THE CONCEPTUAL FUNDAMENTALS
UNDERNEATH WHAT'S MOVING THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKETS
April 27, 2015
Michael Warren and
As crude hits the top of our predicted 2015 trading range, we look ahead
to $15-$40 oil.
Something You Probably
Didn't Know about Ebola
October 14, 2014
If Ebola is going to infect the whole world, why are new cases in Africa
Is the Fed Moving the Stock
March 11, 2013
The Fed isn't printing money, it's printing risk -- to the tune of $1
billion a day in US stocks.
Emergency Liquidity Assistance
July 15, 2011
Lorcan Roche Kelly
How the ECB lets national central banks of the Eurosystem do the dirty
Focus Report: The Train
Wreck in Hours Worked
June 2, 2010
There can be no classic "V-shaped recovery"
when this time is so horribly different for labor.
2009's Economic Chart of
December 28, 2009
Obama loses his rock-star status, driving an historic comeback for
2010's Great Debate:
Inflation or Deflation?
December 22, 2009
Both! Deflationary forces continue to bear down, so the Fed will inflate
all the more.
Gold's Most Immemorial Year
November 19, 2009
What 1979 can teach us about gold,
inflation and the Fed.
TrendMacro's Best Long
November 12, 2009
Deep historical context on today's unique market and economic
The Case for Ambivalence
June 12, 2009
Where do we go from here, now that we're not
going to zero?
It's an Old New Era
May 1, 2009
There's no Q1 retrenchment of consumption -- there's a shock to
September 8, 2008
Donald Luskin and
The takeover heals near-term crises,
but raises serious long-term questions.
Emerging Markets, Emerging
March 13, 2008
US inflation shows up first in the developing world, and then it comes
home to roost.
Where's the There There?
October 5, 2007
With stocks back to all-time highs, was the
summer crisis really about nothing at all?
Trade in the Balance
April 5, 2007
is good, why protectionism is bad, and why countervailing duties on
Chinese paper are only a small step in the wrong direction.
Inflation Mission Accomplished? Not So Fast
November 20, 2006
Seeming downticks in reported inflation
are just counter-trend blips in a continuing uptrend.
Gut Check for Growth
November 2, 2006
forecast is getting increasingly out of consensus -- and that's just where
we like it.
The Housing Cool-off In Perspective
June 22, 2006
A strong economy will keep the housing sector and the consumer from
"Savings" vs. Wealth
February 22, 2006
Savings, in decline for two decades, is a sign
of risk aversion. Wealth, at all time highs, is a sign of growth.
Core Inflation Not as Low as
November 16, 2005
Statistical artifacts are holding down reported
inflation. Soon those same artifacts will boost it.
Housing Bubble Bunkum
August 16, 2005
If we've seen the best cast of the bubbleists,
there's little to fear.
Money Supply Mishmash
May 11, 2005
The inflation-denying soft-patch
brigade has found a new way to be wrong.
Inflation: Disagreement Among
April 26, 2005
economists who respect market-based price signals are missing the evidence
of more inflation yet to come.
Dollar and Deficits: Fables,
Fallacies and Foolishness
December 13, 2004
The conventional wisdom is always wrong -- but
when it comes to the dollar, it's dangerously wrong.
A Big Score
November 5, 2004
Bush wins. Stocks
win. And the political futures markets win.
An Olympic-Size Risk
August 26, 2004
The controversy over Olympic gymnastic gold may
be a precursor of another contested presidential election.
More Thoughts on $40 Crude
May 26, 2004
This time it really is different: today's high
oil prices don't have to mean a rerun of "That 70's Show."
China and Inflation
February 18, 2004
inflationary fears are not reduced by the several popular China theories.
Output Gap Fallacies
February 6, 2004
Another jobs report, another bad excuse for the
Fed's flirtation with disaster.
A Considerable Seduction
December 17, 2003
campaign to lower long-term yields and increase inflation is a dangerous
The Deficit and Growth
September 22, 2003
The deficit is a reflection of our
performance-based economy -- slow growth was its cause, and fast growth will
be its cure.
August 13, 2003
Did the Fed break its promise to the bond
market... or is it just that you can't cheat an honest man?
NASDAQ 5000, Dow 5000
March 10, 2003
high-water mark of optimism versus today's ebb tide of pessimism.
1001 Bearabian Nights
October 10, 2002
By Monday we could be in the longest bear
market in history -- and it was all caused by one man.
Vote Early and Often
October 4, 2002
The Iowa Electronic Markets use futures
trading to build the best possible political polls.
The Beat Goes On... or Was That a Miss?
August 23, 2002
Ciena yesterday proved that on Wall Street
even the simplest statistics are complex -- and they're getting even more
August 16, 2002
Even SEC officials say the new law requiring
CEO's and CFO's to certify their financials is the work of "idiots."
Practice What You Print
July 19, 2002
The New York Times is noisily huffing
about the evils of stock options, while busily indulging in them itself.
Who's the Real WorldCom Con Artist?
June 28, 2002
handling of WorldCom this week has been an expensive parade of untruths.
June 25, 2002
fight the Fed" and "super-V superbull" crowds are capitulating -- and that's
an opportunity for the rest of us.
Semiconductors: Down By Law
May 22, 2002
just commodities, and it's going to take a lot more than deflation-relief to
get the semiconductor industry over the problems created by Moore's Law.
Not an Option
May 20, 2002
S&P will now
include option expenses when it calculates companies' earnings. Bravo.
Debating the Valuation
May 13, 2002
David Gitlitz and
David Gitlitz doesn't agree that equity
valuations got too high in the late 1990s -- but he and Luskin both think
they're too high now.
The New High Plateau: The
May 10, 2002
reasons for the current era of high equity valuations aren't very good.
The Clout of Capital
April 19, 2002
There’s an important new book that every
investor should read.
IBM's Defense Rests
April 18, 2002
Like OJ, IBM says it was framed. But that doesn't mean that it's not guilty.
Can Anybody Here Play This
April 4, 2002
How we can rely on faulty analyst estimates to
gauge value in the markets? Because sometimes stock prices are even worse.
Greenspan's Q&A: Hot Spots and High Points
February 28, 2002
If you didn't catch the Q&A following
Greenspan's congressional testimony, here are the lecture notes, annotated
Shorting JGB's: Tricks of the
February 11, 2002
Don't forget that there's a currency play here
too -- but you have to go to a little extra trouble to make it.
Companies and Their Co-Dependents
February 6, 2002
Tyco shows why corporations aren't the only
ones who like their accounting a little slippery.
Enron, Krugman, and the Public
January 28, 2002
and other pundits got splashed with Enron's mud last week. Should anyone
Don't Believe Everything You
Read Over and Over Again
December 24, 2001
myth out there about the stock market signaling robust recovery. But
believing it doesn't make it true.
Power to the People
December 5, 2001
Critics of Social Security privatization say
Enron proves markets are too risky. In fact, the lesson is just the
Enron's Collapse Doesn't Mean
December 4, 2001
Some people saw Satan's face
in the smoke from the World Trade Center. Others see Enron's troubles as a
reason not to reform Social Security.
Deflation: Early Hopes, and the Metrics of Headwinds
November 30, 2001
Some smart people are talking about an end to
deflation -- but if it keeps going, here are some facts you need to know.
The Name of the Beast
November 27, 2001
Call it a
"recession" or call it "Marvin" -- either way we're just playing a useless
The Deflation Investor's Checklist
November 21, 2001
deflationary spiral would be bad for stocks. But there are ways to protect
November 21, 2001
Arthur Laffer must be rolling in his grave.
Wait... he's still alive!
Deflation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
November 20, 2001
falling prices can be good -- but that's not deflation. When prices
fall due to deflation, things get ugly.
Deflation: The Basics
November 19, 2001
Deflation is not falling prices. Deflation is
not economic contraction. Deflation is when the Fed screws up.
Back Off Floyd, Valuations Aren't
October 16, 2001
Usually financial hocus-pocus is designed to
make stocks look cheap -- but here's some sleight of hand designed to make
them look expensive.
Of Caterpillars and Capital Gains
October 10, 2001
To really stimulate the economy, we
have to coax investors to take risks again. And the way to do that is with a
capital-gains tax cut.