US May services PMI falls, but still indicates growth. The amazing news is that the prices-paid index fell to its lowest level since the pandemic deflation. Our forecast is coming true: no landing, and the end of inflation.
Global PMI
Global PMI
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
US services PMI ticks up, in defiance of what is already an almost two-month-old banking crisis.
Global PMI
Wednesday, April 5, 2023
China's PMIs continue to lead the world. In the US, the services sector "prices paid" component continues its year-long decline -- making one wonder what Jay Powell is so worried about.
Global PMI
Friday, March 3, 2023
Almost everywhere in the world, PMIs are turning up in the services sector (and in a lot of nations' manufacturing sectors, too). Again, it's crazy, but it seems the more the central banks of the world tighten, the stronger the economy gets.
Global PMI
Friday, February 3, 2023
We told you last month's US services disaster was fake news -- and now it's come virtually all the way back (with no particular explanation from ISM). PMI's upticked almost everywhere in the world, too -- especially China.
Global PMI
Friday, January 6, 2023
US services PMI is a shocker, and so out of synch with other data we have to doubt that it's even right. But... but... you have to respect PMI's because, unlike most macro data, they are forward looking. Unfortunately, the worst element was the most forward-looking: orders. Fell. Off. A. Cliff. This will certainly test the "bad news is good news" hypothesis, and it becomes part of our "one and done" forecast for the Fed.
Global PMI
Monday, December 5, 2022
US services PMI rises -- the employment component rises, too, while the prices paid component falls. Jay. Jay. Is the inflation in the room with us now? Jay?
Global PMI
Thursday, November 3, 2022
US PMI's are solid. But here's a wet kiss for Jay Powell: the services employment index fell below 50, indicating contraction of hiring plans. Powell thinks inflation comes from Americans having jobs, so he'll be thrilled.
Global PMI
Wednesday, October 5, 2022
Sorry Jay. Another strong US services PMI number. Globally, manufacturing PMIs have slipped slightly below 50, indicating contraction. But it's very much concentrated in Europe, for obvious reasons for which there are no ready solutions.
Global PMI
Tuesday, September 6, 2022
We like PMI's because they are a rare instance of forward-looking economic data -- and across most of Europe, they are forward-looking to recession.