The alternative measures show a much more dovish view than traditional CPI -- broad deceleration almost no matter how you slice it. And by the way -- without the heavy seasonal adjustments, CPI deflated 2.4% at an annual rate in November, and core rose by a well-below-target rate of 0.9%.
TrendMacro conversation on Truflation, with co-founder and product lead Oliver Rust
Thursday, December 21, 2023
TrendMacro conversation on Truflation, with co-founder and product lead Oliver Rust
Update to Strategic View
Truflation aims to create a private-sector alternative to CPI and other government inflation measures, bringing to bear access to a world of "big data" and real-time processing capabilities. Without the lags inherent in the way CPI data is gathered and collated, Truflation showed an earlier surge in inflation than CPI did, all the way back in early 2121. At the peak of officially reported inflation in mid-2022, Truflation showed an inflation rate 3% higher. Now Truflation is showing somewhat lower inflation rates than CPI. The biggest difference is housing, where Truflation's methods eliminate the multi-month lags of CPI's owners' equivalent rent method. Truflation also predicts CPI releases in advance, by using its unique data-set with CPI methodologies, and it has consistently outperformed the consensus of economists.