June 3, 2005
Brave New World?
June 1, 2005
Bonds have mistakenly given up on
growth -- but the Fed won't give up on rate hikes.
May 17, 2005
Hedge fund panic mongers are trying
to jawbone the Fed into a big mistake.
Money Supply Mishmash
May 11, 2005
inflation-denying soft-patch brigade has found a new way to be wrong.
Stag No, Flation Yes
May 3, 2005
Thankfully, the Fed shows no sign
of bowing to the pundits' scare stories.
Slowdown? Not So Fast!
April 19, 2005
Misplaced fears of an economic
slowdown increase the risk that inflation will speed up.
Hope Springs Eternal
April 13, 2005
Wishful thinking in the bond market won't keep
rates from heading higher.
Onward to Normality
April 4, 2005
The bond market just isn't
listening if it believes the Fed is going to slow down.
March 23, 2005
The Fed finally awakens to the
inflation threat -- and in time to remain "measured."
The Fed's Oil Slick
March 21, 2005
Record crude prices mean a monetary
mistake could be not just dumb, but disastrous.
The Conundrum Unravels
March 15, 2005
Bond yields are finally getting
back into line with the rest of the world's markets.
Is Greenspan Getting It?
March 8, 2005
Still oblique, but Greenspan's
inflation warnings are getting louder and clearer.
February 28, 2005
As the evidence mounts,
inflationary risks are becoming impossible for the Fed -- or the bond market
-- to deny.
Dollar to Greenspan: "Show Me"
February 22, 2005
Even bonds are beginning to see
that a "measured" course isn't enough for the Fed.
Bonds: Is This the Turn?
February 11, 2005
Bonds may have finally passed their
apogee of irrationality.
Calm Before the Storm
Friday, February 4, 2005
Fixed income markets are taking
false comfort from the Fed's boilerplate.
On Fourth Quarter GDP
Friday, January 28, 2005
It Doesn't Follow
January 26, 2005
If Wall Street doves have their
way, even higher inflation will be the result.
Risking the Spread
January 12, 2005
The junk spread can't get much
narrower, and the curve won't get much flatter.
A Dollar Rally?
January 4, 2005
Surprise, surprise! Prospects for a
reality-based Fed are helping firm up the dollar.
December 20, 2004
There's a growing number of clues that Alan
Greenspan may be listening to price-signals again.
Dollar and Deficits: Fables,
Fallacies and Foolishness
December 13, 2004
The conventional wisdom is always wrong -- but
when it comes to the dollar, it's dangerously wrong.
December 6, 2004
How much worse will the Fed let inflation risks
get? And when will bonds take notice?
Passing the Buck
November 22, 2004
There's one man in the world who can save the
falling dollar -- and he won't do it.
November 15, 2004
There's a lot of talk about the dollar now --
all of it dangerous, and none of it right.
November 10, 2004
November 5, 2004
Bush struts his stuff, and the
On Third Quarter GDP
October 29, 2004
October 26, 2004
It looks like the Fed may have
found a new reason to stay too easy for too long.
October 15, 2004
The bad news is that oil is at $55. The good
news is that the Fed isn't panicking.
October 8, 2004
Markets are assessing the dangerous
interaction of a Kerry win and a Fed mistake.
Bonds: Sell 'Em While They're
October 1, 2004
A mere data revision triggered a bond market
rout -- and there are more revisions ahead.
September 23, 2004
At 4%, bonds are priced on fantasies that growth
is slowing and that the Fed is fighting inflation.
September 20, 2004
At these yields, the bond market needs the FOMC
to be a lot gloomier than it's likely to be.
A Girlie Man Economy?
September 9, 2004
Hardly. Politicized pessimism notwithstanding,
animal spirits are very much alive and well.
Bond Market Riddle
September 2, 2004
Does misplaced economic pessimism explain
Risks to Expansion: Reality or
August 20, 2004
Today's pessimism is due more to
media bias than to economic fundamentals.
Oil: The Fed's Slippery Slope
August 11, 2004
The bond market is wrong if it thinks that oil
is doing the Fed's tightening job for it.
August 9, 2004
Greenspan won't take a pass tomorrow -- but
that's where the certainty ends.
Inflation: That '70s Show?
August 2, 2004
The Fed now has several new reasons
to make old inflationary mistakes.
On June CPI
Friday, July 16, 2004
No Bail-Out for Bonds
July 13, 2004
A growth plateau won't save bonds from
rising inflation and a behind-the-curve Fed.
On the June FOMC Meeting
June 28, 2004
June 28, 2004
Gold tells the tale the Fed would
rather be left unsaid.
June 16, 2004
Small improvements in reported inflation only
open the door for large policy error.
High Risk for High Yield
June 3, 2004
Junk bonds could soon face a
double-headwind from inflation and Fed rate hikes.
Surprises in Store
May 27, 2004
"Gradualism" means the Fed is not so gradually
falling behind the inflationary curve.
May 19, 2004
This isn't the 1970s -- today's oil prices don't
have to be an obstacle to expansion.
What's Up With Gold?
May 11, 2004
Does the drop in gold mean an end
to inflationary risk? Not by a long shot.
On the FOMC Statement
May 4, 2004
Clear and Present
April 29, 2004
Everyone seems to know the Fed is raising rates.
But does the Fed?
On March CPI
April 19, 2004
Bonds face the reality of the
awakening of a long-slumbering Fed.
On March CPI
April 14, 2004
April 12, 2004
Even after March's terrific jobs
report, the Fed still just doesn't get it.
On the March Jobs Report
April 2, 2004
Whatís He Thinking?
March 29, 2004
Alan Greenspan wants inflation. The
problem is: he's going to get more than he's bargaining for.
On the FOMC Statement
March 16, 2004
Healing Old Wounds, Inflicting
March 15, 2004
A too-tight Fed ended the boom. A
too-easy one won't bring it back.
Dollar Rally: What It Is, and
What It Isnít
March 4, 2004
The dollar move suggests only that
we might avoid the worst-case inflationary scenario.
A "Real" Dollar Rally? Donít
Bank On It
February 19, 2004
Until the Fed reverses its
inflationary course, the dollar is headed nowhere but lower.
Output Gap Fallacies
February 6, 2004
Another jobs report, another bad
excuse for the Fed's flirtation with disaster.
Good News, Bad News
January 29, 2004
The Fed takes a step in the
direction of sanity -- if only a small one.
Donít Worry, Be Happy?
January 27, 2004
Is the Fed inevitably facing the constraints of reality?
Dollar, Euro, Gold, Fed, ECB
January 20, 2004
For all the fireworks last week, one truth remains: the Fed is too easy.
Bond Bubble Sure To Burst, But
January 13, 2004
A questionable jobs number has given the bond market a questionable
TREND MACRO LIVE!
Monday, January 5, 2004
So Much To Lose
December 23, 2003
The economy's robust health highlights the potential being put at risk by
Saddam's Not Enough
December 15, 2003
Geopolitical/military risk is one
thing -- and monetary risk is another.
Further Behind the Curve
December 8, 2003
The jobs report can only reinforce the Fed's increasing recklessness.
Errors All Around
December 4, 2003
Since the tax cuts, the
administration's policy moves have given markets little to cheer.
Betting on Sanity
November 21, 2003
Markets think that the Fed isn't going to be quite as reckless as its
See No Evil
November 14, 2003
If the Fed refuses to learn from inflationary history, are we doomed to
Another Virtuous Cycle
November 6, 2003
It's not just one great quarter.
The economy's growth engine has been turned back on.
Desperately Seeking Inflation?
October 29, 2003
Markets will have to deal with the possibility
that Greenspan isn't just blind to inflation -- he actually wants it.
FOMC: Moment of Truth
October 27, 2003
Tomorrow's policy meeting could be
pivotal in determining whether inflation risk becomes inflation reality.
Disinflation: Public Face vs
October 20, 2003
Surely the Fed must at least privately acknowledge the evidence that
disinflation is over. Now -- will they act?
October 13, 2003
Stubborn inflation risks point to
the dangers of the administration's currency gambit.
Back From the Inflationary Brink
October 6, 2003
Evidence of jobs recovery may save the Fed from
an all-too-familiar policy error.
Treasuries: Face the
October 2, 2003
Accelerating growth and inflation risk mean that
Treasuries are headed for a big fall.
IPOs Say Go
September 30, 2003
The talk remains gloomy -- but the encouraging
action in IPOs and high-yield debt speaks louder than words.
September 23, 2003
ill-advised shift to an "activist" dollar policy carries potentially ominous
domestic and international implications.
Gold at $380
September 10, 2003
The Fed's confused belief that its role is to
regulate the labor market is again putting monetary risk in play.
August Jobs Report -- What It
September 5, 2003
A grim-looking labor market doesn't
directly threaten the expansion, but carries risks of its own.
Labor, Capital, Confusion
September 2, 2003
Productivity is not the enemy of job creation --
it is indispensable to it.
Japan's Reflation Clouded By
August 26, 2003
The conventional wisdom expects Japanese
recovery -- but the dangerous dynamics of deflation may still be very much
Is This What They Had In Mind?
August 18, 2003
The Fed has allowed long-submerged
inflation risks to resurface, but appears unlikely to allow the risk to
August 11, 2003
Tomorrow's meeting should bring
early hints of a forthcoming policy change.
Short Rates Take the Long View
August 1, 2003
Today's data was a mixed bag, but short rates
continue to forecast resurgent growth.
The Great Unwinding
July 31, 2003
Don't fret. This bond market
blow-back is overwhelmingly good news.
Flies in the Ointment
July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets
are pausing to consider the risks.
Betting on Growth
July 11, 2003
The financial markets appear poised
for a significant growth rebound, but interest rate futures are lagging
JGB Sell-Off: The Real Deal?
July 3, 2003
Japanese government bonds take a tumble, but
without monetary reflation, they may not have much further to go.
Bond Market Blow-Off
June 20, 2003
Treasuries are finally starting to
get real about growth prospects and inflation risk.
How Much Room?
June 11, 2003
How much longer will the Fed be able to court
inflation risk as it fights a non-existent deflation?
May 27, 2003
Widespread misunderstanding of
today's deflation threat may be as dangerous as deflation itself.
May 19, 2003
John Snow's loose lips rocked the
boat, but the Fed is the captain of the dollar's fate.
While the Gettin's Good
May 9, 2003
The Fed's talk about deflation has
delayed the day of reckoning for long Treasuries.
May 7, 2003
A muddled Fed contemplates applying
monetary solutions to non-monetary problems.
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House,
and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.
April 24, 2003
The market's awakening isn't about last
quarter's earnings -- it's about the gradual return of the preconditions for
Half a Loaf?
April 17, 2003
The shape of possible tax-cut compromise is
beginning to emerge from the fog of legislative war.
A Bounce for Gold
April 9, 2003
With war-fear trades unwound and
the Fed still committed to fighting deflation, gold has more upside than
Better Than It Looks
April 4, 2003
Warning: data in the rear-view mirror is smaller
than it appears.
March 31, 2003
Markets have been a lot more resilient than
embedded Wall Street pundits appreciate.
March 21, 2003
It's time for the recovery of risk
tolerance, and that means more bad news for Treasuries.
Jobs, Uncertainty and the Fed
March 10, 2003
Will the Fed fall into the inflationary trap of
using monetary policy to deal with non-monetary problems.
March 4, 2003
Iraq risk has been kind to
Treasuries -- but what happens after that risk is resolved?
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE
Iraq & the Stock Market
February 26, 2003
Prompt military action will send indexes upward.
Lifting the Fog of War
February 19, 2003
Markets are not comforted by deferring the
decision to go to war -- markets want resolution, and that's probably not
The Brightening Capex Outlook
February 11, 2003
The recession's signature malady
-- depressed capital investment -- is quietly beginning to turn around.
The Too-Big Easy?
January 31, 2003
There's no inflationary impulse in the Fed's
accommodative stance -- yet. But it's time to start watching.
January 23, 2003
A market addicted to bad news is overlooking
some fundamental positives.
The Curse of Rubinomics
January 15, 2003
The dead hand of Clinton-era economic fallacies
puts Bush's tax package at risk.
January 8, 2003
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an
important pro-growth initiative.
Gameplan for the New
January 6, 2003
A macro view of the major US asset
classes, and a new Model Position in bonds.
Bush's Tax Cuts: Curb
January 2, 2003
pro-growth tax policy initiatives are worse than dead -- they've never even
Gold's Wild Ride
December 20, 2002
It's for sure now -- both gold and Greenspan are
telling us unambiguously that the Fed "gets it" on deflation.
A Lott for
Markets to Think
December 16, 2002
There are both
big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis --
while we wait, there's big uncertainty.
Good as Gold
December 13, 2002
Stocks were spooked by deflation fears today,
but signals from gold and the dollar say "don't worry."
December 9, 2002
Bush's selection of Snow and Friedman dashes
hopes that the administration will adopt a strong pro-growth policy agenda.
Japan: Here We Go Again
December 4, 2002
Japan's anti-deflationary efforts remain mired
in politics and incompetence.
Monetary Progress, Fiscal
November 25, 2002
The Fed may not know what deflation is, but they
know how to fight it. Sadly, the GOP neither knows what growth is, nor how
to stimulate it.
A Deflation Dichotomy
November 18, 2002
The Fed's finally fighting deflation -- but if
deflation is already subsiding, then they're making a whole new world of
Better Late Than Never
November 8, 2002
Fed minutes show policymakers grappling with the
specter of deflation risk.
Help is on the Way?
October 31, 2002
The market's betting that the FOMC will cut
rates next week. Here's why the market isn't more thrilled about that.
October 21, 2002
The stock market may be "cheap,"
but deflationary risk and systemic risk-aversion are making it tough to
capture the value.
Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.
Monetary Hall of Mirrors
October 11, 2002
If monetary policy is the easiest it's been in
40 years, why isn't the Fed adding liquidity?
The Tech Depression: Will It
October 8, 2002
The high-tech investment meltdown
shows little sign of easing, with risk premiums remaining at prohibitive
What's Ahead for Bonds?
September 27, 2002
driving up long Treasuries is abating -- but so far there's no pressure for
them to come back down.
A Lopsided Economy
September 16, 2002
Both risk and risk-aversion
continue to run high, and even Alan Greenspan is silent as an anemic
recovery muddles on.
911: Why It Matters, Why
September 11, 2002
Understanding the macroeconomic impacts of 911
-- real and imagined, economic and political.
NY Minutes: Valuation and
Deflation -- No Elation
September 4, 2002
We didn't meet one bull on Wall Street last
week, yet equity values are attractive and deflationary pressures are under
The Reality Trade
August 19, 2002
The FOMC's bias shift offers little support to a market over-extended on
August 12, 2002
The same Wall Street economists who
expected the Fed to tighten last spring are going to be disappointed all
over again -- when the Fed doesnít ease.
August 6, 2002
It wasnít as good as everyone hoped in the
first quarter. So itís not as bad as everyone fears now.
July 29, 2002
The dollarís appreciation against forex and gold might be just a technical
phenomenon -- or it could mean that monetary deflationís not quite dead.
Looking More and More Like
July 19, 2002
Like his father, President Bush doesn't seem to have "the vision thing"
when it comes to the economy and the markets.
Greenspan Still On Hold
July 16, 2002
Greenspan may be "upbeat," but that doesn't mean
rates are going up any time soon.
A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002
recovery is elusive and stocks are still rich. The Old Economy is now the
engine of recovery -- and it's cheap.
Tempting the Monetary Fates?
June 27, 2002
Calls for the Fed to ease now are as misguided
as were the calls for tightening two months ago.
Trade Deficit Hokum
June 21, 2002
Donít believe the scare stories about the record
trade deficit -- itís a sign that the US economy is recovering.
Not So Fast
June 10, 2002
For the Fed, reversing last year's rate cuts
looks likely to stay on hold.
Going for the Gold
June 4, 2002
The mediaís consternation over the
dollar and gold is off the mark. These are the best indications yet that the
Fedís deflationary siege is finally over.
That Was the Quarter That
May 28, 2002
Cut through all the statistical noise, and
first quarter growth looks nothing like the advertised boom.
Twists and Turns on the Road
May 21, 2002
Reflationary impulses are taking
hold, reducing risk aversion and brightening prospects for continued
recovery. But is the news good enough for US equities?
Debating the Valuation
May 13, 2002
David Gitlitz doesn't agree that equity
valuations got too high in the late 1990s -- but he and Luskin both think
they're too high now.
May 7, 2002
The dollar is in a positive
transition from excessive scarcity to a strong -- but non-deflationary --
Where's the Risk?
April 23, 2002
For all the chatter about expansion, how come
the markets won't bet on it?
Oil, the Middle East, and IBM
April 11, 2002
Oil's just an excuse -- the
truth is that the investment necessary to sustain recovery just isn't
Time for a Reality Check
April 5, 2002
We know booms. Recovery, you are no boom.
BoJ Watch: The
Incomprehensible Mr. Hayami
March 28, 2002
The BoJ's chief provides a grim reminder of
the tremendous institutional obstacles to anti-deflationary policies.
The Fever Breaks
March 26, 2002
Today may have been an inflection point -- the
market saw the media celebration over consumer confidence, but listened to
March 18, 2002
Wall Street may have already made up its mind,
but Greenspan's careful signals mean a shift into neutral tomorrow is no
better than a 50/50 proposition.
March 15, 2002
A recovery may be just beginning. Now let's
hope the Fed doesn't fight inflation that's not there -- again!
BoJ Watch: The Yen Paradox
March 8, 2002
How come the yen is surging just when the BoJ
promises to reflate?
Leap Forward... or Leap of
March 5, 2002
Recovery? Maybe so. But buyer
beware: that's not the same thing as expansion.
BoJ Watch: Climbing on Board
March 1, 2002
At last the stars are aligning for deflation
relief in Japan. That should spell more trouble soon for JGB's.
February 26, 2002
He'll be even more circumspect than usual
tomorrow -- and that will be a disappointment for the rate-hike bears.
BoJ Watch: Encouraging Signs
February 19, 2002
President Bush's Japan visit appears to have
provided important impetus for a reflationary push.
Gold at $300: Is This the
February 13, 2002
Gold's recent move to $300 represents one of
the more promising signs that dollar deflation is finally at an end.
BoJ Watch: Putting on the JGB
February 5, 2002
A marginal shift against expectations for
sustained yen deflation is creating opportunities to short the Japanese
January 28, 2002
The Fed is done "easing," but the deflationary
shortfall of dollars remains unaddressed.
BoJ Watch: A Pause On the
Yenís Downhill Road
January 22, 2002
Saber-rattling by Asian neighbors has made
Japanese officials clam-up on Yen depreciation -- but it's still destined to
The Risk Aversion Hurdle
January 15, 2002
recovery requires risk-taking Ė but the Fedís continuing deflationary bias
stands in the way.
A Green Eyeshade Recovery
January 9, 2002
by the math, recovery could be swift. But that doesn't mean you won't think
we're still in recession.
Argentina: A Victim of Foreign
January 7, 2002
Monetary deflation imported from the US Fed
and disastrous fiscal follies imported from the IMF are what killed
The 1990s Boom-and-Bust:
Learning the Wrong Lessons
December 31, 2001
How can we hope to restore the prosperity of
the 1990s when no one understands why it ended?
Following the Curve
December 21, 2001
The long bond still presents attractive value in
The Falling Yen
December 17, 2001
Speculation about a forthcoming anti-deflation
policy initiative in Japan
continues to mount.
One Wild Ride
December 10, 2001
The pounding of the bond market reflects
expectations that the Fed will soon switch into a tightening mode. It's more
likely that even after tomorrowís funds rate cut, the Fed won't be done.
On the Road to Recovery?
December 4, 2001
Some would have us believe recent data
suggests that an early recovery is
all but assured. It's not.
Japan: Opportunity in Chaos
November 27, 2001
A real anti-deflationary policy thrust might
finally be in sight in Japan, giving rise to compelling investment
Show Me The Money
November 19, 2001
Gold is back down to pre-September 11 levels,
an indication of the risks to a market pricing for V-shaped recovery.
Productivity: Fact and Fancy
November 8, 2001
Don't be fooled.
Stronger-than-expected third quarter productivity was a statistical mirage
created by the rapid reversal of the labor market.
BoJ on the Potomac?
November 2, 2001
It's not premature to ask: Is the Fed
following in the disastrous footsteps of the Bank of Japan?
A Bipartisan Bungle
October 25, 2001
"stimulus" package working its way through Washington may never become
law -- but if it does, it will be a monument to compromise, not to
Gold: Back to Square One
October 22, 2001
Gold is almost back to pre-September 11
levels. That means the panic is over -- but is also means that the Fed still
hasn't really eased.
Trouble Next Door
October 16, 2001
With comic relief from a
Keystone Cops performance by Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, the Bush
Administration is botching its chance to implement pro-growth tax policies.
October 12, 2001
The Fed is signaling that
it's back to a rigid rate-targeting policy -- and they're even willing to
drain liquidity to do it.
A Stimulus to Folly
October 10, 2001
Why, with his 90% approval rating and his
masterful handling of the war on terrorism, is President Bush letting
Robert Rubin design fiscal stimulus policies?
October 5, 2001
Just a relief rally? Maybe, but there are signs that Alan Greenspan may
finally have gotten it right. And that could make a difference.
GOP to Greenspan: Drop
September 28, 2001
Republicans are furious that Alan Greenspan is siding with Robert Rubin and
the Democrats against tax cuts -- and as he drains liquidity from the
system, the only winner in this trainwreck will be bonds.
September 26, 2001
Stocks may be getting cheaper in terms of some valuation measures -- but not
in terms of the market's willingness to bear risk.
Paralysis on Wall Street
September 21, 2001
The terrorist attack was a direct hit on
corporate earnings -- and on confidence in the future. The result is a
death-blow to equity values.
A Significant Fed Move
September 17, 2001
The Fed is going to meet emergency
liquidity needs, whatever it takes. But we'll have to wait till the next
FOMC meeting to see if they intend to make a permanent difference.
September 14, 2001
The good news -- the dollar and the US markets are still safe havens, and
the long bear market has already wrung out a lot of risk exposure.
Reckoning With Reality
September 10, 2001
The reality of a collapsing economy
is catching up to the Fed. But is there anything the Fed can do to catch up
to the reality of the collapsing economy?
Looking Under the Dust
September 5, 2001
This week's bond market massacre has
been ugly -- but Alan Greenspan isn't through cutting rates!