On the March Jobs Report
A headline beat on payrolls, but really only a middling growth-rate, with a huge drop in manufacturing payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked up as the labor force expanded, and many new entrants don’t have jobs. This confirms Yellen’s new-found “uncertainty” doctrine, and takes pressure off Phillips Curve concerns that we are at maximum employment and at risk of an inflationary outbreak. Nothing here to keep the Fed from being "one and done."