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Political Pulse

December 14, 2015
Donald Luskin

Win or lose, Trump is a risk for markets, a Black Swan thatís not just going away.

Modeling the 2016 Presidential Election
November 12, 2014
Donald Luskin

You heard it here first -- GOP by 145 Electoral College votes, and congressional control too.

Mid-term Cliffhanger
September 24, 2014
Donald Luskin

41 days till we may have to wait 32 more days to know who controls the Senate.

Bully For Him
January 17, 2014
Donald Luskin

The pro-growth policy outlook has only improved with Christie's artful crisis management.

Down to the Wire, and Beyond
October 15, 2013
Donald Luskin

Almost there: another 2013 risk-event with no contagion -- plus the GOP gets a do-over.

Let's Hope the Politicians are Lying
October 7, 2013
Donald Luskin

Boehner and Obama both say we're heading for default. Game theory likely says otherwise.

Once More unto the Debt Crisis, Dear Friends
September 25, 2013
Donald Luskin

The next systemic threat? Likely less market risk and political risk here than meets the eye.

End of the Beginning for Abenomics
July 22, 2013
Donald Luskin

Abe has a strong mandate now. Free trade talks will be the first test of how he'll use it.

Oh What a Relief It Is
January 23, 2013
Donald Luskin

The GOP lays down its nuclear option of debt default. What can Washington do for an encore.

Last Day
December 31, 2012
Donald Luskin

Avoid the cliff, damage growth. Go off the cliff, kill growth. Only least-bad outcomes now.

Plan B for Better
December 20, 2012
Donald Luskin

Higher taxes, yes. But with "Plan B" the tax code will no longer be permanently temporary.

Plan B for Blame Game
December 19, 2012
Donald Luskin

A tactical retreat that could be a better last-minute safety valve as the cliff approaches

Toxic Fudge
December 17, 2012
Donald Luskin

Boehner offers hikes to tax rates and the debt ceiling. Where's the upside in that?

How the GOP Could Survive the Cliff
December 10, 2012
Donald Luskin

Passing a pre-emptive tax hike bill in the House would restore the balance of terror.

Back to the Cliff
November 28, 2012
Donald Luskin

Markets gave Washington a pass for Thanksgiving. Now, the battle of the cliff begins.

Photo-Op at the Cliff's Edge
November 19, 2012
Donald Luskin

Friday's White House Kumbaya makes a prettier media narrative, but the reality is still ugly.

My Way, or the Cliff
November 16, 2012
Donald Luskin

Obama sounds like he wants to go over the cliff. But the Petraeus matter is a new wildcard.

Mandate for Volatility
November 13, 2012
Donald Luskin

The fiscal cliff negotiations begin -- worlds collide. The market is finally waking up to the risk.

What If Obama Wins?
November 6, 2012
Donald Luskin

Close call worst of all -- if Obama thinks he has a mandate and the GOP thinks he doesn't.

What if Romney Wins?
October 23, 2012
Donald Luskin

Worst-case cliff scenarios come off the table, but considerable uncertainties would remain.

October is Half Over -- Where's the Surprise?
October 17, 2012
Donald Luskin

The race is narrowing, but Obama will probably win. The march toward the cliff starts soon.

TrendMacro's Election Model
September 28, 2012
Donald Luskin

Obama by 154 Electoral College votes. The economy isn't weak enough for Romney to win.

Step by Step, Toward the Cliff
September 25, 2012
Donald Luskin

As Romney flails, trial balloons from Washington point to volatility and bad compromises.

For Europe, It's the Politics, Stupid
June 27, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

Can a clear path to a United States of Europe be coming, with no clarity on Spain's bailout?

Light at the End of the Cliff?
June 11, 2012
Donald Luskin

If the economy is "absolutely not fine," then Congress must absolutely not let taxes rise.

A French Election Correction
April 23, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

Whether with Hollande or Sarkozy, France will support European integration and reform.

What Could Possibly Go Worng?
March 8, 2012
Donald Luskin

Crisis in Europe avoided. Now we look to the coming year-end tax/debt crisis in the US.

The French Election Connection
February 7, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly

France elects a new president on May 6. Here's everything markets need to know.

Stand Down
July 21, 2011
Donald Luskin

The Gang of Six and the McConnell compromise: paths to peace with honor in the debt war.

Chaos in Athens, Progress in Washington
June 20, 2011
Donald Luskin

A more pro-growth tone in the spending debate, and the oil peace dividend comes closer.

The Political Brick in the Wall of Worry
May 27, 2011
Donald Luskin

An upset NY election, and no credible GOP presidential bid: political risk is on the table.

Growth Wins Another Skirmish
April 11, 2011
Donald Luskin

Last week's battle over spending strengthens one of the pillars of this bull market.

The Pendulum Swings Back
November 2, 2010
Donald Luskin

The battle to extend Bush-era tax rates will be the first test for a new political alignment.

The Double-Dip Doomsday Machine
September 21, 2010
Donald Luskin

It's simple arithmetic -- failure to extend today's tax rates will cause a new recession.

Tax Cut Chicken
September 9, 2010
Donald Luskin

Forget stimulus. Focus on the high stakes poker over extending the Bush era tax rates.

Good Week for Growth
July 26, 2010
Donald Luskin

New hopes for extending the Bush tax cuts, no carbon tax, and an easy Fed.

No Protectionism Threat: Yuan To Bet?
March 18, 2010
Donald Luskin

The Schumer-Graham tariff bill is back, and China will probably blink again.

A Scott Heard 'Round the World?
January 19, 2010
Donald Luskin

A GOP Massachusetts win today would be another step down the bullish road toward political equilibrium.

America's Next Top Fed Model
July 27, 2009
Donald Luskin

Markets rightly expect Bernanke to stay, and Summers would be a destabilizing surprise.

Health Care Deform
July 16, 2009
Donald Luskin

A proposed surtax may be the kind of self-correcting policy over-reach we saw in March.

It Ain't My Job
November 10, 2008
Donald Luskin

Good news for markets -- Obama's meeting of economic icons produced exactly nothing.

Now What?
November 6, 2008
Donald Luskin
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury is still being fought.

February 5, 2008
Donald Luskin

The ascendance of Barack Obama brings anti-growth political risk into focus.

Is the Inevitable Inevitable?
December 19, 2007
Donald Luskin

A GOP victory on taxes and spending, and the emergence of Ron Paul, lowers the chances of a growth catastrophe in the 2008 election.

Best Behavior
May 22, 2007
Donald Luskin

It's not the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the growth boat.

Upside Surprise on Trade
May 14, 2007
Donald Luskin

A Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.

Washington on Hold
May 10, 2007
Donald Luskin

The two forces most likely to derail the economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put themselves on the sidelines.

Tax Wars
January 22, 2007
Donald Luskin

The era of tax cuts is over, and a new era of tax risk has begun.

Net Neutrality Not Neutered
December 14, 2006
Donald Luskin

Two big defeats for "net neutrality" regulation don't make a deregulatory trend.

Stock Market Exit Poll
November 15, 2006
Donald Luskin

Equity sectors are already responding to the Democratic congressional sweep.

Don't Panic
November 8, 2006
Donald Luskin

The Democrats did better than expected, but it's not a lurch toward anti-growth policy.

Speaker Pelosi
October 12, 2006
Donald Luskin

Long-term, the GOP losing congressional control may be best for growth.

Tax Cut Rashomon
April 11, 2006
Donald Luskin

Even a call from the President couldn't get the 2003 tax cuts extended last week, but it's not over yet.

Two to Tangle the Tax Cuts
April 10, 2006
Donald Luskin

How Chuck Grassley and Bill Thomas let a personal feud put growth at risk.

Tax Cut Extension: The Deal Takes Shape
April 6, 2006
Donald Luskin

While partisans are distracted by immigration, tax reconciliation is quietly moving forward.

Extending Visibility
February 17, 2006
Donald Luskin

Chances for extension of the 2003 tax cuts have gotten better -- and markets are beginning to see it.

Quick Takes from Washington
February 2, 2006
Donald Luskin

Extending the tax cuts and the GOP majority, new Fed governors, new CEA chair.

Tax Bill Game Theory, and Why It Matters
December 8, 2005
Donald Luskin

More thrills and spills on the way to extension of the 2003 tax cuts -- and a remembrance of what those cuts have done for the economy.

Heading into the Tax Bill Endgame
December 2, 2005
Donald Luskin

Stocks are priced neither for the best nor the worst policy outcomes.

A Whiff of Windfall Profits Taxes
November 17, 2005
Donald Luskin

Extending the 2003 tax cuts is now complicated by an accounting penalty on big oil.

Beyond Disappointment
November 11, 2005
Donald Luskin

Why do stocks hang tough while the Republican pro-growth consensus continues to unravel?

A Setback for Extending the 2003 Tax Cuts
November 9, 2005
Donald Luskin

Grassley's retreat to only one-year extension may be part of a broader retreat for pro-growth policy.

Quag Miers for the Fed
October 24, 2005
Donald Luskin

Handicapping how a dysfunctional White House will select the next Greenspan.

Monetary Step Forward, Fiscal Step Backward
September 29, 2005
Donald Luskin

Grassley puts tax cuts at risk, while Greenspan gives himself one more vote.

The McCain Mutiny
September 23, 2005
Donald Luskin

A deficit hawk has emerged as the unlikely man at the margin on tax cuts.

Waiting for a "Swift Boats Moment"
April 7, 2005
Donald Luskin

Undervalued stocks need a catalyst that clears the overhang of tax policy risk.

Buried Alive?
March 3, 2005
Donald Luskin

Social Security reform is tied to the Bush growth agenda -- and both are still in play.

Pyrrhic Victory?
February 23, 2005
Donald Luskin

Bush risks throwing away his tax cuts in a gambit to win Social Security reform.

The 3% Finesse
February 8, 2005
Donald Luskin

Bush's misunderstood benefit offset could be the key to enacting personal accounts in Social Security.

The Purple Finger of Fate
Thursday, February 3, 2005
Donald Luskin

The successful Iraq election opens a window for pro-growth policy success.

Policy Paranoia
January 24, 2005
Donald Luskin

Stocks are exaggerating the risk that the Social Security debate is getting out of control.

Next Year's Miracle
December 14, 2004
Donald Luskin

Here's the likely shape of Bush's big bet for 2005: Social Security reform with private accounts.

Y2K Then, EY04 Now
October 25, 2004
Donald Luskin

Democrats say they will litigate the election -- and markets believe them.

Many A Slip
October 1, 2004
Donald Luskin

Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time to start whispering about October 8.

The Bush-Bashing Bubble Has Burst
September 7, 2004
Donald Luskin

The markets and the economy may finally be getting visibility on a Bush victory.

Not So Nifty Fifty-Fifty
August 13, 2004
Donald Luskin

We're at the point of maximum electoral uncertainty -- and it may continue until well after the election.

Iowa -- Who's Upset?
January 22, 2004
Donald Luskin

Kerry's Iowa surprise changes the market's perceptions of electoral risks for the economy.

Errors All Around
December 4, 2003
David Gitlitz

Since the tax cuts, the administration's policy moves have given markets little to cheer.

Frustrated and Concerned
October 21, 2003
Donald Luskin

John Snow said something sensible yesterday. That begs the question -- why?

The Potential Price of Pandering
October 17, 2003
Donald Luskin

The administration's politicized dollar policy risks the market's confidence in economic recovery.

Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
September 25, 2003
Donald Luskin

Political posturing and unsound economics threatens the expansion.

Another Scandal
September 4, 2003
Donald Luskin

Spitzer's new front is probably a non-event -- but here are the risks you might not have considered.

Mankiw Very Much
June 13, 2003
Donald Luskin

Dr. Mankiw looks like he'll be a valuable pro-growth member of the Bush team.

Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Donald Luskin and David Gitlitz

Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.

Self-inflicted Damage in the Tax Wars
April 30, 2003
Donald Luskin

If the administration is going to sell its tax-cuts, it had better change its pitch.

Half a Loaf?
April 17, 2003
David Gitlitz

The shape of possible tax-cut compromise is beginning to emerge from the fog of legislative war.

The Hanging-Chad Tax-Cut
April 10, 2003
Donald Luskin

The market doesn't want to wait for Bush's tax-cuts -- but a rush to cut a lousy deal is even worse.

Notes from the West Wing
April 3, 2003
Donald Luskin

The war comes first. Nevertheless, the market underestimates the chances for pro-growth tax-cuts.

Going for Broke?
February 28, 2003
Donald Luskin

The paradox of Bush's strategy is that he's ramping up political risk as his approval ratings decline.

Lifting the Fog of War
February 19, 2003
David Gitlitz

Markets are not comforted by deferring the decision to go to war -- markets want resolution, and that's probably not far away.

Born-Again Growth Advocacy
January 8, 2003
David Gitlitz and Donald Luskin

Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an important pro-growth initiative.

A Lott for Markets to Think About
December 16, 2002
David Gitlitz and Donald Luskin

There are both big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis -- while we wait, there's big uncertainty.

Bush's Growth Deficit 
December 11, 2002
Donald Luskin

If Stephen Friedman is out of step with Bush's economic ideology, why did Bush pick him in the first place?

Why Bother?
December 9, 2002
David Gitlitz

Bush's selection of Snow and Friedman dashes hopes that the administration will adopt a strong pro-growth policy agenda.

Don't Get Swept Away by the Sweep
November 6, 2002
Donald Luskin

The GOP sweep lessens the odds of two years of worsening policy stagnation. But it's not exactly a third term for Ronald Reagan.

Is Washington Listening?
September 16, 2002
Donald Luskin

The war on terrorism has silenced debate over the economy. That's bad for all of us.

Looking More and More Like Bush 1.0
July 19, 2002
David Gitlitz

Like his father, President Bush doesn't seem to have "the vision thing" when it comes to the economy and the markets.

Stock Options Expense: One Step Ahead of the Law
July 16, 2002
Donald Luskin and Reuven Brenner

Coca Cola and Washington Post may be making a virtue of necessity by volunteering to expense options -- but they're an example of how free markets can enforce corporate accountability.

Triple Witching Hour for the Stock Options Tax-Hike
July 15, 2002
Donald Luskin

In the super-charged anti-business atmosphere of Washington, the dreaded Levin-McCain stock options bill -- S.1940 -- is at-the-money.

Killing Capitalism in Order to Save It
July 12, 2002
Donald Luskin

Whatís really scary isnít the corporate scandals, but what government will do to fix the problem.

Beware of Senators Bearing Tax Hikes
March 15, 2002
Donald Luskin
Don't kid yourself that S.1940 is about earnings transparency. It's all about hidden taxes.

The Greenspan Gadfly
March 1, 2002
Donald Luskin

The Fedís chief congressional critic may be a little off the wall, but heís asking some interesting questions.

The Wrong Medicine
Donald Luskin
February 15, 2002

Intrusive government helped kill the tech boom. And now government thinks it can fix things.

A Bipartisan Bungle
October 25, 2001
David Gitlitz

The so-called "stimulus" package working its way through Washington may never become law -- but if it does, it will be a monument to compromise, not to economic growth.

Trouble Next Door
October 16, 2001
David Gitlitz

With comic relief from a Keystone Cops performance by Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, the Bush Administration is botching its chance to implement pro-growth tax policies.

A Stimulus to Folly
October 10, 2001
David Gitlitz
Why, with his 90% approval rating and his masterful handling of the war on terrorism, is President Bush letting Robert Rubin design fiscal stimulus policies?

Copyright 2001 through 2015 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
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