On the March Jobs Report

An inexplicable headline miss, with only 98,000 net payrolls – while ADP had showed 263,000. Could be another March problem as in 2015. Weather is only a partial explanation. At the same time, the household survey showed large employment gains, a large drop in unemployment and long-term unemployment, and growth in the labor force. But 0.2% earnings growth will comfort the Fed in the face of apparent “undershoot” in unemployment. For the first time in memory, job gains were skewed to higher-wage sectors.