WASHINGTON THAT MOVE MARKETS
Modeling the 2016 Presidential Election
November 12, 2014
You heard it here first -- GOP by 145 Electoral College votes, and
congressional control too.
September 24, 2014
41 days till we may have to wait 32 more days to know who controls the
Bully For Him
January 17, 2014
The pro-growth policy outlook has only improved with Christie's artful
Down to the Wire, and Beyond
October 15, 2013
Almost there: another 2013 risk-event with no contagion -- plus the GOP
gets a do-over.
Let's Hope the Politicians
October 7, 2013
Boehner and Obama both say we're heading for default. Game theory likely
Once More unto the Debt
Crisis, Dear Friends
September 25, 2013
The next systemic threat? Likely less market risk and political risk
here than meets the eye.
End of the Beginning for
July 22, 2013
Abe has a strong mandate now. Free trade talks will be the first test of
how he'll use it.
Oh What a Relief It Is
January 23, 2013
The GOP lays down its nuclear option of debt default. What can
Washington do for an encore.
December 31, 2012
Avoid the cliff, damage growth. Go off the cliff, kill growth. Only
least-bad outcomes now.
Plan B for Better
December 20, 2012
Higher taxes, yes. But with "Plan B" the tax code will no longer be
Plan B for Blame Game
December 19, 2012
A tactical retreat that could be a better last-minute safety valve as
the cliff approaches
December 17, 2012
Boehner offers hikes to tax rates and the debt ceiling. Where's the
upside in that?
How the GOP Could Survive
December 10, 2012
Passing a pre-emptive tax hike bill in the House would restore the
balance of terror.
Back to the Cliff
November 28, 2012
Markets gave Washington a pass for Thanksgiving. Now, the battle of the
Photo-Op at the Cliff's Edge
November 19, 2012
Friday's White House Kumbaya makes a prettier media narrative, but the
reality is still ugly.
My Way, or the Cliff
November 16, 2012
Obama sounds like he wants to go over the cliff. But the Petraeus matter
is a new wildcard.
Mandate for Volatility
November 13, 2012
The fiscal cliff negotiations begin -- worlds collide. The market is
finally waking up to the risk.
What If Obama Wins?
November 6, 2012
Close call worst of all -- if Obama thinks he has a mandate and the GOP
thinks he doesn't.
What if Romney Wins?
October 23, 2012
Worst-case cliff scenarios come off the table, but considerable
uncertainties would remain.
October is Half Over --
Where's the Surprise?
October 17, 2012
The race is narrowing, but Obama will probably win. The march toward the
cliff starts soon.
TrendMacro's Election Model
September 28, 2012
Obama by 154 Electoral College votes. The economy isn't weak enough for
Romney to win.
Step by Step, Toward the
September 25, 2012
As Romney flails, trial balloons from Washington point to volatility and
For Europe, It's the
June 27, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Can a clear path to a United States of Europe be coming, with no clarity
on Spain's bailout?
Light at the End of the
June 11, 2012
If the economy is "absolutely not fine," then Congress must absolutely
not let taxes rise.
A French Election
April 23, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Whether with Hollande or Sarkozy, France will support European
integration and reform.
What Could Possibly Go Worng?
March 8, 2012
Crisis in Europe avoided. Now we look to the coming year-end tax/debt
crisis in the US.
The French Election
February 7, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly
France elects a new president on May 6. Here's
everything markets need to know.
July 21, 2011
The Gang of Six and the McConnell compromise: paths to peace with honor
in the debt war.
Chaos in Athens, Progress in
June 20, 2011
A more pro-growth tone in the spending debate, and the oil peace
dividend comes closer.
The Political Brick in the
Wall of Worry
May 27, 2011
An upset NY election, and no credible GOP presidential bid: political
risk is on the table.
Growth Wins Another Skirmish
April 11, 2011
Last week's battle over spending strengthens one of the pillars of this
The Pendulum Swings Back
November 2, 2010
The battle to extend Bush-era tax rates will be the first test for a new
The Double-Dip Doomsday
September 21, 2010
It's simple arithmetic -- failure to extend
today's tax rates will cause a new recession.
Tax Cut Chicken
September 9, 2010
Forget stimulus. Focus on the high stakes poker over extending the Bush
era tax rates.
Good Week for Growth
July 26, 2010
for extending the Bush tax cuts, no carbon tax, and an easy Fed.
No Protectionism Threat:
Yuan To Bet?
March 18, 2010
Schumer-Graham tariff bill is back, and China will probably blink again.
A Scott Heard 'Round the
January 19, 2010
A GOP Massachusetts win today would be another step down the bullish
road toward political equilibrium.
America's Next Top Fed Model
July 27, 2009
Markets rightly expect Bernanke to stay, and Summers would be a
Health Care Deform
July 16, 2009
A proposed surtax may be the kind of self-correcting policy over-reach
we saw in March.
It Ain't My Job
November 10, 2008
Good news for markets -- Obama's meeting of economic icons produced
November 6, 2008
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury
is still being fought.
February 5, 2008
The ascendance of Barack Obama brings
anti-growth political risk into focus.
Is the Inevitable
December 19, 2007
A GOP victory on taxes and spending, and the
emergence of Ron Paul, lowers the chances of a growth catastrophe in the
May 22, 2007
the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the
Upside Surprise on Trade
May 14, 2007
Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.
Washington on Hold
May 10, 2007
The two forces most likely to derail the
economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put
themselves on the sidelines.
January 22, 2007
The era of tax cuts is over, and a new era
of tax risk has begun.
Net Neutrality Not
December 14, 2006
defeats for "net neutrality" regulation don't make a deregulatory trend.
Stock Market Exit Poll
November 15, 2006
sectors are already responding to the Democratic congressional sweep.
November 8, 2006
The Democrats did better than expected, but it's
not a lurch toward anti-growth policy.
October 12, 2006
Long-term, the GOP losing congressional control
may be best for growth.
Tax Cut Rashomon
April 11, 2006
Even a call from the President couldn't get the
2003 tax cuts extended last week, but it's not over yet.
Two to Tangle the Tax Cuts
April 10, 2006
How Chuck Grassley and Bill Thomas let a
personal feud put growth at risk.
Tax Cut Extension: The Deal
April 6, 2006
partisans are distracted by immigration, tax reconciliation is quietly
February 17, 2006
extension of the 2003 tax cuts have gotten better -- and markets are
beginning to see it.
Quick Takes from Washington
February 2, 2006
Extending the tax cuts and the GOP majority, new
Fed governors, new CEA
Tax Bill Game Theory, and Why It Matters
December 8, 2005
More thrills and spills on the way to extension
of the 2003 tax cuts -- and a remembrance of what those cuts have done for
Heading into the Tax Bill Endgame
December 2, 2005
Stocks are priced neither for the best nor the
worst policy outcomes.
Whiff of Windfall Profits Taxes
November 17, 2005
Extending the 2003 tax cuts is now complicated
by an accounting penalty on big oil.
November 11, 2005
Why do stocks hang tough while the Republican
pro-growth consensus continues to unravel?
Setback for Extending the 2003 Tax Cuts
November 9, 2005
Grassley's retreat to only one-year extension
may be part of a broader retreat for pro-growth policy.
for the Fed
October 24, 2005
Handicapping how a dysfunctional White House
will select the next Greenspan.
Monetary Step Forward, Fiscal Step Backward
September 29, 2005
Grassley puts tax cuts at risk, while Greenspan
gives himself one more vote.
The McCain Mutiny
September 23, 2005
A deficit hawk has emerged as the unlikely man
at the margin on tax cuts.
Waiting for a "Swift Boats Moment"
April 7, 2005
Undervalued stocks need a catalyst that clears
the overhang of tax policy risk.
March 3, 2005
Social Security reform is tied to the Bush
growth agenda -- and both are still in play.
February 23, 2005
throwing away his tax cuts in a gambit to win Social Security reform.
The 3% Finesse
February 8, 2005
Bush's misunderstood benefit offset could be the
key to enacting personal accounts in Social Security.
The Purple Finger of Fate
Thursday, February 3, 2005
Iraq election opens a window for pro-growth policy success.
January 24, 2005
Stocks are exaggerating the risk that the Social
Security debate is getting out of control.
Next Year's Miracle
December 14, 2004
Here's the likely
shape of Bush's big bet for 2005: Social Security reform with private
Y2K Then, EY04 Now
October 25, 2004
Democrats say they will litigate the election --
and markets believe them.
Many A Slip
October 1, 2004
Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time
to start whispering about October 8.
The Bush-Bashing Bubble Has Burst
September 7, 2004
The markets and the economy may
finally be getting visibility on a Bush victory.
Not So Nifty Fifty-Fifty
August 13, 2004
We're at the point of maximum electoral
uncertainty -- and it may continue until well after the election.
Iowa -- Who's Upset?
January 22, 2004
Kerry's Iowa surprise changes the market's
perceptions of electoral risks for the economy.
Errors All Around
December 4, 2003
Since the tax cuts, the administration's policy
moves have given markets little to cheer.
Frustrated and Concerned
October 21, 2003
said something sensible yesterday. That begs the question -- why?
The Potential Price of Pandering
October 17, 2003
The administration's politicized dollar policy
risks the market's confidence in economic recovery.
Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
September 25, 2003
Political posturing and unsound economics
threatens the expansion.
September 4, 2003
Spitzer's new front is probably a non-event --
but here are the risks you might not have considered.
Mankiw Very Much
June 13, 2003
Dr. Mankiw looks like he'll be a valuable
pro-growth member of the Bush team.
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are
coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.
Self-inflicted Damage in the Tax Wars
April 30, 2003
If the administration is going to sell its
tax-cuts, it had better change its pitch.
Half a Loaf?
April 17, 2003
The shape of possible tax-cut compromise is
beginning to emerge from the fog of legislative war.
The Hanging-Chad Tax-Cut
April 10, 2003
The market doesn't want to wait for Bush's
tax-cuts -- but a rush to cut a lousy deal is even worse.
Notes from the West Wing
April 3, 2003
The war comes first. Nevertheless, the market underestimates the chances
for pro-growth tax-cuts.
Going for Broke?
February 28, 2003
The paradox of Bush's strategy is that he's
ramping up political risk as his approval ratings decline.
Lifting the Fog of War
February 19, 2003
Markets are not comforted by deferring the
decision to go to war -- markets want resolution, and that's probably not
January 8, 2003
David Gitlitz and
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an
important pro-growth initiative.
A Lott for
Markets to Think
December 16, 2002
David Gitlitz and
There are both
big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis --
while we wait, there's big uncertainty.
Bush's Growth Deficit
December 11, 2002
If Stephen Friedman is out of step with Bush's
economic ideology, why did Bush pick him in the first place?
December 9, 2002
Bush's selection of Snow and Friedman dashes
hopes that the administration will adopt a strong pro-growth policy agenda.
Don't Get Swept Away by the Sweep
November 6, 2002
The GOP sweep lessens the odds of two years of
worsening policy stagnation. But it's not exactly a third term for Ronald
Is Washington Listening?
September 16, 2002
The war on terrorism has silenced debate over
the economy. That's bad for all of us.
Looking More and More Like
July 19, 2002
Like his father, President Bush doesn't seem to have "the vision thing"
when it comes to the economy and the markets.
Stock Options Expense: One
Step Ahead of the Law
July 16, 2002
Donald Luskin and
Cola and Washington Post may be making a virtue of necessity by volunteering
to expense options -- but they're an example of how free markets can enforce
Triple Witching Hour for the
Stock Options Tax-Hike
July 15, 2002
super-charged anti-business atmosphere of Washington, the dreaded
Levin-McCain stock options bill -- S.1940 -- is at-the-money.
Killing Capitalism in Order to
July 12, 2002
really scary isnít the corporate scandals, but what government will do to
fix the problem.
Beware of Senators Bearing
March 15, 2002
yourself that S.1940 is about earnings transparency. It's all about hidden
March 1, 2002
The Fedís chief congressional critic may be a
little off the wall, but heís asking some interesting questions.
February 15, 2002
Intrusive government helped kill the tech
boom. And now government thinks it can fix things.
October 25, 2001
"stimulus" package working its way through Washington may never become
law -- but if it does, it will be a monument to compromise, not to
Trouble Next Door
October 16, 2001
With comic relief from a
Keystone Cops performance by Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, the Bush
Administration is botching its chance to implement pro-growth tax policies.
A Stimulus to Folly
October 10, 2001
Why, with his 90% approval rating and his
masterful handling of the war on terrorism, is President Bush letting
Robert Rubin design fiscal stimulus policies?