“Lay all the
economists on
Wall Street end to end,
and they’d reach
the wrong conclusion.” |
David Gitlitz
Chief Economist
dgitlitz@trendmacro.com |
Most economics is pseudo-science -- it
sounds impressive, but it has no relevance to the real world of
investment decision making. It’s based on shopworn theories that have no
predictive power, and driven by useless backward-looking data. No wonder
Wall Street gives investors economics research for free.
Our kind of economics is different. It’s based on identifying and
understanding the changes in the environment that motivate changes in
human behavior. Because it’s those changes that determine growth,
inflation and all the other macroeconomic variables that move markets.
Clients don’t find us wasting our time (or theirs) doing unnecessary
surgery on stale historical statistics. Instead, we extract
forward-looking information from key macro data, from markets
themselves, and from our deep relationships with institutions such as
the Fed. We create proprietary insights that uncover the real
cause-and-effect linkages between human action and the economy.
Then we take the next step -- which typical Wall Street economists
rarely do at all, and never do well: we connect our economic insights to
actionable ideas in markets. |
