Is Oil Priced to Perfection Again?

http://www.trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20170509TrendMacroWarren-L5.pdf
Donald L. Luskin
Michael Warren
Tuesday, May 9, 2017
Earth to oil! Permian running out of pipes. Inventories correcting. OPEC cuts extended.
Strategic view: 

We are disappointed by the recent move by oil to the low $40’s. We recognize that our price target of $65 has a sell-by date, that it is eroded every day by the secular technology revolution in fracking that we ourselves have celebrated. But in the cyclical timeframe, the shadows of the 2014-2016 crash – global CAPEX underinvestment and OPEC cuts, and political instability in producer nations – argue for higher prices. The seeming surge in US shale production is the exploitation of low-hanging fruit, and cannot be extrapolated. Seemingly high inventories are in part due to hedging at the onset of unanticipated supply cuts, and are now beginning to come down in a season when they should be rising.

Market(s): 
Section: 
TrendMacro
Author Override: 
Michael Warren and Donald Luskin