The ECB continues to hike rates, and announces QT to begin in March without outright sales. They predict an imminent recession "owing to the energy crisis." You mean "owing to the EU's decades of suicidal energy policy"?
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, October 27, 2022
The ECB hikes rates another 75 bp. The usual vapid rationale: "The Governing Council’s monetary policy is aimed at reducing support for demand and guarding against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations."
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, September 8, 2022
The fools. The mad fools. Probably already in recession, and facing a gas-less winter that could end in cannibalism in Eastern Europe, the ECB hikes its benchmark rates by 75 bp.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, July 21, 2022
The ECB raises its most important policy rate by 50 bp, when 25 was expected. But calm down people. That means they raised it to zero.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, June 9, 2022
We have lift-off! At least a very European sort of lift-off. It won't be till next month. And policy rates will still be negative. But just less negative.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, April 14, 2022
In the mid 2010's when Mario Draghi was ECB president, he just couldn't stop worrying about inflation being to low in the euro zone. Oh well... times change.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, March 10, 2022
The ECB warns it will stop bond purchases in Q3 if the Ukraine invasion adds to inflation. And how exactly will it help to make the Euro Area less liquid? The Italian sovereign bond market's answer: 10-year spread-to-Germany widens 15 bp.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, February 3, 2022
The BOE hits the stupid button again with another rate hike, almost a double. Reinvestments of maturities from corporates will cease, and outright sales will commence in two years. Meanwhile the ECB agrees to think about it for a while...
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, December 16, 2021
Inflation expectations on a five-year forward basis have recovered more in the euro zone than in the US. And yet the ECB didn't get the memo: more QE, not less.
ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor
Thursday, October 28, 2021
The ECB doesn't change its posture -- and who would have really expected otherwise. But a memo went out to the media: every headline about the no-change decision includes the phrase "despite soaring inflation." Thank goodness journalists aren't central bankers.