What you're not hearing about the mid-term elections and Trump 2024

Our baseline case for the midterms is that the GOP will gain a majority of 2 in the Senate, and 27 in the House (fewer flipped seats than in the 1994 wave, but a bigger House majority than Gingrich had). In the Senate, the GOP will flip Nevada and hold Pennsylvania. There is scope to flip Arizona and Georgia as well. This is a bulwark against anti-growth policy initiatives and appointments, but it doesn't point to pro-growth legislation unless the GOP majority holds must-pass legislation hostage, such as raising the debt ceiling. Our baseline, and all the more so if the GOP takes Arizona and Georgia Senate seats, points to the viability of Trump-endorsed candidates in general elections. The Democratic strategy this year has been to "put Trump on the ballot." A strong showing for his endorsed candidates would show that Trump can win in 2024 -- emboldening him to run -- and it looks like it's shaping up that way.