THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The Shale Boom Shifts Into Higher Gear Monday, June 1, 2015 Oil production is becoming a modern manufacturing process, with frackers using the ‘just-in-time’ approach. MORE>>
		INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY Job Security Never Better, But That's The Bad News Monday, September 16, 2013 The labor market is now the least dynamic it's ever been, thanks to multiple policy errors.  MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Regime Change Comes to Euro Policy Thursday, March 28, 2013 The banking crisis in Cyprus prompted an overdue financial reckoning that, with luck, will spell the end of "too big to fail." MORE>>
		FINANCIAL TIMES ALPHAVILLE Estimating the LSAP effect on the stock market March 23, 2013 We can estimate the value of stock purchases the Fed is enabling. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Better to be Bearish August 24, 2012 Romney would benefit from a market apprehensive about the election. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The 2013 Fiscal Cliff Could Crush Stocks Saturday, May 5, 2012 Do the math on dividend taxes. Yields lower, stock prices lower -- maybe by 30%. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Europe's Supply-Side Revolution Friday, February 17, 2012 Following Germany's lead, euro-zone nations are pursuing pro-growth reforms that Reagan and Thatcher would admire. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Newt's Bain Opportunism Is Mitt's Opportunity Tuesday, January 17, 2012 This is Romney's moment to distinguish himself by making a moral case for free-market capitalism. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Paul Krugman: The Prophet of Socialism Wednesday, June 13, 2011 A prophet who has been consistently wrong. MORE>>
		FOR YOUR INFORMATION TrendMacro Announces New Chief Europe Strategist Wednesday, June 1, 2011 Ireland-based Lorcan Roche Kelly to cover European markets, policy, politics MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Professors to Koch Brothers: Take Your Green Back Wednesday, May 25, 2011 No one ever questions George Soros money, but apparently this $1.5 million gift violates academic freedom. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Remembering the Real Ayn Rand Thursday, April 14, 2011 The author of "Atlas Shrugged" was an individualist, not a conservative, and she knew big business was as much a threat to capitalism as government bureaucrats. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Oil Prices Won't Kill the Recovery Tuesday, March 29, 2011 The 30% price spike to date isn't big enough to be a major shock, and the economy is less vulnerable today than it was in the expansion's late stages in 2008. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The Trade and Tax Doomsday Clocks Monday, October 4, 2010 Tariffs against China and failure to extend the Bush-era tax cuts would repeat the worst mistakes of the Great Depression. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Keep Taxes Low, Mr. President Friday, September 10, 2010 It's the one thing Obama can do to help economy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE We're Not Going to Double Dip Friday, August 27, 2010 Gold's price and corporate earnings should inspire confidence. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE In Search of Certainty at the Fed Thursday, August 26, 2009 Our monetary PhDs need to get on the same page about policy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Case Against Gold Falls Apart Friday, July 23, 2010 Stocks are no match for gold at the moment. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Gold Remains Great for the Long Haul Friday, July 16, 2010 The reasons that gold bears use just don't add up. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why This Isn't Like 1938 -- At Least Not Yet Friday, July 9, 2010 Stock prices show we've dodged another depression, but toxic, antibusiness rhetoric and policy errors like the Dodd-Frank bill are hurting the still-fragile recovery. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Don't Worry About the Economy Friday, July 9, 2010 The talk of a double-dip recession doesn't add up. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE What Was Scott Brown Thinking? Friday, May 21, 2010 His vote allows the financial reform bill to move through Congress. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Even at These Prices, Keep Hold of Your Gold Friday, May 14, 2010 The price of gold has been soaring, but don't sell just yet. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Goldman Case: What You Need to Know Friday, April 23, 2010 The SEC has only one bone to pick with the Wall Street giant. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL George W. Bush's 2010 Tax Miracle Thursday, April 15, 2010 Mass conversions to Roth IRAs could produce a gusher of revenue, reducing our budget deficit by as much as half next year. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Congress Hates Capitalism, It Seems Friday, April 2, 2010 CEOs are called to task for following the new health care law. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Health Care 'Change' Will Leave You With Less Friday, March 26, 2010 Reform is bringing new taxes that could kill the economy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Send a Thank You Card to Tim Geithner Friday, February 12, 2010 One year ago this week he saved the world by doing nothing. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Republicans and the Populist Temptation Tuesday, February 9, 2010 The reaction to Scott Brown's victory has been a lurch toward antibusiness rhetoric. The stock market doesn't like it. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why Taxing Stock Trades Is a Really Bad Idea Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Everyday investors shouldn't be punished for a subprime fiasco fueled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. MORE>>
		ACTIVE TRADER The Unseen Danger of Leveraged ETFs Thursday, December 17, 2009 How these rapidly selling products can crush you over time. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE $300,000 of Gold, in the Palm of My Hand Friday, November 6, 2009  A trip to the Federal Reserve reaffirms my belief in owning gold. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Weak Dollar, Oblivious Treasury? Tuesday, October 20 2009 Conservatives can take comfort in the fact that the Treasury Department ’s approach to the dollar is both realistic and sensible. MORE>>
		REASON MAGAZINE Inflation Returns October, 2009 The Fed fears unemployment more than rising prices. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL In Defense of "Flash" Trading Thursday, August 27, 2009 It's no different from selling your house without a real estate listing. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Whole Foods-Style Health Care Friday, August 21. 2009 How the supermarket's plan trumps Obama's ideas. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Must-Read Thriller of the Summer Friday, August 14. 2009 A new book reveals the Fed's moves during the financial crisis. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Can the Fed Identify Bubbles Before They Happen? Wednesday, July 29, 2009 The New York Fed’s president says it can. If only it were that easy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE This Health-Care Reform Might Tax Us to Death Friday, July 17, 2009 The current health-care reform plan will be financially onerous to everyone. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over Friday, May 15, 2009 Peak unemployment claims show the recession may be over. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE TARP Looking More Criminal by the Minute Friday, April 24, 2009 The issue of TARP corruption may now extend from corporate CEOs and federal regulators to New York’s attorney general. MORE>>
		HARD ASSET INVESTOR The Upside-Down Bell Curve Friday, April 24, 2009 HardAssetsInvestor.com caught up with Don to get his take on the outlook for gold and inflation. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Next Steps Monday, January 26, 2009 What, if anything, we should be doing to buttress the financial system. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Regrets? Monday, December 22, 2008 TARP, reconsidered. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW Death by Rescue Monday, November 17, 2008 How botched bailouts doomed companies that didn't need to fail. MORE>>
		KRUGMAN TRUTH SQUAD Krugman's Posthumous Nobel Tuesday, October 14, 2008 This year's prize in economics goes to an economist who died a decade ago. MORE>>

		USA TODAY Tokyo markets sharply down amid global worries August 24, 2015 "We went three years, two months and 21 days without a 10% correction in the (S&P 500), says Don Luskin, market strategist at TrendMacro. "It was overdue. That doesn't make it a bear market."
		USA TODAY China's woes could complicate Fed rate plans August 12, 2015 "China's move highlights the fragility of the global economy, and the Fed is always inclined toward a 'safety first' attitude -- so in the absence of any compelling reason to hike rates, this will be just one more reason not to," Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, told USA TODAY. "China's move will have repercussions that may take time to play out, including an implicit strengthening of the dollar that would tend to lower inflation. The Fed will want to play wait-and-see. They've waited almost seven years. Why not a couple more meetings?"
		CNBC.COM The trump card the ECB could use on Greece June 17, 2014 Greek banks have for months been relying heavily on what is called "emergency liquidity assistance" from the European Central Bank for just more than 80 billion euros ($90 billion). "It's a bit like printing euros for that one national bank," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, who points out the loan comes at a higher interest rate since it's often backed by the flimsiest of notes. "But ELA doesn't come as an obligation or a risk of the Eurosystem." "It's strange because normally the banks that take on the risk make the decisions, but in this case it's Greece with the risk, and the ECB making the decision," Luskin told CNBC. "This is the ultimate pressure point the ECB has on Greece, it's the real thing," Luskin said. "If the ECB says no more ELA, then Greece goes back to the Stone Age."
		CNBC ASIA Street Signs Friday, April 17, 2015
		CNBC ASIA Street Signs Monday, March 10, 2015
		ETF.COM Luskin: Cheap Oil To Spur Another US Housing Boom February 10, 2014 I'm saying that, five years from now, if you adjust for today's dollars, we're going to be between $15 and $40. That's been our forecast all along and it still is. However, it takes time for technology to play out. Right now there are frackers who can produce a barrel of oil for $23 and there are frackers who can produce a barrel of oil for $90. Somewhere in between there is a fracker who can produce a barrel of oil for $50. Right now he's the one for whom there is just enough demand. So that's why the price is where it is. OPEC is no longer the swing producer. It's the American fracker who is the swing producer. American frackers have, at today's level of demand, a cost function that is between about $25 and $80. So, unless there is a demand collapse—and I can show you all kinds of statistics that show that demand is actually growing, which is what you would expect when prices come down—we're moving up through the cost structure.
		CNBC ASIA Street Signs Wednesday, February 11, 2015
		CNBC.COM Why the CME shutting down floor trading matters February 5, 2014 "The Chicago floors were unique social environments that I treasured," said Donald Luskin, who traded on the Chicago Board of Exchange in the early-1980s and would go on to become a respected and veteran investment officer with Wells Fargo and BlackRock. "They were ladders of opportunity through which completely noncredentialed new entrants could get up close and personal with high finance." Like Luskin, many current and former members lamented the gritty environment of the floor that built not only careers, but life skills. "Everyone there is trying to take advantage of everyone else. It is dog eat dog. ... Yet the acts of kindness and friendship and generosity that emerge from the combat create a kind of camaraderie I've never experienced anywhere else," said Luskin, who is chief investment officer at his own firm, Trend Macrolytics.
		CNBC.COM ECB: Banks can't use Greek debt as collateral February 4, 2015 The ECB's move is "not as big a deal as it seems," TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin wrote in a note, especially in light of Wednesday morning's announcement that the ECB had authorized Greece's central bank to use "Emergency Liquidity Assistance" for Greek banks as needed. "If you put both of today's policy moves together, what it means is that the Greek government—not the Eurosystem—will be on the hook for the collateral. But there will still be a funding mechanism for the banks, in case there is a serious run on them. That's the important thing," Luskin wrote.
		CNBC Squawk Alley Thursday, January 22, 2015
		USA TODAY Dow drops 112 as stocks rollercoaster on oil, ruble December 14, 2014 Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the bad market action tied to sinking oil prices will eventually play out and exhaust itself. "The instabilities are upon us -- in spades; the big losers are identifying themselves," says Luskin. "It seems that's all markets are focusing on now. But the instabilities are short-term, and we think we'll get through them without a lot of damage. On the other side beyond the instabilities is an enormous stimulus to global growth in the form of liberation from a decade of the highest oil prices in history. In the US, just the drop in gasoline prices represents a tax cut almost equivalent to abolishing the payroll tax. Be patient, be alert -- in this instability will emerge great opportunity."
		CNBC Street Signs Friday, November 7, 2014
		USA TODAY Stocks plunge late in the day as Dow drops 223 points October 13, 2014 The geographic shift of the Ebola crisis to U.S. soil in recent days has also put investors on edge, as concern about the spread of the virus and its potential impact on economic growth mounts but with no clear answers evident. "This is the authentic black swan, the one nobody expected," says Don Luskin, chief Investment officer at TrendMacro. "Markets are experiencing the shock of recognition with Ebola."
		USA TODAY First take: Did Alibaba IPO mark a top for stocks? September 26, 2014 "People waited in line to buy Alibaba because they think CEO Jack Ma is the smartest man in the world," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "Hey, everybody -- the guy you think is the smartest man in the world thinks it's a good time to sell stocks. And you want to buy? Really?" Still, Luskin doesn't think the Alibaba-all-the-time storyline caused a market top. Instead, he says the booming-BABA narrative "signaled that a correction was long overdue." ...Luskin, for one, doesn't think Alibaba marks a major top, the one that leads to a full-fledged bear-market drop of 20% or more.
		USA TODAY S&P 500 notches first-ever close above 1900 May 23, 2014 Big round numbers like 1900 are often tough to barrel through easily.. Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the recent market weakness is history. "Round numbers are meaningless, but it's meaningful to make all-time highs," says Luskin. "The winter correction is over. Spring has sprung. It's going to be a very good year. The sector rotation out of growth stocks that had everyone scared in April is over, and in fact has reversed itself. "
		USA TODAY Russia sees 'serious capital flight,' economy slows April 16, 2014 Fallout from the sanctions — and from Russia's destabilization of Ukraine — could be far-reaching. The worst-case economic scenarios are fairly awful, says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics. "We think the feasible worst-case is a war of strong trade sanctions, depriving Russia and Europe of mutual trade," he says. "That would hit both sides hard — Russia, because if derives 12.3% of GDP from exports to Europe, and Europe because it sources a significant share of its natural gas from Russia."
		USA TODAY S&P 500's new high: Street parties like it's 2013 February 28, 2014 "To have only a 6% correction is a great sign of strength," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "It is telling us that U.S. stocks might have been tired but didn't want to go down. They just took a little nap." ..."The economy is not sprinting, but it's finally back on its feet," Luskin says.
		USA TODAY Wall Street grapples with Fed power shift, policy January 30, 2014 Now that Bernanke has tapered twice in succession and in equal $10 billion increments, it could reduce Yellen's flexibility if circumstances change, warns Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics. "Bernanke has handed Yellen a fait accompli, an established policy trend that will be difficult for her to contradict," he told clients.
		IRISH TIMES Irish exports lift as euro zone exits recession August 15, 2013 Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist at TrendMacro, a US fund advisory firm, said the euro-area GDP numbers were at odds with ECB lending data, which showed continuing reductions in credit to small and medium- sized companies. Without increasing credit to this critical sector, any return to vigorous growth was nearly impossible.
		FINANCIAL TIMES Spanish yields and the ECB’s austerity defence Ma7 6, 2013 Now we come to what happened at last week's ECB announcement and presser. Most of the subsequent commentary focused on the main refinancing rate cut, the hint of a negative deposit rate, and the commitment to spur lending to small- and medium-sized companies. But our pal Lorcan Roche Kelly of TrendMacro emphasised something different in his latest note: Most critically, in his speech at the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi also gave the longest forward commitment yet to the continuation of weekly fixed-rate full-allotment refinancing operations by the ECB: they will now continue until July 2014. As forward guidance goes, this is a pale shadow of the Fed's policies, but it is a major step for the ECB. This move is not exactly another long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). Rather, it is a long-term commitment by the ECB to provide limitless liquidity every week, on a short-term basis. It is roughly analogous to a 15-month LTRO that banks can access on a weekly basis. It renders meaningless much of the free option given by the 3-year LTROs. The two 3-year LTRO operations only extend for five and seven months, respectively, beyond the new commitment from the ECB. This may well lead to increased early repayments of the current outstanding 3-year LTROs. For banks the upside to remaining in the operations has been largely removed today.As the terms are fixed until July 2014 at the earliest, banks can now be assured of funding when they need it in the short to medium term, without being forced to access it immediately -- as happened in the 3-year LTROs. Draghi's recent comments are being mainly interpreted as a double-down on austerity. That's not wrong and it remains unfortunate, but there are several complicating factors that are nonetheless worth remembering. One is simply that Draghi probably needs to keep reiterating the importance of budget constraints for internal political reasons (giving himself cover at the Bundesbank). Another is that Draghi has long been more concerned with structural changes in labour markets and economies than in broad-based austerity for its own sake, as Lorcan notes. Draghi is generally against tax hikes, for instance, and would prefer spending cuts. Of course, this particular nuance isn't exactly comforting given the brutal choices faced by the countries on the periphery.
		BUSINESS INSIDER You Should Be Worried If The ECB Just Cuts Rates Tomorrow May 1, 2013 In a note put out yesterday, Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics has a slightly contrarian take on what the ECB should do tomorrow. First of all, he does think there will be a rate cut, whereas previously he was skeptical. BUT, he argues that a rate cut isn't the right tool for the job, and won't accomplish anything because of how broken everything is. Instead, the ECB needs to open up new channels to extend credit to Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, especially in the periphery where traditional monetary policy channels are impaired. For a broad example of what the ECB could do that would actually be effective, he writes: It may be that these moves are enough to prompt action from the ECB -- such as increasing collateral eligibility of SME credits, or so-called "structural operations" through the national central banks. If they were, then that would certainly be much more positive for the euro area than a rate cut. Bottom line: As usual with the ECB, this Thursday the rate announcement is made 45 minutes before the press conference starts. An announcement of a rate cut is a likely signal that the ECB is going to do nothing more. Conversely, no rate cut announcement should not necessarily be viewed as a time to sell. The data -- especially the inflation data -- demands a reaction from the ECB. If it -- correctly -- chooses not to use the interest rate tool, then anything else it chooses will have more of the "big bang" properties that can give the ongoing rally new legs. On the other hand, if the ECB does nothing at all, we will have the seen the top in the peripheral debt rally, at least until the ECB finally responds.
		SYDNEY MORNING HERALD Fear of run on Europe's banks March 26, 2013 Analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly, of Trend Macrolytics, said Mr Dijsselbloem's comments risked discouraging investment in Europe. ''Any reason anyone should leave more than EUR 100,000 in a euro area bank after [his] comments? Any at all?'' he tweeted.
		FINANCIAL TIMES Of credible threats and plans March 21, 2013 This is all being played out against the threat of ELA being cut from Monday. ...It's worth noting that quite a few of the people we talked to this morning didn't see it that way and expected an eventual fudge. But others we respect, such as Lorcan Roche Kelly at Trend Macro, see this as a very hard line -- why else would the ECB have mentioned Monday, 25 March 2013 in their release.
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Explaining ELA March 21, 2013 The European Central Bank Thursday...announced that if Cyprus didn't finally iron out a deal with international creditors by Monday, then the ECB would cut off emergency funding to the country's banks. "This is a hard deadline of Monday evening on the continued existence of the Cypriot banking system as we know it," said Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist at research firm Trend Macro in Ireland. "While it was never likely that it would survive intact, the ECB has this morning forced the issue."
		WALL STREET JOURNAL The Shocker from Cyprus: A Roundup of Analysts' Reactions March 17, 2013 TREND MACRO, Lorcan Roche Kelly: "Reports on depositors being in the firing line have been circulating for weeks, and so it is not a surprise that the bail-in has been announced. However, the risks -- beyond upsetting Cypriot depositors -- are unknown. The rather bold assumption on the part of the Europeans is that this will have little effect. They may well be right. There have been rumors of a depositor bail-in for weeks and there have been no signs of flight. The ECB has promised to back-stop any disruption -- that is a promise that we can rely on. However, the risk is that depositors outside Cyprus will take fright and start to leave their banks. The euro has no single treasury backing it. Therefore, more than any other currency it has to rely on trust to maintain its value. With this deal, the euro area is testing the trust of both the markets and ordinary depositors. It seems likely that it will pass the test, but the judgement is out of its hands. Bank deposit flight can be [handled]. Trust in the currency cannot so easily be restored."
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Success for Ireland in Bond Market March 13, 2013 The government hopes that the 10-year issue and another long-term offering later this year will make it eligible for help from the ECB's still-untested program of bond purchases, known as Outright Monetary Transactions, which would in turn help push its borrowing costs lower. "If there is some clarification forthcoming from the ECB as to whether Ireland has reached the bar required to qualify for OMT, then Ireland should be home and hosed on exiting the bailout program this year," said Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief European strategist at research firm TrendMacro.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Here's The Best Explanation We've Seen About The Emergency, Late-Night Plan To Restructure Irish Bailout Debt February 7, 2013 There's a debate in Ireland happening tonight designed to help reduce the massive debt burden the country is still facing since the collapse of the country's banks in the financial crisis... Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics has emailed us a fantastic explainer of what's going on in Ireland. This is the clearest explanation we've seen yet, and we're very grateful for Lorcan's clarity on this. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @lorcanrk. In the wake of the collapse of the Irish property market, two of the worst Irish banks -- Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society -- were nationalized and turned into a new institution called Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC) with the intention of working the institution down over a number of years. The new institution had funding needs of over EUR 30 billion that were met by the government -- as owner of the institution -- writing a debt instrument called a Promissory Note. This note was repoed through the Irish Central Bank through a mechanism called Extraordinary Liquidity Assistance (ELA). Under ECB rules, ELA is outside normal ECB lending and is done at a national central bank level with ECB oversight. The terms of the Promissory notes require payment at the end of each March of EUR 3.1 billion from current spending. The current government -- elected in 2011 -- promised to reform the Promissory notes to end the arrangement requiring EUR 3.1 bn annual payments. In the approach to to next payment -- due in 8 weeks the government has promised not to make the payment. Two weeks ago a government proposal to exchange the prom notes with longer term debt on the Irish Central Bank balance sheet was rejected by the ECB. Today's developments are the government trying to skin the cat another way. First, they are ending IBRC. After the passage of the legislation currently in front of the Dáil, it will no longer exist. The IBRC assets will be moved to NAMA (Ireland's bad bank). The prom note will be replaced at the Irish Central Bank with NAMA issued bonds that are covered by a government guarantee. The NAMA bonds will be structured like normal bonds -- only requiring annual interest payments until the end of their term -- and so will lead to reduced current expenditure in the short term. However, this deal still has to be given the ok from the ECB who have oversight of the Irish Central Bank. They may make their decision tomorrow, if so it will be announced by Mario Draghi at the ECB press conference at 1:30 GMT.
		BLOOMBERG ECB Said to Be Ready for New Honohan Pitch on Anglo February 6, 2013 The government and Honohan need to find a way to restructure the notes in a way that leaves the net impact on the money supply at zero. Otherwise Ireland's central bank could be accused of printing money, a policy opposed by the ECB. A central bank commitment to hold Irish government bonds for 15 years "in this case would be for fiscal policy reasons, which makes it monetary financing, which is a no-no," said Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist at Trend Macrolytics LLC.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Why The Euro Is On Such A Wild Surge Today January 30, 2013 We chatted with analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics to get his take. Well the big picture is that the ECB is the only central bank that's acting relatively "tight" right now. The Fed will be on hold for awhile. Japan is doing new easing. The Bank of England is likely to do more under Mark Carney. You get the picture. ...The LTRO paydown will cause the ECB balance sheet to shrink (!) next week. A shrinking balance sheet is rare in this day and age, but as Roche Kelly notes this shouldn't really be characterized as a tightening, since the ECB's policy stance remains the same. If banks need money, it's no more expensive than it was before, so there shouldn't be any real-world economic constraint by this balance sheet shrinkage.