Client home
Public home
About us
Contact us
Archives
Client Reports:
Donald Luskin
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Strategy dashboard

Data Insights

Valuation Tools
Recommended reading
TrendMacro in the news
Follow on Twitter
ARCHIVES
Market Calls
PUTTING IDEAS TO WORK IN THE CHALLENGE OF ASSET ALLOCATION AND CAPITAL COMMITMENT

US Fixed Income Strategy: The Fed Irrelevancy Hypothesis
July 2, 2013
Donald Luskin

QE has no effect on yields. They've been rising for a year because systemic risk is lower.

2013 Outlook: Think Globally, Shrink Locally
January 14, 2013
Donald Luskin

US stocks will pay as we move off the supply side, and the rest of the world moves toward it.

Positioning for the Fiscal Cliff
October 3, 2012
Donald Luskin

Markets aren't pricing the coming volatility, but protection from it is eminently feasible.

Can Stocks Keep Melting Up?
February 10, 2012
Donald Luskin

If risk aversion retreats as much as it did a year ago, stocks would be 34% higher.

MARKET CALLS
The bin Laden Commodities Crash
May 6, 2011
Donald Luskin

A speculative reaction -- and a downpayment on the peace dividend in the War on Terror.

Gold Hits Our $1500 Price Target
April 20, 2011
Donald Luskin

We're still bullish on gold, but it's not the "conviction trade" it was at $771.

Gold is a Hold
December 20, 2010
Donald Luskin
Not a buy, not a sell. The best bull case has weakened, but other upside factors are in play.

Stock Outlook: Differences Make a Difference
November 10, 2010
Donald Luskin

Upgrading our view on stocks and the economy, with no crazily optimistic assumptions.

Fixed Income Strategy: Take The Low Road
June 16, 2010
Donald Luskin

The Fed is stuck where it is this year and next: so bet on low yields and low quality.

More Upside for Gold
June 10, 2010
Donald Luskin

The future for gold, and what an all-time high gold price is saying about the future

Under-Seasoned
January 15, 2010
Donald Luskin

Expectations are so elevated, this earnings season almost has to be a disappointment.

Monster Rally
August 31, 2009
Donald Luskin

Stocks will have to obey Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."

Great… Now What?
August 21, 2009
Donald Luskin

A round-up of our strategic views now that the global economy has hit bottom.

Inflation Inflection
March 25, 2008
Donald Luskin

The Fed pulls back from the inflationary brink, and we call the top on "inflation plays."

The Other Winners in the Credit Crisis
February 19, 2008
Donald Luskin

If you didn't short risky credits, being long inflation has been the place to be.

Time to Earn the Panic Premium
November 13, 2007
Donald Luskin

Stocks are the king of carry trades once again.

Burned Out
August 7, 2007
Donald Luskin

Panic was ignited by Bill Gross and it burned out with Jim Cramer.

Doves Eat Crow
June 6, 2007
Donald Luskin

They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.

Inflation Plays Revisited
May 31, 2007
Donald Luskin

The worst case inflation risk is off the table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.

Update to Our US Equity Outlook
April 13, 2007
Donald Luskin

The correction was a correction -- it has about run its course, with inflation plays in the lead.

Are We Scared Yet?
February 28, 2007
Donald Luskin

We got the correction we expected -- but is that really all it is?

Enough Good News for a Correction
February 16, 2007
Donald Luskin

With Bernanke on indefinite hold and tax risk reduced, what's left to rally stocks?

Update to our Equity Sector Forecasts
January 11, 2007
Donald Luskin

Tech and Telecom driven by Democrats -- Energy and Materials driven by seemingly everything.

It Was a Very Good Year
December 29, 2006
Donald Luskin

We were right that stocks would dominate in 2006 -- the trick in 2007 will be to call the top.

Update to Our US Bond Forecast
August 25, 2006
David Gitlitz

Bonds are very vulnerable: they're tracking Fed rhetoric, not reality.

Update to Our US Equity Forecast
August 23, 2006
Donald Luskin

Why the bullish short term can only be so good, and why the bearish long term might only be so bad.

Bernanke's Quagmire
August 7, 2006
Donald Luskin

The Fed will cause a real recession by trying to prevent an illusory one.

A Question of Value
February 14, 2005
Donald Luskin

Cheap stocks in a robust economic environment are an outstanding risk/return play.

Don't Miss the Obvious
November 2, 2004
Donald Luskin

A bubble of fear has driven stocks to deep undervaluation, and that bubble is about to burst.

Tech: A Trading Value Play
July 20, 2004
Donald Luskin

Back at the bottom of the trading range, the Technology Sector looks cheap in relative and absolute terms.

On March CPI
April 19, 2004
David Gitlitz

Bonds face the reality of the awakening of a long-slumbering Fed.

Tech: Back in Harm's Way?
April 8, 2004
Donald Luskin

With new political uncertainties and no valuation tailwinds, the tech sector is suddenly not so compelling.

A "Real" Dollar Rally? Don’t Bank On It
February 19, 2004
David Gitlitz

Until the Fed reverses its inflationary course, the dollar is headed nowhere but lower.

A Tricky Mixture
February 10, 2004
Donald Luskin

Equity sectors are being driven by both growth and inflation.

A Buyable Dip
January 29, 2004
Donald Luskin

Rising rates here won't be bad for stocks, knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.

Bond Bubble Sure To Burst, But When? 
January 13, 2004
David Gitlitz

A questionable jobs number has given the bond market a questionable reprieve.

The Best Materials
December 9, 2003
Donald Luskin

In stocks, a new fastest horse emerges as the reflationary expansion turns inflationary.

Investing at the Brink
October 30, 2003
Donald Luskin

Picking the winners and losers as the Fed sleepwalks at the edge of inflation.

Treasuries: Face the Inevitable
October 2, 2003
David Gitlitz

Accelerating growth and inflation risk mean that Treasuries are headed for a big fall.

Betting on Growth
July 11, 2003
David Gitlitz

The financial markets appear poised for a significant growth rebound, but interest rate futures are lagging behind.

JGB Sell-Off: The Real Deal?
July 3, 2003
David Gitlitz

Japanese government bonds take a tumble, but without monetary reflation, they may not have much further to go.

Bond Market Blow-Off
June 20, 2003
David Gitlitz

Treasuries are finally starting to get real about growth prospects and inflation risk.

Four Pillars of Wisdom
June 20, 2003
Donald Luskin

Valuation, monetary policy and tax policy are all in bull-mode. But there's a fourth factor.

A Bounce for Gold
April 9, 2003
David Gitlitz

With war-fear trades unwound and the Fed still committed to fighting deflation, gold has more upside than downside.

W's Bottom
March 24, 2003
Donald Luskin

The bears get their say this week as the war gets real -- but markets have seen the worst.

Good Things
March 21, 2003
David Gitlitz

It's time for the recovery of risk tolerance, and that means more bad news for Treasuries.

The Tech Recovery -- But...
December 6, 2002
Donald Luskin

Is the NASDAQ saying that tech is back, or just that investors are now more risk tolerant?

Tech Out of Whack, Once Again
November 25, 2002
Donald Luskin

In the last month's recovery, technology stocks have become extremely overvalued relative to the rest of the market.

Harvey, We Hardly Knew Ye  
November 13, 2002
Donald Luskin

Harvey Pitt and Robert Herdman were helping companies transition to higher levels of regulatory compliance -- it will be a riskier market without them.

Return to Normalcy
November 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

A bottomless tech pit masks an overall stabilization in earnings and expectations.

Until Intel
October 16, 2002
Donald Luskin

Earnings season was full of pleasant surprises -- until Intel. But was Intel's miss really a surprise.

Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
Donald Luskin and David Gitlitz

Capital markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.

Q1 2000 Upside Down?
October 1, 2002
Donald Luskin

Learning about what hopefully is 2002's bottom by looking at 2000's top.

Survival of the Fiscally Fittest
September 30, 2002
Donald Luskin

Technology companies lacking loads of cash and ample market share face a real threat of extinction.

What's Ahead for Bonds?
September 27, 2002
David Gitlitz

The pressure driving up long Treasuries is abating -- but so far there's no pressure for them to come back down.

Let's Play Survivor
September 24, 2002
Donald Luskin

It's now a game of life and death in techland. For most portfolio managers, what counts is picking the best survivors.

Are Stocks Really Cheap?
September 6, 2002
Donald Luskin

Don't worry that price/earnings ratios still seem too high for a bear market trough -- they're not. 

CEO Certifications: 16,000 Unexploded Landmines
August 14, 2002
Donald Luskin

Today's deadline is being portrayed as a non-event -- but the certification requirement is worse than you think.

Lifeline Cisco
August 7, 2002
Donald Luskin

It may no longer be a "wealth creation machine," but Cisco is going to keep Silicon Valley alive for at least another quarter.

The Earnings Party Where Nobody Came
August 2, 2002
Donald Luskin

The strange dynamics of the past earnings season -- upside surprises, downside revisions, and an uptick for tech.

Eyeing the Hurricane
August 2, 2002
Donald Luskin

The market's "reflexive" spiral has burned itself out for the moment -- leaving the S&P 500 still significantly undervalued.

Extremes
July 24, 2002
Donald Luskin

Stocks are extremely cheap and extremely destabilized. But taking a long-term view -- they may really be extremely normal.

Dam Lies?
July 17, 2002
Donald Luskin

When the Treasury Undersecretary says the market is overvalued, you'd better listen -- because the Bush administration is making it so.

A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002
Donald Luskin and David Gitlitz

In tech, recovery is elusive and stocks are still rich. The Old Economy is now the engine of recovery -- and it's cheap.

The End of the World[Com]
June 26, 2002
Donald Luskin

The latest accounting bombshell will have investors wondering "what is reality?" It could create a great buying opportunity.

Earth to Techstocks: "Your 15 Minutes Are Up"
June 19, 2002
Donald Luskin

Oracle beats, but the tech sector will still get beat up. The focus of economic recovery is elsewhere.

Normal Valuation: Where Do We Go from Here?
June 11, 2002
Donald Luskin

The overall market is normally valued for the first time in 5-1/2 years and earnings recovery is at hand -- what are the risks?

Intel: No News is Big News
June 7, 2002
Donald Luskin

Intel's blockbuster guidance revision shouldn't have been a surprise -- but it may signal the beginning of the end for whacky techstock valuations.

Return to Normalcy?
June 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

The equity market has finally returned to a normal level of earnings-based valuation... but what's normal? And will the earnings be there?

Into the Valley of Death Rides Cisco
May 8, 2002
Donald Luskin

Cannon to the right of them, cannon to the left of them -- Cisco's report won't be enough to save tech's earnings season.

Dollar Daze
May 7, 2002
David Gitlitz

The dollar is in a positive transition from excessive scarcity to a strong -- but non-deflationary -- position

Mind the Gap
April 24, 2002
Donald Luskin

The economy still can't generate the earnings recovery that techstocks need. But it's time to take some more profits off the table.

Tech Hits the Wall
April 3, 2002
Donald Luskin

Pass the "V"-agra! The steady march of upward earnings revisions from the September lows has stalled out.

BoJ Watch: The Incomprehensible Mr. Hayami
March 28, 2002
David Gitlitz

The BoJ's chief provides a grim reminder of the tremendous institutional obstacles to anti-deflationary policies.

The NASDAQ's Wyle E. Coyote Recovery
March 21, 2002
Donald Luskin

There's lots of happy-talk about recovery. But we still say the NASDAQ is fighting the tides of value, risk and history.

BoJ Watch: The Yen Paradox
March 8, 2002
David Gitlitz

How come the yen is surging just when the BoJ promises to reflate?

A Gnash Equilibrium?
March 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

Stocks have been in a violent trading range -- valuation risks still cap the upside, and eternally springing hopes for a "V" recovery provide the floor.

BoJ Watch: Climbing on Board
March 1, 2002
David Gitlitz

At last the stars are aligning for deflation relief in Japan. That should spell more trouble soon for JGB's.

BoJ Watch: Encouraging Signs
February 19, 2002
David Gitlitz

President Bush's Japan visit appears to have provided important impetus for a reflationary push.

BoJ Watch: Putting on the JGB Short Trade
February 5, 2002
David Gitlitz

A marginal shift against expectations for sustained yen deflation is creating opportunities to short the Japanese government bond.

On the Road to Equilibrium
February 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

The markets are still out of whack, but the worst excesses of misvaluation have been repaired.

BoJ Watch: A Pause On the Yen’s Downhill Road
January 22, 2002
David Gitlitz

Saber-rattling by Asian neighbors has made Japanese officials clam-up on Yen depreciation -- but it's still destined to go lower.

Don't Blame the Long Bond!
January 7, 2002
Donald Luskin

The huge gap between bond yields and the "earnings yield" of stocks is all across the curve.

A Little Problem of Reality
January 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

The stock market is off with a bang for the new year. Can the real world possibly keep up?

Rebalancing Act
December 20, 2001
Donald Luskin

Expect volatility: tomorrow all the major indexes rebalance -- so that means that all the major indexers will rebalance, too.

The Yield Gap, Sector by Sector
December 19, 2001
Donald Luskin

"V"-mania has afflicted technology stocks -- that's an opportunity both for asset allocators and sector allocators. 

BOJ Watch: The Falling Yen
December 17, 2001
David Gitlitz

Speculation about a forthcoming anti-deflation policy initiative in Japan
continues to mount.

Vay Out of Vack -- Even for a "V"
December 10, 2001
Donald Luskin

Unless a "V" recovery va-va-va-vooms into earnings and reflation hard and fast, we've got an unbalanced market that favors a shift out of tech stocks and into bonds.

It Could Be Worse... But That Doesn't Mean It'll Get Better
December 3, 2001
Donald Luskin

We've rallied back from death's door -- but we're still well within the context of recession.

Looking at the Record
November 28, 2001
Donald Luskin

How have the investment themes I've discussed in my SmartMoney.com column panned out?

Japan: Opportunity in Chaos
November 27, 2001
David Gitlitz

A real anti-deflationary policy thrust might finally be in sight in Japan, giving rise to compelling investment opportunities.

Cisco’s Twelve-Step Program for Recovering Techstocks
November 6, 2001

Donald Luskin
Last night we saw a new John Chambers and a new Cisco -- with a new confidence born of having confessed the worst. But the market may not like the truth.

Portfolio Secrets of Neutron Jack
October 25, 2001
Donald Luskin

In hard times, the most powerful companies don't just survive. They get stronger. And those are the stocks you want.

Uncle Sam Wants You... To Make Your Quarter!
October 19, 2001
Donald Luskin

It's a CEO's patriotic duty in time of war. And in war, truth is always the first victim.

Theme Song: It Jihad To Be You
October 18, 2001
Donald Luskin

How to play the defense theme -- and some thoughts about when to stop playing it.

Sky High Valuations -- From Denial to Bargaining
October 3, 2001
Donald Luskin

You can tell yourself that today's price earnings multiples are so high because of low interest rates. Or you can face the truth. Your call...

The Jihad Portfolio Marches On
October 2, 2001
Donald Luskin

As America gears up for war, we keep on gearing up a portfolio designed to go to war, too.

Introducing the Jihad Portfolio
October 1, 2001
Donald Luskin

It's always a war out there for investors -- the difference is, now it's a real one. Ignore that reality at your peril.

Why Won't Valuations Come Down? They Will!
September 28, 2001
Donald Luskin

The S&P 500 is still priced for irrational exuberance. And denial is a ribber in Egypt.

Too Cheap?
September 26, 2001
David Gitlitz

Stocks may be getting cheaper in terms of some valuation measures -- but not in terms of the market's willingness to bear risk.

Sweet Nothing
September 26, 2001
Donald Luskin

Yesterday the world stopped and took a breath -- for the first time in two weeks. It was wonderful!

The Week Ahead
September 17, 2001
Donald Luskin

An analytical framework for understanding the markets in one of history's riskiest weeks.

Aftermath of Atrocity
September 14, 2001
David Gitlitz

The good news -- the dollar and the US markets are still safe havens, and the long bear market has already wrung out a lot of risk exposure.

Get Over It!
September 11, 2001
Donald Luskin

The bear market won't be over till investors are honest with themselves about the post-boom-and-bust realities.

When Booms Go Bust
September 10, 2001
Donald Luskin

This is no ordinary business cycle. It's more like a business cyclone -- and policy response had better realize that!

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy
September 7, 2001
Donald Luskin

Oh boy. The US government doesn't want to break up Microsoft. Oh boy. Intel affirms in the midrange of its guidance. Oh boy.

Work Hard for the Money
September 6, 2001
Donald Luskin

The market -- and investors -- are going to have to sweat for every penny of upside in the future.

No Catalyst, No Bull Market
September 4, 2001
Donald Luskin

Without a catalyst, the best we can hope for is stabilization. And that ain't much.

Copyright 2001 through 2014 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
Log off