Bond bulls retreat today as manufacturing defies the case for stagnation.
Oil prices put the Fed on notice: this is no time to be flirting with a less vigilant stance.
Oil, inflation plays, Social Security, global warming and China.
This month's seemingly strong dollar masks dangerous underlying weakness in Fed policy.
The carry trade with the best mark-to-value and the most valuable optionality is the one that no one is doing.
We aren't buying the stories the "efficient" bond market is telling, and either is Greenspan.
When Greenspan talks, bonds don't listen. Perhaps tomorrow he'll raise his voice.
Stocks are telling us that inflation risk is moderating, rates are rising, and that growth will be steady.
Bonds have mistakenly given up on growth -- but the Fed won't give up on rate hikes.