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Fed Shadow

One Small Step -- In the Wrong Direction
November 23, 2015
Donald Luskin

The Fed seems committed to a deflationary policy error. Hopefully it will be a small one.

FOMC: The Lady or the Tightener?
September 15, 2015
Donald Luskin

Markets have already done the tightening -- and Yellen likes keeping us all guessing.

"Patient" is a Virtue
March 16, 2015
Donald Luskin

Will she or won't she? Our FOMC language sweepstakes entry: Yellen will keep the word in.

The Fed's Growth-Friendly "Dot" Gap
September 19, 2014
Donald Luskin

Treasuries are waking up to what stocks have known all year: "the Yellen Rule" could work.

It's Yellen's World, and We're Just Living In It
June 18, 2014
Donald Luskin

Where yields have to go down to go up, and inflation is above 2% so prices can be stable.

Bernanke's Last Big Call
January 21, 2014
Donald Luskin

It takes two tapers to make a trend, and a locked-in fait accomplis for Yellen.

Stanley Fischer: Game of Chairs
December 12, 2013
Donald Luskin

Is this brilliant man supposed to play Dick Cheney to Janet Yellen's George W. Bush?

Yellen and Screamin' at the Fed
December 5, 2013
Donald Luskin

Bernanke may taper in January, to defer the day when the FOMC rejects Yellen's leadership.

So Welcome to the Yellen Years
November 15, 2013
Donald Luskin

Rigid, dogmatic, nervous, poorly prepped -- and willing to deny the facts to defend policy.

Bernanke's Deathbed Confession
July 11, 2013
Donald Luskin

As he ponders his legacy, he says don't worry about tapering: QE never mattered anyway.

Taper Your Tapering Expectations
June 27, 2013
Donald Luskin

Threats in credit markets, and weak data, make it unlikely the Fed will taper as planned.

To Taper or Not to Taper?
June 17, 2013
Donald Luskin

Rising Treasury yields may be saying the Fed doesn't need so much foam on the runway.

QE Steps Down Before Bernanke Does?
May 23, 2013
Donald Luskin

His signal was unmistakable. But with deflation risk increasing, he can't follow through.

2013 Outlook: Doves Ruled Out at the Fed
January 25, 2013
Donald Luskin

By its own formulas, asset purchases ought to stop this year, and rates hikes start in the next.

Rethinking QE3
September 18, 2012
Donald Luskin

Less than meets the eye for the economy, but more than meets the eye for gold.

When Bernanke Talks, People Sell
March 1, 2012
Donald Luskin

It would take an economic miracle to cause the Fed to tighten. Don't bet on it.

FOMC Preview: In Praise of Ben Bernanke
June 22, 2011
Donald Luskin

QE2 complete -- the Fed's just right. No QE3 unless unemployment rises or inflation falls.

This Hawk has Flown
February 11, 2011
Donald Luskin

With Kevin Warsh's departure, the Fed loses is best-respected voice for tightening. 

Good Problems to Have
January 14, 2011
Donald Luskin

The Fed won't go broke (at least not on paper), and rising rates won't squelch growth.

Sell on the Leak?
October 27, 2010
Donald Luskin

The new conventional wisdom is QE will be small -- but committees do unexpected things.

Dialing Down the Drama at the Fed
September 16, 2010
Donald Luskin

Gold's new highs means the Fed's reflation campaign is already starting to work.

When PhD's Attack
August 25, 2010
Donald Luskin

Markets will flail until the academics who run the Fed stop theorizing and get real.

What Should the Fed Do?
August 5, 2010
Donald Luskin

There's one policy option for next week's FOMC that would be both powerful and gradualist.

No QE2 Yet -- Just QE 1.1
July 22, 2010
Donald Luskin

Bernanke disappointed the "double dip" crowd, but it was still a step toward more easing.

How to Ease, Not When to Tighten
June 23, 2010
Donald Luskin

Today the FOMC will take the first tiny steps down the path to further easing.

The Scariest Chart in Economics
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Donald Luskin

The FOMC meets, facing a secular breakdown in the labor market.

March FOMC Preview
March 15, 2010
Donald Luskin

The "extended period" language will stay -- there's just no reason to drop it.

Some Tightening!
February 24, 2010
Donald Luskin

When the SFP is complete at $200 billion, excess reserves will top today's $1.137 trillion.

Ben Can, But Ben Probably Won't
February 10, 2010
Donald Luskin

The Fed has the tools to "exit," but using them correctly remains a challenge.

Advice and Dissent
January 28, 2010
Donald Luskin

Hoenig's protest notwithstanding, jobs and politics have the Fed on hold all year.

New Year, Same Old Fed
January 4, 2010
Donald Luskin

The new wave of economic optimism isn’t moving the Fed toward serious tightening.

Sucker Trade: Inflation for Jobs
December 17, 2009
Donald Luskin

Citing the lessons of the 1970s, the Fed seems ready to repeat its mistakes of the 1970s.

Easing -- As in Appeasing
November 23, 2009
Donald Luskin

Gold soars as the Fed resists politicization by giving politicians the easy money they want.

Promise Keepers
October 27, 2009
Donald Luskin

Next week the FOMC will repeat its assurance to keep rates low for "an extended period."

Warsh's Warning
September 28, 2009
Donald Luskin

Okay, so the Fed won't be easy forever. Just almost forever.

The Maestro's Golden Years
September 11, 2009
David Gitlitz

Greenspan belatedly returns to the gold standard, but the Bernanke Fed isn't following.

Bernanke's Second Act
August 26, 2009
David Gitlitz

For good or for ill, the Fed's ultra-easy policy stance has a new lease on life.

Fed Still On The T-Bond Sidelines
August 24, 2009
Donald Luskin

Kohn's Jackson Hole remarks don't mean more long-term bond buys are coming.

The Fed's Bond Boo-Boo
July 24, 2009
Donald Luskin

The FOMC knows its $300 billion bond buy was a mistake -- it won't be buying more.

Check the Exit
July 22, 2009
David Gitlitz

Bernanke's vision for ending the Fed's hyper-accommodation is all tools and no timing.

A Run on the Fed?
July 10, 2009
David Gitlitz

The Fed is losing the short-term financing for its long-term liabilities.

Steady -- And Easy -- As She Goes
June 25, 2009
David Gitlitz

The Fed's abandonment of its deflation worries changes almost nothing.

Too Soon to Stray
June 23, 2009
Donald Luskin

Markets should be relieved tomorrow when the Fed stays the course.

They Laughed When I Sat Down to Monetize
June 4, 2009
Donald Luskin

The Fed is less worried about deflation -- but it's not worried enough about inflation.

Thrown A Curve
June 1, 2009
David Gitlitz

A record 2-10 Treasury spread shouts "inflation," but the Fed can't hear it.

Fed Says, Give Us Some Slack
May 6, 2009
David Gitlitz

Bernanke thinks the economy has turned the corner -- all the worse for inflation risk.

The Fed, Blinded by the Obvious
April 30, 2009
David Gitlitz

Of course the economy has improved slightly -- but the Fed remains bent on inflation.

Charm Offensive
April 6, 2009
Donald Luskin

The Fed sees the inflation risk in its huge balance sheet -- but there's nothing it can do.

Taking It Up A Notch
March 27, 2009
David Gitlitz

TALF 2.0 makes the Fed's balance sheet both bigger and stickier.

Ben Boldly Goes
March 19, 2009
Donald Luskin

It's official: the Fed is fighting deflation by monetizing debt.

Treasury Won't Bail Out the Fed
February 17, 2009
David Gitlitz

Their obscure partnership won't keep the Fed from having to inflate our way out of crisis.

"Some Time" A Great Notion
December 17, 2008
Donald Luskin

A zero rate and a humongous Fed balance sheet -- good for now, but not forever.

1/2% Funds: History-Making, But Irrelevant
December 15, 2008
David Gitlitz

Tomorrow's likely record low funds rate has little to do with how the Fed now operates.

1% and So What?
October 29, 2008
David Gitlitz

The funds rate has been trading below 1% for weeks, and the Fed has moved beyond rate-targeting anyway.

Regime Change at the Fed
October 14, 2008
David Gitlitz

Interest on reserves could either accelerate or prevent inflation -- it depends on how the Fed handles this powerful new tool.

How Tough is Ben's Tough Love?
September 16, 2008
David Gitlitz

The Fed has eschewed bailouts. Can the FOMC resist a pointless rate-cut today?

July 24, 2008
David Gitlitz

In a showdown between the dovish Fed governors and the hawkish regional presidents, the governors win.

Bernanke's Test
July 3, 2008
David Gitlitz

The ECB challenges the Fed to clean up its own inflationary mess.

Bonds Wish, Stocks Worry
June 26, 2008
David Gitlitz

Markets are wrong if they believe that yesterday's FOMC statement puts the Fed on hold.

Hikes Are Coming, and Not a Moment Too Soon
June 19, 2008
David Gitlitz

Despite the chatter, an improving economy and rising inflation point to a higher funds rate.

This is the Turn
June 11, 2008
David Gitlitz

In a matter of days, Fed expectations have shifted 180 degrees -- to the right direction.

The Bernanke Awakening
June 5, 2008
David Gitlitz

The Fed chief's dollar talk is not just talk. It's a call to action.

No Pause Promise, But No Panic
May 1, 2008
Donald Luskin

The FOMC was disturbingly vague -- but the finger is off the rate-cut trigger.

FOMC Preview
April 29, 2008
David Gitlitz

Tomorrow the Fed will pause -- but an end to the easing cycle would be more refreshing.

Fed vs ECB -- the ECB Wins
April 23, 2008
David Gitlitz

The euro's run may be ending as the Fed starts acting more like the ECB.

It Doesn't Look As Bad Now As it Did Then
April 10, 2008
David Gitlitz

Don't read too much into minutes of an FOMC meeting held the day after the end of the world.

Inflation: Not the Worst Case, But Still a Case
March 26, 2008
David Gitlitz

The Fed isn't going to be as easy as it once seemed, but it's still very easy.

Well Anchored?
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
David Gitlitz

The Fed's statements about inflation expectations are not anchored to reality.

"No Quandary Here"?
February 21, 2008
David Gitlitz

The Fed has a bogus rationale for sacrificing price stability on the altar of easy money.

Fed Cred Dead?
January 22, 2008
Donald Luskin

Even as it saves the world, the Fed can't quite get it right.

Helicopter Ben Takes Flight
January 11, 2008
David Gitlitz

The more Bernanke gives, the more the markets want -- and the more money gets dropped.

Confusion Reigns
December 12, 2007
David Gitlitz

The Fed is trying to help, but its clumsiness is undermining confidence rather than enhancing it.

"Act As Expected"
November 28, 2007
Donald Luskin

The Fed repeats it will only "act as needed," but it's still not likely to disappoint expectations.

Fed Liquidity Runneth Over
November 7, 2007
David Gitlitz

A new conundrum: the Fed is injecting record liquidity, yet the funds rate is trading below target.

Hawk on the Outside, Dove on the Inside
November 1, 2007
David Gitlitz

Yesterday's FOMC disappointed the doves, but the Fed remains tilted toward ease.

From Line in the Sand, to Sand in the Face
October 30, 2007
Donald Luskin

Bullied by gold, oil, the dollar and the futures markets, what can the Fed do to be strong

Fed in the Crosshairs
October 5, 2007
David Gitlitz

The first rule of central banking is: never admit you made a mistake. That means another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.

It's Not Just a River in Egypt
September 28, 2007
David Gitlitz

For the Fed, it's "jobs, jobs, jobs" -- and inflation is a matter of deep denial.

The Fed Gets the Yips
September 19, 2007
David Gitlitz

The Fed caves in to panic, and inflation risk kicks into high gear.

A Dearth of a Thousand Cuts
September 18, 2007
Donald Luskin

Bernanke will cave to market pressure and cut the funds rate once, but a neutral bias will disappoint the doves about future cuts.

A Surgical Strike
August 17, 2007
David Gitlitz

The Fed cleverly addressed the needs of beleaguered markets, without launching new helicopter drops of money on the broad economy.

The Fed Gets it Right
August 8, 2007
David Gitlitz

Thankfully no pandering to panic-mongers, but rates likely stuck on hold now until 2008.

Show Me
June 29, 2007
David Gitlitz

The Fed needs more proof that inflation has been tamed – and arbitrary core readings aren’t it.

Of Two Minds
April 12, 2007
David Gitlitz

Bernanke used to think low inflation was consistent with steady growth -- now it seems he can't decide between them.

On Second Thought…
March 23, 2007
David Gitlitz

After Wednesday's knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC statement, a clearer appraisal.

Fed Marking Time
October 26, 2006
David Gitlitz

The FOMC fiddles while inflation burns -- and bonds applaud.

The Frustrated Fed
September 28, 2006
Donald Luskin

Where on Lenin's Tomb do Fed officials have to stand to signal their hawkish bias?

Surprise on the Doveside
August 9, 2006
David Gitlitz

The Fed dug itself deeper in inflation denial yesterday, which raises the price the economy will have to pay tomorrow.

March to Folly
August 4, 2006
David Gitlitz

Today's job number seals the deal: the Fed is headed for a major error.

Fed Roulette
June 30, 2006
David Gitlitz

The FOMC wants it both ways on growth and inflation -- but its ambivalence puts both at risk.

Bernanke Arrives
June 6, 2006
David Gitlitz

An inflation-aware Fed will do the right thing for the right reason -- but still may get it wrong.

Learning Curve
March 21, 2006
David Gitlitz

Bernanke plumbs the yield curve's mysteries, but his economic outlook is clear -- and bad for bonds

Is Ben Bernanke a Phillips Head?
March 1, 2006
Donald Luskin

Does the Fed chair mean it when he says that maximum employment and price stability are compatible?

Arrivederci, Maestro
January 24, 2006
David Gitlitz

Greenspan's successors will have to live with a legacy of inflationary risk.

Bernanke's Conundrum
December 20, 2005
Donald Luskin

As the new Fed chairman takes office, his deepest beliefs will pull him in opposite policy directions.

Time for Change?
December 9, 2005
David Gitlitz

The Fed might be approaching neutrality, but that doesn't mean it's done.

No Dove
November 1, 2005
David Gitlitz

The risk in a new Bernanke Fed is overshooting in the direction of tightness.

Cat Out of the Bag?
September 19, 2005
David Gitlitz

Gold's inflation warning is too obvious for even the post-Katrina Fed to miss.

Katrina and the Fed
September 2, 2005
David Gitlitz

Expectations that the Gulf Coast disaster will deter the Fed are all wet.

Greenspan's Conundrum
June 27, 2005
David Gitlitz

Oil prices put the Fed on notice: this is no time to be flirting with a less vigilant stance.

Fed, Still Behind the Curve
June 16, 2005
David Gitlitz

This month's seemingly strong dollar masks dangerous underlying weakness in Fed policy.

Department of Corrections
May 4, 2005
Donald Luskin

The FOMC corrected its statement yesterday -- but when will the Fed correct the bond market.

The Fed's Oil Slick
March 21, 2005
David Gitlitz

Record crude prices mean a monetary mistake could be not just dumb, but disastrous.

Passing the Buck
November 22, 2004
David Gitlitz

There's one man in the world who can save the falling dollar -- and he won't do it.

Anybody Home?
November 15, 2004
David Gitlitz

There's a lot of talk about the dollar now -- all of it dangerous, and none of it right.

Dollar Delusions
October 26, 2004
David Gitlitz

It looks like the Fed may have found a new reason to stay too easy for too long.

Rude Awakening?
September 20, 2004
David Gitlitz

At these yields, the bond market needs the FOMC to be a lot gloomier than it's likely to be.

FOMC Preview
August 9, 2004
David Gitlitz

Greenspan won't take a pass tomorrow -- but that's where the certainty ends.

FOMC Preview
June 28, 2004
David Gitlitz

Gold tells the tale the Fed would rather be left unsaid.

Measure This!
June 25, 2004
Donald Luskin

You can't fight the numbers: trusting the Fed has been an expensive mistake.

Good News?
June 16, 2004
David Gitlitz

Small improvements in reported inflation only open the door for large policy error.

Surprises in Store
May 27, 2004
David Gitlitz

"Gradualism" means the Fed is not so gradually falling behind the inflationary curve.

Clear and Present
April 29, 2004
David Gitlitz

Everyone seems to know the Fed is raising rates. But does the Fed?

April 12, 2004
David Gitlitz

Even after March's terrific jobs report, the Fed still just doesn't get it.

What’s He Thinking?
March 29, 2004
David Gitlitz

Alan Greenspan wants inflation. The problem is: he's going to get more than he's bargaining for.

Good News, Bad News
January 29, 2004
David Gitlitz

The Fed takes a step in the direction of sanity -- if only a small one.

Don’t Worry, Be Happy?
January 27, 2004
David Gitlitz

Is the Fed inevitably facing the constraints of reality?

Saddam's Not Enough
December 15, 2003
David Gitlitz

Geopolitical/military risk is one thing -- and monetary risk is another.

Further Behind the Curve
December 8, 2003
David Gitlitz

The jobs report can only reinforce the Fed's increasing recklessness.

Betting on Sanity
November 21, 2003
David Gitlitz

Markets think that the Fed isn't going to be quite as reckless as its rhetoric.

See No Evil
November 14, 2003
David Gitlitz

If the Fed refuses to learn from inflationary history, are we doomed to repeat it?

Desperately Seeking Inflation?
October 29, 2003
David Gitlitz
Markets will have to deal with the possibility that Greenspan isn't just blind to inflation -- he actually wants it.

FOMC: Moment of Truth
October 27, 2003
David Gitlitz

Tomorrow's policy meeting could be pivotal in determining whether inflation risk becomes inflation reality.

Disinflation: Public Face vs Private Reality
October 20, 2003
David Gitlitz

Surely the Fed must at least privately acknowledge the evidence that disinflation is over. Now -- will they act?

Gold at $380
September 10, 2003
David Gitlitz

The Fed's confused belief that its role is to regulate the labor market is again putting monetary risk in play.

Is This What They Had In Mind?
August 18, 2003
David Gitlitz

The Fed has allowed long-submerged inflation risks to resurface, but appears unlikely to allow the risk to become reality.

FOMC Preview 
August 11, 2003
David Gitlitz

Tomorrow's meeting should bring early hints of a forthcoming policy change.

Bernanke to the Rescue?
July 23, 2003
Donald Luskin

Bernanke's homage to deflation-fighting will provide only short-term comfort to battered bond bulls.

How Much Will These Free Options Cost?
June 25, 2003
Donald Luskin

Unworried about inflation, the Fed's trying to gun the economy.

How Much Room?
June 11, 2003
David Gitlitz

How much longer will the Fed be able to court inflation risk as it fights a non-existent deflation?

Clear Opacity
May 7, 2003
David Gitlitz

A muddled Fed contemplates applying monetary solutions to non-monetary problems.

Portrait of the Greenspan Era
May 6, 2003
Donald Luskin

When it comes to monetary policy, a picture may be worth 100,000 of Alan Greenspan's words.

The Too-Big Easy?
January 31, 2003
David Gitlitz

There's no inflationary impulse in the Fed's accommodative stance -- yet. But it's time to start watching.

Gold's Wild Ride
December 20, 2002
David Gitlitz

It's for sure now -- both gold and Greenspan are telling us unambiguously that the Fed "gets it" on deflation.

Better Late Than Never
November 8, 2002
David Gitlitz

Fed minutes show policymakers grappling with the specter of deflation risk.

Monetary Hall of Mirrors
October 11, 2002
David Gitlitz

If monetary policy is the easiest it's been in 40 years, why isn't the Fed adding liquidity?

The Reality Trade
August 19, 2002
David Gitlitz

The FOMC's bias shift offers little support to a market over-extended on rate-cut expectations.

FOMC Blues
August 12, 2002
David Gitlitz

The same Wall Street economists who expected the Fed to tighten last spring are going to be disappointed all over again -- when the Fed doesn’t ease.

Greenspan Still On Hold
July 16, 2002
David Gitlitz

Greenspan may be "upbeat," but that doesn't mean rates are going up any time soon.

Not So Fast
June 10, 2002
David Gitlitz

For the Fed, reversing last year's rate cuts looks likely to stay on hold.

Where's the Risk?
April 23, 2002
David Gitlitz

For all the chatter about expansion, how come the markets won't bet on it?

The Fever Breaks
March 26, 2002
David Gitlitz

Today may have been an inflection point -- the market saw the media celebration over consumer confidence, but listened to Bob McTeer.

FOMC Preview
March 18, 2002
David Gitlitz

Wall Street may have already made up its mind, but Greenspan's careful signals mean a shift into neutral tomorrow is no better than a 50/50 proposition.

Recovery Buster
March 15, 2002
David Gitlitz

A recovery may be just beginning. Now let's hope the Fed doesn't fight inflation that's not there -- again!

Awaiting Greenspan
February 26, 2002
David Gitlitz

He'll be even more circumspect than usual tomorrow -- and that will be a disappointment for the rate-hike bears.

Now What?
January 28, 2002
David Gitlitz

The Fed is done "easing," but the deflationary shortfall of dollars remains unaddressed.

Greenspan's Message, and Why It Clocked Stocks
January 14, 2002
Donald Luskin

In both text and subtext, Greenspan's message was bad news for equities.

The 1990s Boom-and-Bust: Learning the Wrong Lessons
December 31, 2001
David Gitlitz and Donald Luskin

How can we hope to restore the prosperity of the 1990s when no one understands why it ended?

One Wild Ride
December 10, 2001
David Gitlitz

The pounding of the bond market reflects expectations that the Fed will soon switch into a tightening mode. It's more likely that even after tomorrow’s funds rate cut, the Fed won't be done.

Show Me The Money
November 19, 2001
David Gitlitz

Gold is back down to pre-September 11 levels, an indication of the risks to a market pricing for V-shaped recovery.

BoJ on the Potomac?
November 2, 2001
David Gitlitz

It's not premature to ask: Is the Fed following in the disastrous footsteps of the Bank of Japan?

Return to Normalcy... Unfortunately
October 12, 2001
David Gitlitz

The Fed is signaling that it's back to a rigid rate-targeting policy -- and they're even willing to drain liquidity to do it.

Looking Up
October 5, 2001
David Gitlitz

Just a relief rally? Maybe, but there are signs that Alan Greenspan may finally have gotten it right. And that could make a difference.

Alan Greenspan's Perfect Storm
September 19, 2001
Donald Luskin

Yesterday Greenspan's rate-targeting mechanism totally ruptured -- and it took the bond market down with it.

The Cut of Five Thousand Deaths
September 18, 2001
Donald Luskin

Greenspan's still playing follow-the-market when the market desperately needs a leader.

A Significant Fed Move
September 17, 2001
David Gitlitz

The Fed is going to meet emergency liquidity needs, whatever it takes. But we'll have to wait till the next FOMC meeting to see if they intend to make a permanent difference.

Financial Fallout: Here Comes the Rate Cut
September 11, 2001
Donald Luskin

This morning's terrorist attack will surely trigger new liquidity from the Fed.

Reckoning With Reality
September 10, 2001
David Gitlitz

The reality of a collapsing economy is catching up to the Fed. But is there anything the Fed can do to catch up to the reality of the collapsing economy?

Looking Under the Dust
September 5, 2001
David Gitlitz

This week's bond market massacre has been ugly -- but Alan Greenspan isn't through cutting rates!


Copyright 2001 through 2015 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.
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