PUTTING IDEAS TO WORK IN
THE CHALLENGE OF ASSET ALLOCATION AND CAPITAL COMMITMENT
2015: Oil Change for
the Global Economy, Non-US Edition
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Break up the BRICs -- BR losers, IC winners. Abe gets a do-over, and the
EA gets QE.
2015: Oil Change for the
Global Economy, US Edition
December 31, 2014
We won the oil lottery in 2014. In 2015, we cash in the ticket. We
expect a good year.
US Fixed Income Strategy:
The Fed Irrelevancy Hypothesis
July 2, 2013
QE has no effect on yields. They've been rising for a year because
systemic risk is lower.
2013 Outlook: Think
Globally, Shrink Locally
January 14, 2013
US stocks will pay as we move off the supply side, and the rest of the
world moves toward it.
Positioning for the Fiscal
October 3, 2012
Markets aren't pricing the coming volatility, but protection from it is
Can Stocks Keep Melting Up?
February 10, 2012
If risk aversion retreats as much as it did a year ago, stocks would be
The bin Laden Commodities Crash
May 6, 2011
A speculative reaction --
and a downpayment on the peace dividend in the War on Terror.
Gold Hits Our $1500 Price
April 20, 2011
We're still bullish on gold, but it's not the "conviction trade" it was
Gold is a
December 20, 2010
Not a buy, not a sell. The best bull case has weakened, but other upside
factors are in play.
Differences Make a Difference
November 10, 2010
Upgrading our view on stocks and the economy, with no crazily optimistic
Fixed Income Strategy:
Take The Low Road
June 16, 2010
The Fed is
stuck where it is this year and next: so bet on low yields and low
More Upside for Gold
June 10, 2010
The future for gold, and what an all-time
high gold price is saying about the future
January 15, 2010
Expectations are so elevated, this earnings season almost has to be a
August 31, 2009
Stocks will have to obey Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on
forever, it will stop."
Great… Now What?
August 21, 2009
A round-up of our strategic views now that the global economy has hit
March 25, 2008
The Fed pulls back from the inflationary
brink, and we call the top on "inflation plays."
The Other Winners in the
February 19, 2008
If you didn't short risky credits, being
long inflation has been the place to be.
Time to Earn the Panic
November 13, 2007
Stocks are the king of carry trades once
August 7, 2007
Panic was ignited by Bill Gross and it
burned out with Jim Cramer.
Doves Eat Crow
June 6, 2007
They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But
that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.
Inflation Plays Revisited
May 31, 2007
The worst case inflation risk is off the
table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.
Update to Our US Equity Outlook
April 13, 2007
The correction was a correction -- it has
about run its course, with inflation plays in the lead.
Are We Scared Yet?
February 28, 2007
We got the
correction we expected -- but is that really all it is?
Enough Good News for a
February 16, 2007
Bernanke on indefinite hold and tax risk reduced, what's left to rally
Update to our Equity Sector
January 11, 2007
Tech and Telecom driven by Democrats --
Energy and Materials driven by seemingly everything.
It Was a Very Good Year
December 29, 2006
right that stocks would dominate in 2006 -- the trick in 2007 will be to
call the top.
Update to Our US Bond Forecast
August 25, 2006
Bonds are very vulnerable: they're
tracking Fed rhetoric, not reality.
Update to Our US Equity
August 23, 2006
bullish short term can only be so good, and why the bearish long term might
only be so bad.
August 7, 2006
The Fed will cause a real recession by trying to
prevent an illusory one.
A Question of Value
February 14, 2005
Cheap stocks in a robust economic environment
are an outstanding risk/return play.
Miss the Obvious
November 2, 2004
A bubble of fear has driven stocks to deep
undervaluation, and that bubble is about to burst.
A Trading Value Play
July 20, 2004
Back at the bottom of the trading range, the
Technology Sector looks cheap in relative and absolute terms.
On March CPI
April 19, 2004
Bonds face the reality of the awakening
of a long-slumbering Fed.
Tech: Back in Harm's Way?
April 8, 2004
With new political uncertainties and no
valuation tailwinds, the tech sector is suddenly not so compelling.
A "Real" Dollar Rally? Don’t
Bank On It
February 19, 2004
Until the Fed reverses its inflationary course,
the dollar is headed nowhere but lower.
A Tricky Mixture
February 10, 2004
sectors are being driven by both growth and inflation.
A Buyable Dip
January 29, 2004
here won't be bad for stocks, knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.
Bond Bubble Sure To Burst, But
January 13, 2004
A questionable jobs number has given the bond market a questionable
The Best Materials
December 9, 2003
In stocks, a
new fastest horse emerges as the reflationary expansion turns inflationary.
Investing at the Brink
October 30, 2003
winners and losers as the Fed sleepwalks at the edge of inflation.
Treasuries: Face the
October 2, 2003
Accelerating growth and inflation risk mean that
Treasuries are headed for a big fall.
Betting on Growth
July 11, 2003
The financial markets appear poised for a
significant growth rebound, but interest rate futures are lagging behind.
JGB Sell-Off: The Real Deal?
July 3, 2003
Japanese government bonds take a tumble, but
without monetary reflation, they may not have much further to go.
Bond Market Blow-Off
June 20, 2003
Treasuries are finally starting to get real
about growth prospects and inflation risk.
Four Pillars of Wisdom
June 20, 2003
Valuation, monetary policy and tax policy are
all in bull-mode. But there's a fourth factor.
A Bounce for Gold
April 9, 2003
With war-fear trades unwound and the Fed still
committed to fighting deflation, gold has more upside than downside.
March 24, 2003
The bears get their say this week as the war
gets real -- but markets have seen the worst.
March 21, 2003
It's time for the recovery of risk tolerance,
and that means more bad news for Treasuries.
The Tech Recovery -- But...
December 6, 2002
NASDAQ saying that tech is back, or just that investors are now more risk
Tech Out of Whack, Once Again
November 25, 2002
In the last
month's recovery, technology stocks have become extremely overvalued
relative to the rest of the market.
Harvey, We Hardly Knew Ye
November 13, 2002
Harvey Pitt and Robert Herdman were helping
companies transition to higher levels of regulatory compliance -- it will be
a riskier market without them.
Return to Normalcy
November 4, 2002
A bottomless tech pit masks an overall
stabilization in earnings and expectations.
October 16, 2002
Earnings season was full of pleasant surprises
-- until Intel. But was Intel's miss really a surprise.
Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.
Q1 2000 Upside Down?
October 1, 2002
Learning about what hopefully is 2002's bottom by looking at 2000's top.
Survival of the Fiscally
September 30, 2002
Technology companies lacking loads of cash and
ample market share face a real threat of extinction.
What's Ahead for Bonds?
September 27, 2002
driving up long Treasuries is abating -- but so far there's no pressure for
them to come back down.
Let's Play Survivor
September 24, 2002
It's now a
game of life and death in techland. For most portfolio managers, what counts
is picking the best survivors.
Are Stocks Really Cheap?
September 6, 2002
Don't worry that price/earnings ratios still
seem too high for a bear market trough -- they're not.
Certifications: 16,000 Unexploded Landmines
August 14, 2002
Today's deadline is being portrayed as a
non-event -- but the certification requirement is worse than you think.
August 7, 2002
It may no longer be a "wealth creation
machine," but Cisco is going to keep Silicon Valley alive for at least
The Earnings Party Where
August 2, 2002
The strange dynamics of the past earnings
season -- upside surprises, downside revisions, and an uptick for tech.
Eyeing the Hurricane
August 2, 2002
The market's "reflexive" spiral has burned
itself out for the moment -- leaving the S&P 500 still significantly
July 24, 2002
extremely cheap and extremely destabilized. But taking a long-term view --
they may really be extremely normal.
July 17, 2002
Treasury Undersecretary says the market is overvalued, you'd better listen
-- because the Bush administration is making it so.
A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002
Donald Luskin and
recovery is elusive and stocks are still rich. The Old Economy is now the
engine of recovery -- and it's cheap.
End of the World[Com]
June 26, 2002
The latest accounting bombshell will have
investors wondering "what is reality?" It could create a great buying
Techstocks: "Your 15
Minutes Are Up"
June 19, 2002
beats, but the tech sector will still get beat up. The focus of economic
recovery is elsewhere.
Normal Valuation: Where
Do We Go from Here?
June 11, 2002
overall market is normally valued for the first time in 5-1/2 years and
earnings recovery is at hand -- what are the risks?
Intel: No News is Big News
June 7, 2002
blockbuster guidance revision shouldn't have been a surprise -- but it may
signal the beginning of the end for whacky techstock valuations.
Return to Normalcy?
June 4, 2002
market has finally returned to a normal level of earnings-based valuation...
but what's normal? And will the earnings be there?
Into the Valley of Death
May 8, 2002
the right of them, cannon to the left of them -- Cisco's report won't be
enough to save tech's earnings season.
May 7, 2002
The dollar is in a positive transition from
excessive scarcity to a strong -- but non-deflationary -- position
Mind the Gap
April 24, 2002
The economy still can't generate the earnings
recovery that techstocks need. But it's time to take some more profits off
Tech Hits the Wall
April 3, 2002
Pass the "V"-agra!
The steady march of upward earnings revisions from the September lows has
BoJ Watch: The
Incomprehensible Mr. Hayami
March 28, 2002
The BoJ's chief provides a grim reminder of
the tremendous institutional obstacles to anti-deflationary policies.
The NASDAQ's Wyle E. Coyote
March 21, 2002
of happy-talk about recovery. But we still say the NASDAQ is fighting the
tides of value, risk and history.
BoJ Watch: The Yen Paradox
March 8, 2002
How come the yen is surging just when the BoJ
promises to reflate?
A Gnash Equilibrium?
March 4, 2002
Stocks have been in a violent trading range --
valuation risks still cap the upside, and eternally springing hopes for a
"V" recovery provide the floor.
BoJ Watch: Climbing on Board
March 1, 2002
At last the stars are aligning for deflation
relief in Japan. That should spell more trouble soon for JGB's.
BoJ Watch: Encouraging Signs
February 19, 2002
President Bush's Japan visit appears to have
provided important impetus for a reflationary push.
BoJ Watch: Putting on the JGB
February 5, 2002
A marginal shift against expectations for
sustained yen deflation is creating opportunities to short the Japanese
On the Road to Equilibrium
February 4, 2002
are still out of whack, but the worst excesses of misvaluation have been
BoJ Watch: A Pause On the
Yen’s Downhill Road
January 22, 2002
Saber-rattling by Asian neighbors has made
Japanese officials clam-up on Yen depreciation -- but it's still destined to
Don't Blame the Long Bond!
January 7, 2002
The huge gap
between bond yields and the "earnings yield" of stocks is all across the
A Little Problem of Reality
January 4, 2002
market is off with a bang for the new year. Can the real world possibly keep
December 20, 2001
Expect volatility: tomorrow all the major
indexes rebalance -- so that means that all the major indexers will
The Yield Gap, Sector by
December 19, 2001
has afflicted technology stocks -- that's an opportunity both for asset
allocators and sector allocators.
The Falling Yen
December 17, 2001
Speculation about a forthcoming anti-deflation
policy initiative in Japan
continues to mount.
Vay Out of Vack -- Even for a
December 10, 2001
Unless a "V" recovery va-va-va-vooms into
earnings and reflation hard and fast, we've got an unbalanced market that
favors a shift out of tech stocks and into bonds.
It Could Be Worse... But That Doesn't Mean It'll Get Better
December 3, 2001
We've rallied back from death's door -- but
we're still well within the context of recession.
Looking at the Record
November 28, 2001
How have the investment themes I've discussed
in my SmartMoney.com column panned out?
Japan: Opportunity in Chaos
November 27, 2001
A real anti-deflationary policy thrust might
finally be in sight in Japan, giving rise to compelling investment
Cisco’s Twelve-Step Program for Recovering Techstocks
November 6, 2001
Last night we saw a new John Chambers and a
new Cisco -- with a new confidence born of having confessed the worst. But
the market may not like the truth.
Portfolio Secrets of Neutron
October 25, 2001
In hard times, the most powerful companies
don't just survive. They get stronger. And those are the stocks you want.
Uncle Sam Wants You... To Make
October 19, 2001
It's a CEO's patriotic duty in time of war.
And in war, truth is always the first victim.
Theme Song: It Jihad To Be You
October 18, 2001
How to play the defense theme -- and some
thoughts about when to stop playing it.
Sky High Valuations --
From Denial to Bargaining
October 3, 2001
You can tell yourself that today's price
earnings multiples are so high because of low interest rates. Or you can
face the truth. Your call...
The Jihad Portfolio Marches On
October 2, 2001
As America gears up for war, we keep on
gearing up a portfolio designed to go to war, too.
Introducing the Jihad Portfolio
October 1, 2001
It's always a war out there for investors --
the difference is, now it's a real one. Ignore that reality at your peril.
Why Won't Valuations Come
Down? They Will!
September 28, 2001
The S&P 500 is still priced for irrational
exuberance. And denial is a ribber in Egypt.
September 26, 2001
Stocks may be getting cheaper in terms of some valuation measures -- but not
in terms of the market's willingness to bear risk.
September 26, 2001
Yesterday the world stopped and took a breath
-- for the first time in two weeks. It was wonderful!
The Week Ahead
September 17, 2001
An analytical framework for understanding the
markets in one of history's riskiest weeks.
September 14, 2001
The good news -- the dollar and the US markets are still safe havens, and
the long bear market has already wrung out a lot of risk exposure.
September 11, 2001
The bear market won't be over till investors
are honest with themselves about the post-boom-and-bust realities.
When Booms Go Bust
September 10, 2001
This is no ordinary business cycle. It's more
like a business cyclone -- and policy response had better realize that!
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy
September 7, 2001
Oh boy. The US government doesn't want to
break up Microsoft. Oh boy. Intel affirms in the midrange of its guidance.
Work Hard for the Money
September 6, 2001
The market -- and investors -- are going to
have to sweat for every penny of upside in the future.
No Catalyst, No Bull Market
September 4, 2001
Without a catalyst, the best we can hope for
is stabilization. And that ain't much.