High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-03-20

If this productivity-led boom were softening, we'd see it in the high-frequency data first, but we don't. New and existing claims, already at low levels, beat expectations yet again, leaving the implied unemployment rate at 1.3%. The only worrisome spot is the Truflation real-time measure of March inflation, not showing over 10% at an annual rate. It's volatile and somewhat erratic, and was showing outright deflation in March just 10 tens ago. But something to keep an eye on...