Nice upward revisions to last month's big miss -- but this one is still another miss.
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, September 3, 2021
A big payroll miss. To help you understand it, we have new features this month on page 2! We reveal the role of seasonal adjustments and the birth-death model; we show employment by race, gender and education; and we show the components of the TrendMacro Payroll Model based on contemporaneous labor market statistics (our model nailed it this month, by the way).
US Jobs
Friday, August 6, 2021
It's a beat, all the more so on top of big revisions to prior months. The boom lives!
US Jobs
Friday, July 2, 2021
At last, a beat in payrolls. But the "Household Survey" doesn't agree, with a dove-friendly uptick in the unemployment rate.
US Jobs
Friday, June 4, 2021
The labor force shrinks as the economy re-opens. We all know what's going on here. All together: we're paying people more not to work than to work.
US Jobs
Friday, March 5, 2021
A big beat, led by the reopening-sensitive leisure sector even in a frigid winter.
US Jobs
Friday, February 5, 2021
A miss, but the real story is that labor market is basically unchanged -- frozen in the "dark winter" of Covid before the coming boom.
US Jobs
Friday, January 8, 2021
A catastrophe in the lockdown-sensitive leisure sector. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...