Client home
Public home
About us
Contact us
Client Reports:
Donald Luskin
Michael Warren
Data Insights

Recommended reading
TrendMacro in the news
Follow on Twitter

Intellectual Ammunition

Just-In-Time Energy
April 27, 2015
Michael Warren and Donald Luskin

As crude hits the top of our predicted 2015 trading range, we look ahead to $15-$40 oil.

Something You Probably Didn't Know about Ebola
October 14, 2014
Donald Luskin

If Ebola is going to infect the whole world, why are new cases in Africa declining?

Is the Fed Moving the Stock Market?
March 11, 2013
Donald Luskin

The Fed isn't printing money, it's printing risk -- to the tune of $1 billion a day in US stocks.

Understanding ELA: Emergency Liquidity Assistance
July 15, 2011
Lorcan Roche Kelly

How the ECB lets national central banks of the Eurosystem do the dirty work.

Focus Report: The Train Wreck in Hours Worked
June 2, 2010
Donald Luskin

There can be no classic "V-shaped recovery" when this time is so horribly different for labor.

2009's Economic Chart of the Year
December 28, 2009
Donald Luskin

Obama loses his rock-star status, driving an historic comeback for stocks.

2010's Great Debate: Inflation or Deflation?
December 22, 2009
Donald Luskin

Both! Deflationary forces continue to bear down, so the Fed will inflate all the more.

Gold's Most Immemorial Year
November 19, 2009
David Gitlitz

What 1979 can teach us about gold, inflation and the Fed.

TrendMacro's Best Long Term Charts
November 12, 2009
Donald Luskin

Deep historical context on today's unique market and economic conditions.

The Case for Ambivalence
June 12, 2009
Donald Luskin

Where do we go from here, now that we're not going to zero?

It's an Old New Era
May 1, 2009
Donald Luskin

There's no Q1 retrenchment of consumption -- there's a shock to investment.

Fannie/Freddie Fallout
September 8, 2008
Donald Luskin and David Gitlitz

The takeover heals near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.

Emerging Markets, Emerging Dollar Inflation
March 13, 2008
David Gitlitz

US inflation shows up first in the developing world, and then it comes home to roost.

Where's the There There? Part II
October 5, 2007
Donald Luskin

With stocks back to all-time highs, was the summer crisis really about nothing at all?

Trade in the Balance
April 5, 2007
Donald Luskin

Why trade is good, why protectionism is bad, and why countervailing duties on Chinese paper are only a small step in the wrong direction.

Inflation Mission Accomplished? Not So Fast
November 20, 2006
David Gitlitz

Seeming downticks in reported inflation are just counter-trend blips in a continuing uptrend.

Gut Check for Growth
November 2, 2006
Donald Luskin

Our growth forecast is getting increasingly out of consensus -- and that's just where we like it.


The Housing Cool-off In Perspective
June 22, 2006
David Gitlitz

A strong economy will keep the housing sector and the consumer from crashing.


"Savings" vs. Wealth
February 22, 2006
David Gitlitz

Savings, in decline for two decades, is a sign of risk aversion. Wealth, at all time highs, is a sign of growth.


Core Inflation Not as Low as It Looks  
November 16, 2005
David Gitlitz

Statistical artifacts are holding down reported inflation. Soon those same artifacts will boost it.


Housing Bubble Bunkum
August 16, 2005
David Gitlitz

If we've seen the best cast of the bubbleists, there's little to fear.


Money Supply Mishmash
May 11, 2005
David Gitlitz

The inflation-denying soft-patch brigade has found a new way to be wrong.


Inflation: Disagreement Among Friends
April 26, 2005
Donald Luskin

Even economists who respect market-based price signals are missing the evidence of more inflation yet to come.


Dollar and Deficits: Fables, Fallacies and Foolishness
December 13, 2004
David Gitlitz

The conventional wisdom is always wrong -- but when it comes to the dollar, it's dangerously wrong.


A Big Score
November 5, 2004
Donald Luskin

Bush wins. Stocks win. And the political futures markets win.


An Olympic-Size Risk
August 26, 2004
Donald Luskin

The controversy over Olympic gymnastic gold may be a precursor of another contested presidential election.


More Thoughts on $40 Crude
May 26, 2004
Donald Luskin

This time it really is different: today's high oil prices don't have to mean a rerun of "That 70's Show."


China and Inflation
February 18, 2004
Donald Luskin

Our inflationary fears are not reduced by the several popular China theories.


Output Gap Fallacies
February 6, 2004
David Gitlitz

Another jobs report, another bad excuse for the Fed's flirtation with disaster.


A Considerable Seduction
December 17, 2003
Donald Luskin

The Fed's campaign to lower long-term yields and increase inflation is a dangerous bait-and-switch.


The Deficit and Growth
September 22, 2003
Donald Luskin

The deficit is a reflection of our performance-based economy -- slow growth was its cause, and fast growth will be its cure.


Fed Cred
August 13, 2003
Donald Luskin

Did the Fed break its promise to the bond market... or is it just that you can't cheat an honest man?


NASDAQ 5000, Dow 5000
March 10, 2003
Donald Luskin

The high-water mark of optimism versus today's ebb tide of pessimism.


1001 Bearabian Nights
October 10, 2002
Donald Luskin

By Monday we could be in the longest bear market in history -- and it was all caused by one man.


Vote Early and Often

October 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

The Iowa Electronic Markets use futures trading to build the best possible political polls.

The Beat Goes On... or Was That a Miss?
August 23, 2002
Donald Luskin

Ciena yesterday proved that on Wall Street even the simplest statistics are complex -- and they're getting even more so.

Certifiably Nuts
August 16, 2002
Donald Luskin

Even SEC officials say the new law requiring CEO's and CFO's to certify their financials is the work of "idiots."

Practice What You Print
July 19, 2002
Donald Luskin

The New York Times is noisily huffing about the evils of stock options, while busily indulging in them itself.

Who's the Real WorldCom Con Artist?
June 28, 2002
Donald Luskin

The media's handling of WorldCom this week has been an expensive parade of untruths.

Excuses, Excuses
June 25, 2002
Donald Luskin

The "don't fight the Fed" and "super-V superbull" crowds are capitulating -- and that's an opportunity for the rest of us.

Semiconductors: Down By Law
May 22, 2002
Donald Luskin

Chips aren't just commodities, and it's going to take a lot more than deflation-relief to get the semiconductor industry over the problems created by Moore's Law.

Not an Option
May 20, 2002
Donald Luskin

S&P will now include option expenses when it calculates companies' earnings. Bravo.

Debating the Valuation Conundrum
May 13, 2002
David Gitlitz and Donald Luskin

David Gitlitz doesn't agree that equity valuations got too high in the late 1990s -- but he and Luskin both think they're too high now.

The New High Plateau: The Valuation Conundrum
May 10, 2002
Donald Luskin

The best reasons for the current era of high equity valuations aren't very good.

The Clout of Capital
April 19, 2002
Donald Luskin

There’s an important new book that every investor should read.

IBM's Defense Rests
April 18, 2002
Donald Luskin

Like OJ, IBM says it was framed. But that doesn't mean that it's not guilty.

Can Anybody Here Play This Game?
April 4, 2002
Donald Luskin

How we can rely on faulty analyst estimates to gauge value in the markets? Because sometimes stock prices are even worse.

Greenspan's Q&A: Hot Spots and High Points
February 28, 2002
Donald Luskin

If you didn't catch the Q&A following Greenspan's congressional testimony, here are the lecture notes, annotated and linked.

Shorting JGB's: Tricks of the Trade
February 11, 2002
Donald Luskin

Don't forget that there's a currency play here too -- but you have to go to a little extra trouble to make it.

Companies and Their Co-Dependents
February 6, 2002
Donald Luskin

Tyco shows why corporations aren't the only ones who like their accounting a little slippery.

Enron, Krugman, and the Public Intellectuals
January 28, 2002
Donald Luskin

Paul Krugman and other pundits got splashed with Enron's mud last week. Should anyone care?

Don't Believe Everything You Read Over and Over Again
December 24, 2001
Donald Luskin

There's a myth out there about the stock market signaling robust recovery. But believing it doesn't make it true.

Power to the People
December 5, 2001
Donald Luskin

Critics of Social Security privatization say Enron proves markets are too risky. In fact, the lesson is just the opposite.

What Enron's Collapse Doesn't Mean
December 4, 2001
Donald Luskin

Some people saw Satan's face in the smoke from the World Trade Center. Others see Enron's troubles as a reason not to reform Social Security.

Deflation: Early Hopes, and the Metrics of Headwinds
November 30, 2001
Donald Luskin

Some smart people are talking about an end to deflation -- but if it keeps going, here are some facts you need to know.

The Name of the Beast
November 27, 2001
Donald Luskin

Call it a "recession" or call it "Marvin" -- either way we're just playing a useless name game.

The Deflation Investor's Checklist
November 21, 2001
Donald Luskin

A deflationary spiral would be bad for stocks. But there are ways to protect your portfolio.

Laffer's Curveball
November 21, 2001

Donald Luskin
Arthur Laffer must be rolling in his grave. Wait... he's still alive!

Deflation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
November 20, 2001
Donald Luskin
Sometimes falling prices can be good -- but that's not deflation. When prices fall due to deflation, things get ugly.

Deflation: The Basics
November 19, 2001
Donald Luskin

Deflation is not falling prices. Deflation is not economic contraction. Deflation is when the Fed screws up.

Back Off Floyd, Valuations Aren't That High!
October 16, 2001
Donald Luskin

Usually financial hocus-pocus is designed to make stocks look cheap -- but here's some sleight of hand designed to make them look expensive.

Of Caterpillars and Capital Gains
October 10, 2001
Donald Luskin

To really stimulate the economy, we have to coax investors to take risks again. And the way to do that is with a capital-gains tax cut.

Copyright 2001 through 2015 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
Log off