The trump card the ECB could use on Greece

Greek banks have for months been relying heavily on what is called "emergency liquidity assistance" from the European Central Bank for just more than 80 billion euros ($90 billion).

"It's a bit like printing euros for that one national bank," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, who points out the loan comes at a higher interest rate since it's often backed by the flimsiest of notes. "But ELA doesn't come as an obligation or a risk of the Eurosystem."

China's woes could complicate Fed rate plans

"China's move highlights the fragility of the global economy, and the Fed is always inclined toward a 'safety first' attitude -- so in the absence of any compelling reason to hike rates, this will be just one more reason not to," Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, told USA TODAY. "China's move will have repercussions that may take time to play out, including an implicit strengthening of the dollar that would tend to lower inflation. The Fed will want to play wait-and-see. They've waited almost seven years. Why not a couple more meetings?"

Wall Street builds case for year-end stock rally

"Many of the headwinds that sparked the U.S. stock market's biggest swoon since 2011 are no longer weighing down the market like they did earlier this year, says Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro.

"The big August correction was caused by the strong dollar, collapsing oil prices, a scary slowdown in China, and a Fed that seemed determined to hike rates despite it all," says Luskin. "Every risk factor driving the big correction has reversed for the better now."

Establishment Food Fight

I said people were going to anticipate the end of the Obama era. I didn't say it was going to happen in the first week of the year. This was obviously the roughest week in equity markets. But Donald Luskin noted in our paper that the 70% decline of oil prices over the last year represents $2.9 trillion of savings to consumers world-wide. This is enormous. You couple this with people seeing the end of the Obama era, and eventually we're going to get more discussion about tax reform in the Republican primary. I think that optimism starts coming back.

The Leap of Trump

Financial analyst and our contributor Donald Luskin has described Donald Trump as a "black swan" over the political economy. He's referring to an outlier event that few anticipated and whose impact is impossible to predict. As the voting season begins in Iowa, this strikes us as a useful way for Republicans to think about the Trump candidacy.

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