US PCE Inflation - 2023-12-21

Powell's secret personal inflation index, core services ex-shelter, grew at a below-target annual rate of 1.48% last month. Year-on-year it's down to a mere 3.48%. Headline PCE deflated sharply on the month at a -0.86% annual rate, and is now at only 2.64% year-on-year. No wonder Powell was so optimistic last week -- presumably he saw this data in advance (or maybe he's started following our monetarist model that predicted all this).